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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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John C
Unregistered




Bring on the Weather!
      #15714 - Fri Jul 02 2004 08:32 PM

How diatribe has life become with the sleepy seas giving nothing to eat up sound bites much less to start threads worth taking effort to join. And yet we seem to persist onward! Hence the title. Nature hasnít been very forthcoming this season, but hopefully will start to show her womanly wiles by mid July. Iíve noticed that the upper level winds have started to become more favorable for some tropical development in the Atlantic, GOM, and the Caribbean sea, and it is here I have turned my hopeful eyes and thread. We all know that the peak for a showstopper has to make an appearance by August, and I would like to see some action well before then. Iím counting the eyes and crisscrossing all seas that July brings Ďem on!!

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Bring on the Weather! [Re: ]
      #15715 - Fri Jul 02 2004 08:40 PM

John C.

Thanks for the new forum! I still foresee things picking up within the next two weeks. And I think we'll see Alex by 7/15.

For anyone who didn't read the last few posts of the last topic, John C. has entrusted me with "moderator" status. This is quite an honor, but with it comes responsibility. Until ED returns, I need you guys to keep your posts "on topic". Otherwise, I have been given the power to "EDit" posts. However, unlike Ed, as long as you're ON TOPIC, you have nothing to fear, and I have complete faith in the 'members' and most of the anon posters as well. What we really want to avoid are the Matthew's, Paloma's and Isaroni's. When it's slow, an off-topic post is fine (ala the Lightning winning the stanley cup). Just don't want the entire thread going down that road.

So, anyhow, I want to thank you guys in advance and hope you appreciate the status that John has imparted to me.

And, hey, let's let the tropical mischief begin already, huh?

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered




Re: Bring on the Weather! [Re: ]
      #15716 - Fri Jul 02 2004 09:01 PM

Say What John! Well....maybe some poetic justice in all this somewhere this season. But you're right, the environment seems to be getting right for tropical development. I actually thought that the wave at 50W Thursday was gonna blossom, but the ridge is pushing and shoving things along and south. But it is a sign that the season should be turning the corner and ready to produce. where is ole' Ed anyhow? As a fellow south Brevardian, I'd like to know if he's OK.

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John C
Unregistered




Ed Dunham [Re: Steve Hirschberg]
      #15717 - Fri Jul 02 2004 09:13 PM

For those concerned about Ed Dunham, I have not heard from Ed myself, I have just found his work phone # and since it is Friday night I will have to wait till Tuesday to try to call his Job to see what is going on. But thanks for all those of you who are concerned about Ed.
-John


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Bring on the Weather! [Re: Steve Hirschberg]
      #15718 - Fri Jul 02 2004 09:16 PM

First of all congrats Phil for being a moderator while ED is away and I know that you wll do an excellent job.

Agree about the season about to turn the corner as the MJO spills into the Atlantic so it is a matter of time to begin tracking the storms..

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Bring on the Weather! [Re: LI Phil]
      #15719 - Fri Jul 02 2004 09:19 PM

Congratulations LI Phil for making moderator status, just don't edit mine,kidding (lol) na, usually I try to stay weather topic related.
Sure hope Ed is OK though, hopefully everything is all right with him.
Don't see anything happening soon, think it'l be in late July before we see our first storm, maybe it'l be like another "Andrew" year (1992) where the A storm didn't develop until Aug.
I guess til then we can watch the W Pac as there almost always seems to be activity there.

TG


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Luis & AJ! [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15720 - Fri Jul 02 2004 09:29 PM

Thx for the kind words and encouragement.

You guys have nothing to fear (as far as editing goes). Always enjoy your posts and hope you continue to make more.

I think we're all wishing the season would crank, and I still think it will, just give it a week to ten days.

This will be my last post this evening, and possibly for the weekend, and I'll be away from computer access until Monday. So, help a fellow CFHCer out and keep everything on the up and up.

Think things will really start firing up after next week...and everyone, check the calendar for your Alex predictions...some of you may nail it right on the head.

Until such time as our Country (sorry James88 & Rich B) celebrates our 228th birthday, "Keep your eyes to the skies" and your fingers on your keyboards..

