Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Just a 'mixed bag' of comments on the Atlantic basin and its potential for future activity. At the moment there are no real development areas although the old Invest 95L tropical wave remains active and has maintained its structure. At 10/19Z the wave extended from 16N 56W to 19.5N 53W and it was moving westward at 15-20mph. Although there is a slim chance for future development, current organization is poor. On Monday afternoon, the wave will encounter increasing southwesterly shear south of Puerto Rico.
In the western Gulf of Mexico a tropical wave is interacting with a weak upper level low near 23N 93W (at 10/18Z). Diverging air to the north is aiding the development of afternoon convection however the system is disorganized and additional development is not likely. The system is moving to the west northwest at 20-25mph and will bring squalls to south Texas and northeast Mexico.
The eastern Atlantic is dominated by high pressure with strong ridging to the south of the high center. This pattern has kept the far to the south of its expected position for this time of the year. The extends west southwestward from the west African coast to 4N 43W. Strong waves that exit the west African coast are shoved southwestward and cannot develop to any significant degree until they get west of 50W. Hurricane Carol in 1953 is a good example of this pattern.
Regarding the potential for a near term 'first storm of the season', only 7 'first storms' have developed during the period from 07/06 through 07/26 over the past 100 years - not very good odds. The last one was TS Arthur on 07/14/2002.
With the current position and the current pattern, 1953 is looking more like a classic analog year (go take a peek at Dr Gray's latest analog years). I realize that 1953 did have TS Alice form in May (05/25), however many of you did feel that we had an early season Caribbean system this year. The next 1953 system was Hurricane Barbara which formed on 08/11. The storm totals for 1953 were 14/6/4 - with 6 U.S. landfalls. So far at least, the general pattern for this season seems to mirror 1953.
Cheers,
ED
(minor corrections - 07/11/04)
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Ed,
Thanks for the new thread...
1953 may have been 14/6/4, with 6 U.S. landfalls, but (unless I'm reading the map wrong), only one was a CAT 1 at landfall. All others were TS or less. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). I guess that's good news, in that there was not a lot of destruction/deaths. I'd need to do some more research to truly form an opinion (i.e. 2001 Allison was "only" a TS, but she sure did put a world of hurt on Houston).
Other than 1953, do you see any other analogs? And do you think 95L has any kind of shot at development? Thanks.
Cheers,
LI Phil
95L - very little chance - it would probably take the system at least two days to organize - by then, the wind shear will settle the question.
1953:
Barbara - Cat II (90 knots) at landfall
Florence - Cat I (70 knots) at landfall
Other analogs are 1990 and 2003, but the pattern is poor for 1990 (although is good) and marginal for 2003. I think that 1953 is the best analog.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 10 2004 06:56 PM)
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Great anaylisis ED that you did about what is going on now and more important how the season will pan out with the patterns shaping up and your 1953 analog year is a good one to look at.I haved seen in other boards that some people are throwing the towel for an active season but in reality the real season starts in august.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
The waters are very warm in the Atlantic; all that is needed is for the right atmospheric conditions than we will see a great 'take-off'
--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Even though the wave to the east of Puerto Rico is approaching an area unfavourable for development, it sure looks impressive this morning. It is supporting deep convection and is holding together well.
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
just like to comment that for trackers, this is the worst possible kind of start to follow a season like last year, when we were already on the third storm
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Very true. A year ago today Tropical Storm Claudette was emerging into the GOM, and the wave that would be Danny was making it's way through the eastern Atlantic. Now we have little if anything significant in the Atlantic basin. Maybe next week will yield something...
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
James, there is definitely an impressive convective burst there, but too much dry air and sheer ahead...probably DOA.
Bugs, totally agree, as last year we had Ana in April & Claudette by now. Also, it looks as if we don't get something in the next week, we may not see any tropical development until mid-August  .
LI Phil
PS: can anyone remember when was completely devoid of ANY activity in July? 
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sun Jul 11 2004 11:16 AM)
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
No tropical development until mid-August?! When was the last time that happened? Most seasons have at least a tropical depression long before then.
