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#98L 90% odds SE Coast should watch. NEW #99L easy 50%+ odds. Caribbean threat next week. Also a Low in the W Gulf. Season has arrived.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Barry) , Major: 317 (Michael) Florida - Any: 317 (Michael) Major: 317 (Michael)
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S at 6 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE*
      #17675 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:38 AM

I made a post earlier on the main board about possibilities as I saw them with our current T.D. My money (monopoly money at least) is on there being a Bonnie in the Caribbean shortly, one that doesn't take the quick-out option of the official forecast. Much of the board is on board with this becoming Bonnie, but there are voices of dissent among the throngs of hurricane mongerers here, notably my dear compatriot in moderation Ed, who favors a less vigorous and even more unpredictable system, and the heretic Rabbit who is obviously descended from the red-eyed beast guarding the cave in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, and not the animated carrot-chomping varmint he purports to be. Nee!
Anyhow, the challenge:
Watch the development of the tropical system tomorrow. At any time prior to 02z on August 5th (that's 10 PM Eastern Daylight for all of you civilians out there), make a forecast of position (1/10 degree lat/lon) and intensity (wind kt/pres mb) for 70 and 94 hours out from the deadline (that would be 00Z on August 8th [8PM Saturday] and 00Z on August 10th [8PM Monday]). Then go the extra mile with an explanation of why you see the system doing what you predict, if you so desire, as long or short as you wish. If of course T.D. 2 opens up prior to tomorrow evening then the challenge is off.
So anyhow, get your thoughts on our system ready to slap down on the thread tomorrow evening.
HF 0438z04august


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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17690 - Wed Aug 04 2004 07:49 AM

T.D.#2 is a wash. It will play around with the back wash of the current hurricane.The official demise will occur at 20.2N and 65.8W give or take a 10th of a degree as it gets on the bandwagon going around the Bermuda High. It will be like following in the wake of a Semi truck, in a Volkswagon mimi bus with no stabilzers on the axel.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: DustDuchess]
      #17704 - Wed Aug 04 2004 10:55 AM

Okay I'll give this a shot.
TD2 or Bonnie. Will not make the Nward curve prior to passing 16.2N and 75.4W. Pressure 1000mb, and that should give us a wind of 40 gusting to 55kts. I could cheat and look on the progs that I have but NHC doesn't seem to be doing very good with this one. Model Busting Bonnie will make history right behind Alex. Right now, 15Z, they'd be better off with a Caribbean map and darts!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: DustDuchess]
      #17707 - Wed Aug 04 2004 11:09 AM

Can't top them two posts for both verbosity and analogic genius, so I shan't even try.

>>> the heretic Rabbit who is obviously descended from the red-eyed beast guarding the cave in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, and not the animated carrot-chomping varmint he purports to be. Nee!

HF, LOL.

As for the challenge...I don't change my predictions as the wind blows like some on this board...that may not be good meterology, but I enjoy crow very much. I can also admit when I'm wrong...which happens to be quite often...

Therefore, I'm sticking with my prediction that Bonnie WILL develop...however, based on the current forward speed...what the hell is she doing? That trof is extremely strong, but is it strong enough and deep enough to slow my Bonnie down and pick her up? And, just how far west will she get before she gets picked up...does she get picked up, become Bonnie, and then get sheared to death on the high mountains of Hispaniola? Or does she sneak between DR and PR and get into the Bahamas? Or does she avoid the trof altogether and slide into the graveyard, survive, and make nasty in the GOM? Tough choices. Even though I have until this e'en to decide, I shall valiantly (and probably suicidally) choose now. "Choose wisely, grasshoppa".

Gotta go with the gut here, and the gut says, "feed me."

Oh, yeah, the forecast...so sorry.

Will go with the speed demon theory...misses the trof...survives the graveyard...gets into the GOM. Then heads straight for Rickonboat as a CAT V.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 04 2004 05:28 PM)


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Carl
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17717 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:01 PM

8 pm Sat. - 21.3, 83.1, 55 mph, 998 mb
8 pm Mon. - 25.6, 84.2, 80 mph, 981mb


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: LI Phil]
      #17718 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:06 PM

Not thinking the TD #2 is going to organize anytime soon. Not thinking TD #2 is going to follow the 11am TPC charts and head north around the 72nd Parallel. Am thinking the system will be farther west (as per some of the tropical models) and more likely a menace to Central America as a wave than anything else. But that's the boring scenario. This is a challenge. I'm saying that in 70 hours, the center of whatever is there (or the mean wave axis) is around 19.2N and 82.3W and slowing down. Out to 94 hours, I like a position around 22.5N, 83.1W.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: LI Phil]
      #17719 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:10 PM

I'll probably be totally wrong, but I'll give it a try. I think that the current forward speed of the depression will prevent it from getting significantly stronger and it will therefore not feel the effect of the trough as early. I think that it will make the NW turn and pass through between Cuba and Haiti in around 2 days from now (8/6) as a weak tropical storm. At 00Z on 8/8 I would put Bonnie at about 28.N 74.0W as a 55kt TS.