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Preparations [Re: ]
      #15722 - Fri Jul 02 2004 10:52 PM

Since it is still slow out there and we are not tracking any storms...figure I would throw something out there to talk about. How many people have taken precautions for their homes? Have you installed hurricane panels, added a "safe room", modified your roof, etc?

We had our house built about 1.5 years ago and it meets the new local hurricane code...actually the builder choose the hurricane code for the next county to the south which is more stringent. All walls are concrete block (steel reinforced w/ poured concrete). Upon completion I had all windows fitted with the stronger .063 aluminum panels - direct mount - and the patio covered with Armor Screen - a really cool product but a little expensive (www.armorscreen.com). I also had them include a single clear insert panel for some of the windows so I can see outside (for stronger storms such at a cat 3 or more I wouldn't put this in and I would evacuate). The garage door is rated at 130 mph but I still had it fitted for panels (figure if we have a major storm, it would get dented badly).

Also, what is the threshold most of you would evacuate...I would stay up to a Cat 3..we are on an island which would be cut-off to emergency response. Having a child makes a difference...otherwise I would stay through a Cat 4 for which the house is supposed to be able to withstand.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Preparations [Re: h2ocean]
      #15723 - Sat Jul 03 2004 05:59 AM

Is it just me, or does the wave east of the Windward Islands look like it is becoming slightly better organised?

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Preparations [Re: James88]
      #15724 - Sat Jul 03 2004 07:17 AM

The shear is too strong there to let the wave develop into a tropical entity although more rain we can expect in the islands which haved been in a surplus in terms of rainfall but no correlation between how the rainfall is in the islands with how the hurricane season will be.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Bring on the Weather! [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15725 - Sat Jul 03 2004 08:32 AM

Way to go LI Phil! Now you are in a higher tax bracket and get travel discounts Soon I hope we have something to watch!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Happy Birthday America [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #15726 - Sat Jul 03 2004 10:15 AM

Just checking in and also checking out. Will be away till Monday. Everyone behave and have a great Independence Day.

Peace & Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Happy Birthday America [Re: LI Phil]
      #15727 - Sat Jul 03 2004 01:32 PM

*yawns at Atlantic*

Have a great weekend everyone!


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
The USA at 228 and in decline... [Re: Kevin]
      #15729 - Sun Jul 04 2004 12:05 AM

too many people out to rip off too many others . Happy July 4th to everyone (including Ed wherever he is - btw Ed, give me back my access to "questionable"!!!)

Around the tropics this fine July 3rd we find TS Mindulle on its way to the Korean Peninsula. Otherwise 02NONAME in the EPAC got nudged off the shelf at NRL. It's remnant moisture will probably just head on west and die.

The Austrailian Government Board of Meteorology has released the June ENSO conditions and forecast. Coming as no surprise, the conditions are "Neutral". In the 5 month lead-time (and remember, we're in July where the skill gets better than in March-June), 3 of the models predict "WARM" conditions (LDEO4, JMA, SSES/OHIO). 8 models call for continued Neutral conditions and 1 is not available. In the 8 month lead time (which would put us in February 2005), 1 of 8 models reporting is calling for Warm while the other 7 favor continued Neutral.

Hurry! Hurry! Step righ this way...

As of yesterday, the high-res SST's (Actual) are running warmest off the West Coast of Florida (particularly the Keys), south of Cuba and across the Bahamas. Is this temporary or part of this season's water temperature evolution? How bout both?

High Res SST's

Southern Oscillation Index is neutral. Last 4 daily values have been 4.5, 3.5, -0.20 and 0.00. Probably a lull in the WESTPAC action for the next few days in response:

Long Paddock

NAO is neutral and forecast to remain roughly that way through the 15th of the month:

NAO Forecast from NCEP

PNA is neutral and forecast neutral to positive over the first 15 days of July.

PNA forecasted Neutral

The Artic Oscillation is negative, forecast to neutral and back to negative. You'll just have to take my word for it because I'm not providing the link .
---------------------------------------------
Currently on the playing field are a few waves traversing the Atlantic, some troughiness off the SE Coast. The wave that moved off of Africa recently is the first one with the SW pointing outflow jet. That's always a good sign that hurricane nirvana is just around the corner.