If this were to be the case, wouldn't the storm totals for this year have to be lowered? That is unless we have a very active September and October.
|
tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
|
|
This wave coming off Africa looks good, but of course they all do. Keeping my fingers cross that maybe this will be our first one! I'm getting really bored without any action.... Hopefully we won't have to wait till mid-august.
--------------------
Derek Sutherland
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Ed/Bros C---4th try to post this. System keeps eating it, there is a problem.
Much truncated post:
Gloomer/Doomers: you said the same things in past seasons and look what happened every time. Relax, it is still along time till August.
We are having a 'real Florida summer' for the first time in years here in the Big Bend--raining almost every day. We had 17.43" in June--a near record!
sc 
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Can everyone please relax a bit and take a break from all the specialization of hurricane prognosis. Stop with the and the dust and the constant worrying about the MAO and the negative tilts and just rely a bit on climo. In the end climo usually rules out.
I seriously doubt we will get to August 1st without a system with cords. Some little cloud puff somewhere will eventually spin enough to get something going as the water warm up across the basin.
Something about the way the system looked over the yucatan Friday before it moved to fast through the BOC and the way the wave moving too slowly ne of PR makes me think that the pattern is becomming more tropical, more in tune with the start of the season.
I'd say we are within ten days of something happening, late July though when I wouldn't venture to say.
For now.. enjoy the day, watch the clouds, sit in front of a fan or under a tree, read a book, listen to music, eat a fudgesicle and relax... its going to happen sooner or later and if I'm going to bet my money then it will be on climo not initials and worrying weathermen shooting the breeze all over the web and back again.
Bobbi
|
Steve Hirschb..
Unregistered
|
|
Amen Bobbi! It will happen when it will. Did Saharan Dust just get invented or something? And s and , and and QBO and NAO and GPO and LMNO and,,,,,,,,,,,,  Relax....They will spawn soon enuf!!
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
I mentioned it earlier today, but the wave to the east of Puerto Rico seems to be holding itself together well. It is heading into an area unfavourable for development, so it should not be with us for much longer. Even so, it came back to life just as many of you predicted. If conditions were a little more favourable, this one would almost certainly become Alex.
Also, the wave in the GOM looks quite healthy this evening. It's moving inland, so it won't form into anything, but it looks like Mexico and Texas may feel its effects fairly soon. Also, check out the violent thunderstorms over Florida.
Looking ahead, there is a potent system currently over Africa, that looks like it could become a strong wave if it lasts to the Atlantic. This one is further north than its predecessors.
Sometime in the next couple of weeks...
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Steve H. LOL. Of course climo will take care of some of the action, it's just that all of those acronyms do play a roll in tropical storm formation, some more than others. is probably the most important, but they all do affect climo to some degree (no pun intended). I won't argue over how much. As long as mother nature needs to vent some heat...well, then, she will.
Peace,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Looks like the tropical wave that moved inland over northeast Mexico developed a weak circulation (near 22N 98.5W at 11/21Z) just prior to landfall.
Having second thoughts about the amount of activity this season? Check the Storm Forum for some interesting statistics.
Cheers,
ED
|
Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
|
|
Yes, for the ridge to settle in in the Atlantic and the strong easterly flow off the atlantic to ease, it may be a couple of weeks before we get some action. (I was being facecious..if you didn't know.) Having said that something will develop this week But I'm still going with my 13/9/3. Cheers!!
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
A real sense of deja vu watching that wave just barely pull together before it went inland and how many times have we seen that? Over and over and over at the start of the season.
Think this is just about the start of the season.. will happen soon.
As for what Phil said.. there are factors that are important, DUST lol .. but what we don't really know yet is the mathematical equation (if i didnt spell that right please correct me here, gotten so bad at spelling lately) but...
We don't know the X + L + M - U -Z + 2/3 of I and how it all goes together... we can see the parts but not the whole picture.
And, the sum total anyway of the whole mathematical problem is CLIMO.. as much as I HATE to admit that, it's true.
Just simple fact.. CLIMO RULES
annoying as all ...but true on almost any given Sunday
Bobbi
|
mp3reed
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA
|
|
Very Interesting! Hot in West Texas. Send Rain
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
As of 18Z the only model of interest (as always) is the AVN/GFS w/ a good wave in about a week or so? I think the slow time will end soon & in this month
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
