Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
What kind of storm magnet does Shawn keep in his pocket...it seems to draw every system toward Texas. 
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
It's hard to say exactly what is happening with TD#3, there are actually several things at once!
However, it looks like either the mlc is shearing to the sw away from the LLC, OR, the LLC is reforming to the SW..any way you look at it, no e or se motion at this time, and if a sw motion is materializing, that spells out a possible threat to Fl.
A shallow system (weak) will be more likely to move sw in the ll flow; as the system gets stronger, it is more likely to move with the UL flow, e and NE, unless it gets 'left behind'.
Timing is, as always, everything!
IHS,
Bill
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I must say it looks like the ramains of Bertha are heading right for the water again. I looked at the radar from Baton Rouge and it clearly shows the circulation headed more in a SSW motion than SW. If this continues then it will have alot of water to try and reform in. My verdict is still out on TD#3. I'm certainly leaning towards a threat to someone along the gulf coast, though.
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Ok where is this so called ESE motion that's in 11am advisory? I have been looking at this close up and if anything it's nearly stationary or drifting SW. is holding off on an advisory to upgrade and will wait for confirmation from Recon. This needs to be closely watched...
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
Jason's,
What do you guys think?????
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
It looks as if things are getting going out there.
The winds are picking up and the pressure continues to fall.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41010
|
garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
|
|
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (AL032002) ON 20020806 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020806 1800 020807 0600 020807 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.3N 76.3W 29.2N 76.4W 28.1N 75.9W
BAMM 30.3N 76.3W 29.9N 76.4W 29.4N 75.6W
A98E 30.3N 76.3W 30.7N 76.1W 30.9N 74.4W
LBAR 30.3N 76.3W 30.0N 75.6W 30.8N 74.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020808 0600 020808 1800 020809 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.4N 75.1W 27.6N 74.2W 29.0N 71.4W
BAMM 29.1N 73.1W 30.4N 68.9W 35.4N 62.3W
A98E 29.9N 74.6W 30.1N 74.0W 28.8N 73.2W
LBAR 33.0N 72.6W 36.8N 69.1W 48.6N 58.1W
SHIP 47KTS 51KTS 53KTS
DSHP 47KTS 51KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.3N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 160DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 32.0N LONM24 = 77.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
After looking at Vis loop it appears the LLC on outside NE side of convection is moving east, although the question is whether a new LLC is developing under deep convection?
|
Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
|
|
Sat. pic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Looks like it is 150 miles East of Cape Canaveral.
Radar:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kcof&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RegionalRadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none
You can see the storm swirling about.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Is gone. Got shredded by the shear. If there isn't one under the canopy of convection this thing is toast. If it's there, the east coast of Florida may have problems. Cheers!!
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Don't rule out possible reformation later in week.
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
Reformation????
There is still something there now. In fact, it must be relocating itself because the pressure at the bouy east of Cape Canaveral has dropped to 29.77. Down .11 in 5 hours.
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
Its under the convection on close up satelite its clearly visible headed off under the convection, leaveing somthing behind that died or is almost dead. Pressure's at the bouy,s off cape canaveral are quickly dropping. Down to 29.82, and 29.78 the bouy south of north carolina is 29.72. So pressures have only started dropping sence the LLCc went under the convection to sw closer to florida.
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
where are you getting the closeup sat. pics
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Robert, wouldn't recon have taken a trip down there to see if there was another LLC. I'm very aware of the pressure drops and they appear significant but don't you thin /and or Recon would have picked up on a reformed center.
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Post deleted by Joe
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
This may be a better link... http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurr.html
|
Houstontracker
Unregistered
|
|
Radar and surface observations show that Bertha is near Lafayette, LA and heading SW toward the Gulf.
Will be interesting to see what happens, I think there is a good shot she regenerates. Steve Lyons and have started to show a lot more interest in it. People along the Southwest Louisiana and Texas coasts should keep up with the latest on this system.
Here she comes Shawn.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I know I'm going to sound like my good pal Joe B. when I say this but I stated a few posts back about how I didn't think we were done with Bertha yet. I remember someone who was " anonymous" acted like I was crazy for saying that. Sometimes these gut feelings I get are for real. Considering what happened last year with Allison, I knew it was a possibility. I'm not sure exactly how much she can regain but she could possibly get back to storm status. It is getting to the point where these models are almost useless. When you add in what is going on with TD#3, I think we are in store for some very interesting next couple of days. What do ya'll think?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I;ll give Bertha a good shot at regenerating. Anything that has maintained a good circulation and enters the warmth of the GOM deserves attention, specially with the ridge to the north. TD#3 is perplexing. Anyone get the final recon info?? Seems like on the loop, he LLC I can see is at about 29.8N/76.5W, drifting SW. Unless there's some other LCC I can't see under the convection. Seems the area just ENE of the deep convection is the center of rotation. Hard to argue with Dr. Avila when he is so confident that a shortwave will come and rip this TD NE...he's pretty good. but that remains to be seen. Bertha may be the best thing to look at right now. These will at least keep us busy until the Atlantic can get going. I haven't even looked that far east today. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
