CFHC
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Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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And the system off the carolinas might form quicker than expected also...
The storm in the Gulf is near land and will not have much time to strenghten, but it will cause a lot of rain and some gusty winds along the coast. It is expected to hook west, but as it looks fairly healthy everyone should watch it a bit.
Atlantic chances now...
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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Both could go either way at this point, we'll have to wait and see just a few more days.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I noticed in the discussion for TD#2 that it said the LLC was displaced south or southwest of the mid level center. Does this mean that it could stay over the water a little longer? I still see a hint of a west movement to it already. It is so hard to tell ,though. It also looks like it could be stationary. I have a hard time trying to follow the direction of these things by just looking at a loop that only lasts for about an hour or so.
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Alex k
Unregistered
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TD 2 will move inland within 12 hours, if it does not stall or drastically turn. However, on the radar loops it appears to be only inching north. Let's hope it doesn't stall and pull an Allison. I doubt conditions are right for it to just sit there.
As for the Low off South Carolina. It looks healthier, and I'd agree with about a 60% percent chance of anything becoming of it. Already it is causing rain over the Southeast. Where would it go? Answers would be appreciated.
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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NOTE: The discussion on the rest of the Atlanitc basin will be available soon, including the discussion on the east coast low!
FORECAST POSTED: 8/04/02/ 5:30 PM EDT
CURRENT ACTIVE ATLANTIC STORMS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2
At 5 PM EDT the center of tropical depression two was located near latitude 29.0 north and longitude 88.5 west or about 85 miles south-southeast of Biloxi, Mississippi. The depression is moving toward the north at 6MPH.
Model Forecasts
AVN- Slow NNW drift towards New Orleans. Then, a curve to the west towards Houston with a turn WSW.
CMC- Slow track towards the NNW over southeast Lousiana. Then takes a WNW to NW track until the remants reaches Dallas.
MM5- Keeps the low pressure area right along the coast moving west towards Houston. Not much weakening since its half over water.
NOGAPS- NW track into southeast Lousiana towards Alexandria. Then dissipating after surning SW between Houston and Brownsville.
UKMET- Takes low just south of the Lousiana coast and then takes the center inland near Lake Charles.
ECMWF- Also keeps low near the coast.
So as you can see the models are generally in good agreement. The big question is how close to the coast will this tropical depression move. Either way, the depression will not weaken all that much during the first 24 hours over land. Tropical storm Allison is a good example. Allison stayed inland for a week but didn't weaken all that much. Allison was close enough to the coast, that it still had a moisture source.
Mobile and Pensacola are already starting to get some of the outer rain bands. However, it is Mississippi and Louisiana that will get the bulk of the rainfall. 5-10 inches of rainfall can be anticipated with this system. Now if the depression stalls, we could easily see areas with over ten inches of rainfall, especially if training occurs. There is a lso the potential for flodding, especially New Orleans since the city is below sea level. But the flooding rains won't be the only problem. The West Nile virus is spreading across the state and heavy rainfall will definitely not help the situation.
FORECAST TRACK The models are somewhat split as to how close the low center will move near the coast. Some take it right into southeast Lousiana while the others take it west along the coast. Either way, there won't be much in the way of weakening over the next 48 hours. But if the low were to stay close to the coast, we probably wouldn't see much in the way of weakening at all and possibly some slight strengthening. The current thinking, is that the center of circulation will pass just south of the city of New Orleans, unlike the National Hurricane Center's forecast of the low moving north of the city. After that, the low may exit the coast for a brief period of time just east of Houston, before making a second landfall in Texas. But we aren't talking about this low hitting Texas as a tropical depression or anything. We will be updating the forecast track later today.
FORECAST INTENSITY The forecast intensity depends mostly on the forecast track more than anything else. If the low stays near the coast, the depression will likely sustain 25-35MPH winds over the next 48 hours. But we think that the low will move slightly farther north, over land. Only slight weakening is forecasted over the first 24 hours of landfall. The National Hurricane Center may not downgrade the depression until its near the Baton Rouge area. Now there is still the potential of the depression developing into a tropical storm just before landfall. But the system probably won't have enough time to devleop much more.
If the depression does begin to slow down, it could mean three things...#1 The chances of the TD becoming a minimal tropical storm are increasing as the center stays over water. #2 Southeast Louisian will likely see more than 5-10 inches of rain in some areas, as the system would be a very slow mover. And #3 it could stay closer to the coast that forecasted. The system would give a high to its north more time to build south, which would force the system more westerly.
All residents from Biloxi to Houston should closely moniotr this depression. The current thinking is that the remnants of TD #2 will be in the Houston area roughly in 72 hours.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The LLC is moving west to westnorthwest (just slightly). We can expect this to go inland in 24 hours (at the very most) or (more likely) less at any rate.