2 days later, I would put her at 36.0N 69.0W as a 65kt hurricane.

Just a very rough and very crude guess. That's if it doesn't dissipate at the next advisory.


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17727 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:42 PM

It's rabbit hunting season.

a) I think it will survive, or come back to life after being downgraded.
b) The trough will become our friend, not our enemy, by doing us a favor and slowing this train down, but will not finish the job, leaving us
c) A weak, but getting ready to get it's act together, TS

0Z Sat 18.5N 77.0W 40 kts 1000MB
0z Mon 23.0N 80.5W 35 kts 1005MB


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: joepub1]
      #17730 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:46 PM

Well I have been off the mark this season be here we go.... I think she will miss the trof...and if can hold on some??
12Z Sat 17.7/ 73.1 45Kts, 1005Mb.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: James88]
      #17732 - Wed Aug 04 2004 12:50 PM

Think TD#2/wave will eventually slow down south of Hispaniola, develop into a strong TD or weak TS south of Cuba, then feel the effects of the trough and be pulled towards S. Fla still as a weak or moderate TS, then race NE from there and develop into a weak hurricane. Aug 8th pos: 22.0/81.0 , Aug 10th pos: 32.5/75.0.
This is just a guess., and of course this may never happen if the TD/wave totally falls apart and it's remnants continue towards Ctrl America.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17738 - Wed Aug 04 2004 01:52 PM

I think it will follow more or less the current forecast, but further to the west, and instead of crossing over Hispanola, will cross over eastern Cuba, moving up into the Bahamas as a strong TS and then get pulled out by the trough and become a hurricane.

Aug 8 22.4/77.5 50 kts
Aug 10 33.2/71.5 70 kts

Bill


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17742 - Wed Aug 04 2004 02:13 PM

I am looking at correlation between TD2 and Hurricane David; and for no other reason, I believe that TD2 will be TSBonnie (surviving the crossing) at 78.8W 27.with 994MB with winds at 60MPH at 90 hrs from the deadline and will be Hurricane Bonnie at 81.0W 28.1N with pressure at 968 and winds at 90 MPH from 70 hours from the Deadline.

Here's hoping for good looking Bonnie but a no hitter for lives and property.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17743 - Wed Aug 04 2004 02:17 PM

Oh yeah. 25k on Saturday, 40 on Monday

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
i'll wear the dunce cap if i have to [Re: Steve]
      #17775 - Wed Aug 04 2004 08:44 PM

open wave they say, but i'm entertaining other ideas.
there was a stupey-guy error in my former post, the forecast times i really meant were 00Z08/08 and 00Z08/10. so that's 70/118 past the 02z08/05 deadline.. but anyway.
my prediction:
system reclassified tomorrow as a depression/tropical storm upon recon flight. tracks wnw to nw, to a near stall position around the windward passage over the weekend. ridge builds back early next week and it rolls on.
00z08august: 18.5N/76.0W 55kt/995mb
00z10august: 23.5N/78.5W 90kt/965mb
crow or glory!
HF 0044z05august


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
TD2 is not done with [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17780 - Wed Aug 04 2004 09:43 PM

Saturday 8pm = 19.2, 81.2 Near the Cayman Islands, 50kts, 1000mb
Monday 8 pm = 28.1, 83.7 just West of Tampa FL, 80 kts, 970 mb

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17828 - Thu Aug 05 2004 02:24 PM

I feel that T.D two will become a weak tropical storm before hitting Hispaniola and then become staioned off the coast of North or South Carolina and regroup itself, then taking a similiar path in intensity and direction as Hurricane Alex did. This is a inference not a forecast and only assuming that T.D makes it over Hispaniola

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 962
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Anonymous]
      #17843 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:19 PM

Looking worse now than ever...NHC references"multiple" circulation centers, and shear...speculate that in 36 hours the shear will lessen and then it may go, and once it starts could be deep system quickly. The trough will not be southward enough to pull it out of Carribean before then...whatever it is (wave or cyclone) will cross into WGOM over Cuba and menace Florida late in the weekend...that's the best I can do. Doug

--------------------
doug


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17846 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:32 PM

I think that T.D 2 will become a very large tropical storm and continue heading north-west into the gulf of Mexico, where it will become a very strong hurricane and possibly hit Mexico or any cities on the shores of the Gulf Of Mexico. Winds at max in the hurricane, 110 knots.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Keith234]
      #17849 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:35 PM

I think that TD #2 is dead and will never come back



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: What to do with T.D. 2? *FORECAST CHALLENGE* [Re: Hardcore]
      #17850 - Thu Aug 05 2004 03:46 PM

Did you look at the satilite images lately?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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