Anonymous
Unregistered
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Saw that too cane man. Even if Chris departs, this area will have a shot at moving west and developing. Cheers!! SteveH.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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How far west could the area north of P.R. get before recurving. Are we talking east coast problem or a gulf problem?
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caneman
Unregistered
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Yes Indeed it will Steve. Went over and read Joe B. post this morning interesting read. Talks about this system and also about closer developments to US this year. Presumably west of 65. Doesn't sound like he will really lower his #'s either. In fact, get the feeling we may be in for more landfalls. I'm really beginning to think that the US coast will suffer at least 1, if not 2, cat. 4 or higher storms this year.
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Caneman
Unregistered
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Shawn, From the way the pattern seems to be shaping up, it looks like all of east coast and gulf coast needs to be especially alert for more landfall potential this year. Too early to tell which way PR system will head. Although, I thnk if it develops it has a better than even chance of making landfall somewhere.
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Alan
Unregistered
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Can someone post a web site to check out Puerto Rico? I'm not at home and don't have my weather links available.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I just know in past years that systems that are located where this system is normally start to recurve and then are a threat to the east coast and not the gulf. If that high pressure builds in,though, it seems like it may want to push it more towards the gulf. I just don't know enough about these systems yet to really take an educated guess at what it might do. I have noticed the blow up with Bertha this morning. It almost looks like she is trying to reform her center further and further south of where it has been. I'm starting to wonder if any of Texas is going to see any rain from her. The way it is going, it could be Mexico that gets all the rain...hahaha.
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caneman
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR2/20.jpg
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Rickoshade
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: Mobile Al
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interesting developments this morning...Bertha...as i figured..ain't done...feel like it will suprise us..don't see it going west anymore than any other direction...at 8 mph.steering currents appear weak...watching the loops makes me feel it is uncertain at best what will happen...
Joe Bastardi's site is great....recommended reading, i think...
i am with the idea we will see more activity..and a greater risk of landfalls....this is gonna be a heated up year....
if a high pressure ridge is building..that storm could be an Andrew...another tightly packed buzz-saw....
August is always good for producing big ones...
Camille....Andrew....hmmmm
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Area around south Florida seems ripe for developement over next few days.
- Cris not going anywhere quickly
- large amount of warm moisture ladden air in trough extending down from Cris to the keys
- area of disturbed weather N Puerto Rico this Morning moving into picture for the weekend
These and the fact we are getting towards mid August will sure make interesting watching over the next few days.
inserting URL and hope it works better than the mistake I made in last post:
http://lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/satview.cgi?sat=g08&satregion=bah&channel=Ui4&anim=no&size=large
Well going over to beach to look at the swells rolling in from Cris, should be a whole different picture than when I was diving in the calm beach on Tuesday.
Want some expert opinions guys, trying to learn and want as much input as possible.
Hurric
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Wonder if the area of convection near PR will get sucked up by the trough, or caught by Christobal. CHris could either throw a monkey wrench in the works, or create a threatening situation. The AOI near PR is showing convection flying to it's north. Either it's outflow-type exhaust or getting pulled on. Think it's too far south to get affected by the trough. But if it tries to develop and gets near Chris, wonder if they'll both head out to sea?? Pure Conjecture...just throwing that idea out there. Cheers!! Steve H.  
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Chris looks to be to be in the very Southern end of what is pulling out. I think it the trough will be broke down soon and looks like to me there will be ridging in place. Could be wrong but my humble observation. Could get interesting this weekend
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bertha began her comeback around midnight as was her trend over most of the last few days. I don't know how much rain moves inland or where it goes in. If history is with Bertha's down-pulse, convection should again weaken around 12-1pm today. However, due to the proximity of her to the Coast, I wouldn't guarantee anything.
Christobal is an enigma. He should have cruised on out to sea but still doesn't want to.
If you believe in Joe Bastardi, Apalachacola to Corpus Christi is basically out of the woods for the rest of the tropical season.
1) He had originally given a 1/1.7 from Apalachacola to Boothville (1 being landfalls, 1.7 being intensity rating). We had the 1/1 already in the landfall of Bertha. That leaves a 0.7 or potential influence from a tropical storm (or less) that doesn't make landfall in this range.
2) Boothville to Corpus Christi is a 1/1. This factors 1 landfalling tropical storm. If Bertha is a tropical storm and actually makes landfall in and around this area, that's a wrap. In any event, the 1 representing tropical storm conditions will have been satisfied leaving a classified landfall with less than tropical storm conditions remaining for the area.
IMHO, Joe has grossly underestimated the potential for the entire coast from Apalachacola to Corpus. I would expect there will be 2-3 more landfalls before the season is up in this area unless conditions change so dramatically that the Gulf closes up until 2003. Any thoughts?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Question. Looking at the visible loop of Bertha and noticed there seems to be some sort of circulation just to the northwest of her inland over Texas. I wonder if this is the upper low that was out in the gulf with her yesterday or could it be something else. While looking at the loop I also noticed that whatever it is it is starting to pull some of Bertha's moisture straight north. My question is this: could this feature inland start to pull Bertha back to the north because of her being on the southeast side of it?
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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We're going to really have to watch this one. I have a feeling we could see a big one form out of this. (CAT 3-4)
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Shawn, are my eyes decieving me or did bertha stall just off shore. Look, at the corpus long range radar loop. That is interesting. You may have a valid point!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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If the storm intensifies, I would expect landfall in an odd section for landfalls - St. Aug to Charleston. Could be interesting. Might just hang around the coast and head north though in time.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hmm, what an enigma of tropical messes:
Seems like Bertha will go back to TS status,move further s than expected, get stronger than expected before landfall, most likely in Tx.
Chris- well, will slowly lift out, with possibility it will stall again first. May intensify---or shear out!
Area N of PR- Hey HF, Ed or whoever--whats up with that..looks interesting/ominous. I agree---will it lift out or go west?
IHS,
Bill
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If you go by what the says then it hasn't stalled or slowed down at all. Heck, they don't even mention anything about how the feature over land could effect Bertha.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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..he's gonna take that disturbance north of PR with him. Look at the flow to the NW of the disturbance...north. So if Chris heads NE this convection will get pulled up with the trough and into the intensifying Chris as it heads into the maritimes. what a waste. That's what I'm thinking. And it will be another week or two for any action in the Atlantic to watch. It's the pessimists hours again. Jeers!! Steve H.
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caneman
Unregistered
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Yeah Steve, you are probably right. Looks like laeding edge of wave is already being pulled Northward. And system seems to be extending outward instead of condensing. I didn't think it would start to be influenced this soon and figured the trough wouldn't be that influencual in next day or 2. Wait and see I guess.
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