Monsoon's still craking in India and there's a real colorful wave moving across the Indian Ocean if you have access to a colorized IR of there. I don't feel like digging through all my links.

Here's the visible showing the monsoon from India

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: The USA at 228 and in decline... [Re: Steve]
      #15730 - Sun Jul 04 2004 12:11 AM

What was the point I was trying to make about all that Neutrality? Oh wait, it's not Ireland's or Switzerland's birthday

One last thing. The NWS Corpus Christi has begun to hint at effects of a potential wave in the Gulf toward next weekend. Additionally, the GFS has begun to play around as well. It's the holiday weekend, so I'm not in research mode right now. But you can find a couple links to the stories on S2K.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Potential for development [Re: Steve]
      #15734 - Sun Jul 04 2004 02:27 PM

The Atlantic is still fairly quiet, with 3 waves present. However, some computer models are suggesting that the wave located at 60 west, 17 north could track west-northwest towards the Carribean by mid-week with showers and thunderstorms and turn northwest towards South Florida by later in the week. Accuweather say that the wave will be monitored for further progress. Perhaps this wave could have a shot at becoming Alex or a tropical depression in a few days.

I have to agree that the Atlantic could be about to become active. The conditions are becoming more favourable. Still, it is probably going to be around a 50/50 chance. Since 1950, 31 out of 54 seasons have had some kind of tropical system form during July. It remains to be seen whether 2004 will join those years.

BTW, does Joe B. foresee anything in the near future?


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Potential for development [Re: James88]
      #15735 - Sun Jul 04 2004 03:39 PM

steve, usa in decline? i don't see anybody else in the world i'd want filling our shoes who could... so lets hope that isn't the case. regardless there are enough of us who won't go down quietly.
earlier on i made a post contrary to rob m's on how the tropics would behave this month.. if model trends are going to hold out then i might lose that one. the mid-latitude development i was looking for would need amplification and pattern shifs.. all those neutral signals paired with a zonal appearance on GFS by mid-month (once the current kinks get worked out) depth-charge my idea. steve gave the heads-up on the current wave (think it's really at 45w).. models have been a little wishy-washy with it, and have trended south. by mid-week we should have a good fix on its real potential. other waves will emerge.. two more significant ones appear on GFS plots.. the first is depicted as getting too far north and caught for a few days in the mid-atlantic in a ridge split.. the second pushes across to the caribbean much like the one currently entering the area should. out of the aforementioned systems i do expect a named tropical cyclone to develop. right now the pattern is transitioning and some of the trough energy east of florida (70w) may also try to fester, though there isn't a convincing model depiction of this.
anyhow, one other thing i'd like to note. wave speed right now appears a bit slower than normal.. low level easterlies don't seem quite as strong. as the ridge flattens out this may change, but i suspect that if the waves keep the throttle settings the same and MJO goes negative and knocks the shear down, systems will have a relatively easy time organizing. could be active later this month.
HF 1939z04july


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Potential for development [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15736 - Sun Jul 04 2004 04:04 PM

Sounds like we'll have to keep our eyes to the East for the next couple of weeks.

Wasn't it about this time last year that the pre-Claudette wave was making it's way towards the Caribbean? Pfff, early July and the 4th system was about to form. What a difference a year makes!


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Alex K
Unregistered




searching for Alex [Re: ]
      #15738 - Sun Jul 04 2004 11:12 PM

Ive been looking at the tropics everyday, and nothing is piquing my interest. Right now the only thing even remotely interesting is a wave emerging off Africa, which looks like it has a twist to it. However my wager would be that it dies a quick death over the eastern atlantic(Its still early) Anyway, it would be nice for my namesake storm to be a nice long lived Cape Verde one.

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
Re: searching for Alex [Re: Alex K]
      #15739 - Sun Jul 04 2004 11:29 PM

The longer range GFS model is showing conditions are improving and even show some lows developing...but of course that is a long way off. Here are some cool links to GFS models...

0Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/0/gfsslp.html

6Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/6/gfsslp.html

12Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/12/gfsslp.html

18Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/18/gfsslp.html

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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