James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Quote:
I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane?
Last year we had TD #2 form on the 11th June, but it was nowhere near as far east as this one. We're into July, and it's possible for a CV to form now, we just need the right wave to come along (and 95L could be the one).
(July6th) That was weird - couldn't access the site for about 12 hours. Oh well, it works again now.
Edited by James88 (Tue Jul 06 2004 08:59 AM)
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LI Phil
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James88,
Yeah Me too. Hopefully everythings OK. Down for a while here too,
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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At least no posts or users were lost - with any luck the problem's fixed. On another note, 95L seems to have held together fairly well overnight. Persistence is the key. Meanwhile, another impressive wave is poised to exit Africa in the next few hours. I wouldn't expect very much from that one though.
DO you think that our friend in the Atlantic will develop into 2004's first system, or is it another false alarm?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
well it seems 95L is still holding its own. I see the say showers have decreased in the past 6 hours, but the TNumbers from SSD would show the system is getting more organised - TOO WEAK at 0000UTC, but now 1.0/1.0 at 0530UTC. also give the system 25 knot winds but dont have an available pressure at present. Certainly looks to be a good candidate for development, and even say it is still possible depsite the decrease in shower activity overnight.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
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Maybe the decrease in shower activity is just a fluctuation, and therefore temporary. Time will tell I suppose. Whatever happens, this is the first serious candidate for Alex since the Gulf disturbance a few weeks ago. Maybe my guess of July 7th will be right. (If so, it was a pure guess and was not based on meteorological statistics - except perhaps the factor).
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Most recent visible imagery of 95L shows that a convective band is increasing in size and intensity to the north of the mid-level circulation, while significant convective activity continues to the south. No new TNumbers as yet, by i also notice the UK METO has been running test messages on this system too, and take it to a minimal tropical storm in 36 hours, and maintain it around 40 knots for the following few days.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cycloneye
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At least the wave has mantained alive although overnight convection decreased.Now let's see persistance of the circulation and form deep convection near the circulation and we will have a TD but still is far from that.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Jul 06 2004 12:09 PM)
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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There does seem to be some convection developing nearer to the centre, although it doesn't appear that deep. Still, it's making progress. As Cycloneye said it has done well to maintain its organisation overnight.
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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I agree Richard. I believe their came out before the increase in convection. Looks better now than last night when I went to bed. I'd bet chances are better than average that this will develop; that is, if it doesn't get runover by the next wave! Hey, Colleen! You enjoy the race? Friends of ours went also and got rained on (not zapped though). Stick around. THings will get real interesting this season. Good to see you back in the saddle again Ed! Cheers all!!
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summercyclone
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There was a TS that formed in June a few years ago out by the Cape Verdes, don't remember the name and no time to look it up right now, but, you are correct Colleen---it was the earliest a storm had formed so far east while records have been kept, as I recall.
sc 
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LI Phil
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SC et. al.
'Twas Bertha, 1996. (actually formed early July, but I think that's the one you mean...)
Bertha
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Jul 06 2004 02:19 PM)
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James88
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I notice that Bertha passed over Long Island as a tropical storm after making landfall in NC as a CAT 2 a couple of days previously. What was the storm like for your neck of the woods Phil?
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LI Phil
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Funny thing about Bertha. Passed through fairly late in the evening. At the time I was living with my wife in an apartment so I didn't have to be worried about flying deck debris, tomato plant destruction, tree limbs through the window, etc., (and wasn't quite as into the weather as now), so aside from being a rainmaker, it was kinda "ho-hum". We had some winds (again, nothing to write home about). As a whole, Bertha wasn't much by the time she passed through. No downed trees, no power loss, no flooding. Thanks for asking though. We've had much worse from the copious nor'easters that pass through once or twice a year.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I suppose that by and large, most of the systems that approach LI are much weaker than they were previously (except for Gloria, to name an example).
BTW, it is looking like we'll be experiencing something with similar conditions to those in the UK by tomorrow. The met-office here is warning of a system that will cut across the country, bringing up to 5cm of rain and gusts in excess of 50mph. Nothing big, but it's something.
As for 95L, it's looking a little ragged compared to a few hours ago. Still, the environment is not unfavourable for development, so this one will need to be watched as it makes its way across the Atlantic.
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LI Phil
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James,
Actually, LI has had it's fair share of big 'uns (though nothing like Andrew, Camille, Labor Day Cane, Great Galveston,etc.), but pretty powerful none the less. Thing is, most canes to hit LI are Cat I-II (except for a few), but they are moving at an incredible forward speed (LI Express, for example, moving at 70MPH!!!), so those to the right of the eye really get whalloped. And except for Gloria, we really haven't seen anything bad for a long time...which totally lends itself to complacency. Unfortunately, the NY media hyped the S--- out of Isabel, and we got almost nada from that, so the next time one comes near, people will blow off the threat. Some of LI/NY's worst storms came before any of us were born.. 1815, 1825, 1841, 1893; others were a long time ago: 1938 (LI Express) 1944, 1954 (Carol), 1955 (Diane), 1960 (Donna). Statistically, we're more than due.
Here's a link to some LI canes. Hope you find it interesting.
LI Canes
Will have to go look at 95L. Joe B doesn't think anything will come of it for now, but if it can drift to the west carib...which the is intimating...then it could possibly become Alex.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks for the interesting link, Phil. I stand corrected - sounds as though the people of LI have endured some powerful storms over the years. Hopefully, 2004 won't be one of those years.
Talking about the LI Express - 70MPH!!! Wow! When was the last time a hurricane moved that fast? I would have thought a hurricane moving at such a fast pace would have trouble in maintaining CAT 3 intensity. Obviously not in this case. I don't like the sound of those 183mph gusts either! 
Good luck for the season ahead!
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LI Phil
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James,
The "LI Express" holds the record for the fastest moving hurricane EVER.
Check this out!
May take you a while to get through, but it's interesting reading during the slow times.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks Phil, that really was interesting reading. That was one ferocious storm! Not exactly small either, at 500 miles wide. It must have been a truly terrifying storm to experience. We really are very lucky to live in an age of satellite technology and early warnings. It was lucky that the hurricane had weakened from CAT 5 status!
I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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I was beginning to worry because Phil was so concerned. This whole thread reads a lot like my highschool yearbook. I dated someone named Ed (common name) and there was more about Ed in my yearbook than me. Nope didn't marry him but am sure somewhere someone is still talking about him. Maybe its the name.
Either way I'm glad you are okay and you have a really concerned friend.
Is that wave going to really develop?
And, I have a question.
If you live in a hurricane prone area is it safe to have air conditioning ducts installed on the roof out to an addition. I'm a little worried because we have that and it would make sense to me that a really weak storm could rip those AC duct work off and let air into the house.
Is this possible and how strong would the storm have to be?
Or am I worrying too much.
Welcome home Ed
Cat
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LI Phil
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>>> I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
Yeah--as far as tropical storms go. The worst part was the power outages. We were out for six days, others had to wait up to two weeks!
We've also had some nasty nor'easters and ice stroms that weren't much fun. I'd go through a Gloria again as long as I knew all the food in my fridge wouldn't spoil  . Don't think I'd want part of a LI Express though (at least not to the East).
Back on topic...the wave off Africa definitely needs to be watched, as does the even stronger one in it's wake. Should these survive the trek across the pond, they will definitely be causing some trouble mid-next week. We might get Alex & Bonnie in the same breath.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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