The SC system is status quo since this afternoon. The convection continues to try to wrap around the low. It should be a TD by tommorrow. That is, if the covnection persists over night. It could well affect the Fla. peninsula by mid-late week. It could be anything from a TD to a strong category 1 hurricane at this point. I'm aiming right for the middle of the spectrum attm with modest effects on the Florida Peninsula. Things could change for better or worse...interests living on the Eastern part of the peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Poll... 
Kevin 
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jimw
Unregistered
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does not deserve a name another weak low,lets save bertha for a real CV system.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I've been checking out the data from the buoys out where the center of this thing is suppose to be and I'm getting confused. The wind directions don't seem to be matching up they way they should. Can someone check this out and let me know where I'm going wrong as far as reading these reports?
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Just upgraded to Bertha. I am surprised. I didn't think it was going to anything!
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I noticed that on the new advisory for the newly formed Bertha that Galveston went from a total of 9 to 15. Is there anyone out there that is pretty sure of where this is going or does it seem like there are alot of different ways for this to pan out?
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I know the focus is on Bertha but whats the deal with the low off the southeast coast. Could this move back towards florida? Haven't had much of a chance to look over data on this.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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so they got a gale force wind obs in a squall near the ctr.. well, thats all it takes. bertha is right on the coast and doesnt look convectively like its going to get much stronger.. and in terms of areal coverage is tiny (like danny in '97). shawn the system would have to go due west or something to get to you.. looks like it's going onshore first half of tomorrow though. frank p and biloxi and steve in old metairie are the only guys likely to see much out of this one.. and it will probably only be rain and a stiff breeze. sometimes slow moving gulf systems will linger near the shore or track back over the water.. just have to play this one by ear. it's very weak.. 1008mb or so.. weak systems under weak steering currents mean hell to forecasting. the models pretty much want to move it along west as they analyze it as shallow. wont really move west until it starts decaying.. probably after it moves onshore tomorrow. bertha pretty much means a good rainfall in coastal mississippi and southeast louisiana for now.
well.. over here off my coast i dont know what to make of 99L. the apparent low is maybe 50-75 miles SW of charleston, maybe drifting S or SSE. convection is inland over the low country and coastal georgia, and some more is off to the east. another weak system that will be difficult to forecast. it has to get some core convection going before it will deepen much. 1015mb is a pretty high central pressure... that has to go down some. anyhow if it stays weak it will linger off the coast. if it develops then the next amplification will probably get it in a couple of days. otherwise it can develop later and come west when the ridge revs back up.
kind of tough to make any confident forecasts on 99L. fair confidence that bertha will go ashore and slowly weaken, probably turn west. not too exciting, but at least something of minor consequence finally developed.
HF 0040z05august
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The local weather guys here are saying that it will end up on our door step, at least the remains of it anyway. I really thought that this site would be jumping with a storm in the gulf. Maybe because it's too close to land and will not have a shot at becoming a hurricane. Remember, it wasn't suppose to become a named storm either. I think the verdict is still out on Bertha.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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on bertha shawn? whos bertha? oh that midlevel swirl in the gulf, um the over did this one. It fired convection in the day time heating today like yesterday and day before. Most true depressions and storms take the night time TS build up.
Bertha will be just showers by morning.
Off the carolinas is the true one to watch,, but where it goes is still the main question and that matters on how far the jet comes down to pick it up and how fast the trough moves out. 
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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did a recheck on some closer in obs.. well, bertha is moving ashore. check the SE louisiana radar loop.. the center is drifting west and crossing the coastline near venice.. on the delta at least. well, if it moves west it will hug the coastline and stay at least partially intact. thats IF. obs at venice last hour were light rain, wind N 22mph gusts to 30, pressure at 1012 and falling. there does exist the possibility that it will intensify, i guess.. though id put money on it staying landed enough to start weakening. anyhow, shawn, you can start boarding up your windows and running for the hills any time, cause some of it will probably end up around you. naw, maybe you can go puddle jumping. or something.
anyhow 99L is on radar drifting SE. it is basically a weak convective swirl with some banding-like convection well to the east, with some sea breeze type thunderstorms onshore. this is another classic case of low here, convection there. remember, the 2002 theme? call me a spoilsport, but the two most likely scenarios i see here are: 1) the convection and swirl never meet, and begat cristobal.. or 2) the amplification to the north causes a baroclinic rush and organization, and thus we get a front runner that resembles arthur in every way, shape, and form.
possibilities outside that are certainly more interesting.. but after watching goofy system after goofy system i find it hard to conjure a scary system. those became rare about 40 years ago.. and are now believed to be extinct. dr. gray must be beating his head against his desk over the last two years.
HF 0125z05august
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Agree HF the system off southeast coast will be intresting! Eta brings this due s into bahamas...while AVN shows it being picked up by the trough. I'll take a look over additional models to see what track there on.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well looked over additional models. The ETA...UKMET move this system south towards bahamas, while ...AVN...and pick this system up in trough. Guess it's wait and see.
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