Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Looks like the Atlantic is about to enter a short period of less activity that will probably last until about August 20th, give or take a couple of days. Shear zones are still persistent and the west Atlantic off-shore trough has been reinforced by an uncommon August cold front. Dr Gray recently lowered his expectations by one storm, due to an expected weak El Nino.
In retrospect, my January Outlook of 10/5/1 was probably too low and my June update of 15/8/3 now seems too high - reality at season end is likely to be somewhere in between - closer to 12/7/3.
Invest 91L (the former TD 2) gave it's best, but could not overcome a significant west to southwest shear. This morning it is difficult to locate any circulation - maybe near 17N 78.4W at 13Z, moving west northwest with very little convection - although another flare-up could still happen today. It may not be done yet, but its getting close to extinction.
Invest 92L, with overnight convection currently on the wane, is a complex system with multiple centers of rotation from 22N 52.5W to 23N 55.5W moving west northwest and fighting southwesterly shear. It will still encounter that shear for the next 36 to 48 hours and as it approaches the west Atlantic trough, movement will likely become more northwesterly. It too is running out of time for any significant development.
A large well-formed tropical wave with spotty convection near 9N 43W at 13Z is moving to the west northwest under light southerly shear. The wave is benign at the moment, but could become the 'sleeper' in the basin with some chance for additional development on Monday.
A small weak tropical wave with good convection to the east was located near 12N 62W at 13Z. It was moving to the west northwest into an area of drier air. Another weak to moderate CV wave will enter the Atlantic early tomorrow while the remains of Alex head toward the British Isles.
I think that pretty much covers the basin, and while I don't expect much development, we'll leave the light on just in case.
ED
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Thanks for the new thread, Ed. I posted this on the last forum, so I'll re-post it here:
Nothing much on the horizon this weekend, tho ole Joe still won't give up on XTDII getting into the GOM next week. System near 10/40 may perk up once it gets 50 west early next week. But that's not what piqued my interest.
He stated this at the beginning of the season, but now it's playing out: the years of 1960 & 1985 are quite similar to 2004, as far as temp patterns-cold (versus average) in the middle of the nation, warm at the coasts. Anyone who knows hurricane history should get a tingling down the spine at the meniton of those years. Three retired names in those two years...nuff said.
Looks to be quite the quiet weekend...no worries.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
|
|
This morning Steve Lyons made mention of an area of low pressure southwest of Pensacola, FL that he says may need to be watched. Radar loops indicate a hint of rotation. And from reading posts in other threads I understand that waters in the GOM are pretty warm. Is this something we should keep our eyes on?
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Kal,
Welcome aboard! Looks like bobbi has her clark kent!
At this time of year, the GOM ALWAYS needs to be watched, but I don't think anything is imminent. Maybe next week, if whatever is left of XTD2 survives, something could get going. Keep one eye towards the gulf, but that's all.
Cheers,
LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
|
|
Thanks for the warm welcome Phil. I've lurked on these boards for over two years, but thought that I might as well get registered and start interacting. I've learned a lot from reading discussions in that time, so I tip my hat to you folks. Thanks for being amateur-friendly (and patient).
Hopefully the GOM can keep its composure for at least another week or so...I get married next Saturday in Fort Walton Beach.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
You're quite welcome. I lurked since 1998 and didn't post till last September (during Isabel). Now they can't shut me up. (LOL).
Good luck with the nuptuals. That's about as unpredictable as the weather!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Right now the weather folks analyze this feature as a frontal wave rather than a tropical one - but that could always change. A similar feature is currently just offshore from Cape Canaveral. Welcome aboard!
ED
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
melbourne radar seems to show a spin
loop it
earlier the intelecast summary showed the rotation...not as much now though
Edited by troy2 (Sat Aug 07 2004 01:52 PM)
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/gif/am_ir_monthly_1.gif
ED In the link I provided there you and the rest of the members can see how the is doing and now the Atlantic with those brown lines is in the dry phase or not favorable but once the green lines that are now in the Western Pacific spill into the Atlantic by late august things will get going big time coinciding with the start of the peak of the season.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Aug 07 2004 01:31 PM)
|
Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
|
|
i was looking back in the 1960 info an noticed how a cat 5 nearly made landfall in new orleans virtually skirting the coast at that strength, that storm name was ethel so when i was reading the prelim something intriged me. the prelim says the storm had a 140 knts winds and a measured pressure of 972 millibars? now im assuming the winds are flight level not surface wich corralates to 125knts 145mph but stil thats a hel of high pressure for 125knts.
prelimanry report
Robert: See the History Forum for some comments on this unusual storm. The Hurricane History Forum seemed like a better place for it.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 07 2004 01:52 PM)
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
the "cold" front that came through the panhandle here is forecasted to move back north on sunday/monday....there appears to be a low level cir. just south of mobile. while it may be cold core low, sitting over 85 degree water, well may be just b something to watch...... looking at buoy 42039, having 6.6 ft at 11:50cdt.... well that's a good front that came through.......water temp 85.6 and air 82.6 with pres 29.84 in and heat index....(115 miles south of pens) at 93.7...... where's the cool dry air?....... keep watching the GOM.... cool front sitting just off the gulf states, well could bee interesting...atleast alot of moisture come monday...
buoy report
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
The little low to the south of P'cola...it has it's work cut out for it but it seems to me to be getting a little tighter on the vis pics 
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Thanks Cycloneye - thats a link worth keeping.
Cheers,
ED
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
disturbed weather in the Gulf, with reinforcement from the NW Carribean at this time of year is a potent mixture that bears close scrutiny...I'l be watching for sure.
--------------------
doug
|
DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
|
|
Been awhile since I've posted, thought I'd check back in. I was kind of surprised to see all this talk about the GOM. Looking at the latest sattelites, I wouldnt be looking south of Mobile, look due south of FWB, Destin and I think that area is the area to watch. Looks like storms are wrapping up down there. Still dont feel the chances are great for development at the moment, maybe later tomorrow if its still around. I'll be watching though. Anyone got any info on whats goin on and some possible scenario's?
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
For something to develop is a weak possiblity for now. The pressures have been somewhat low today but seem to have leveled off. Have to keep watching and see if we can get more clouds to pop 
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
|
|
Don't forget to catch the tropical storm documentary on the Science Channel....very interesting views and facts about some recent storms. Isabel for one... The channel has been running this program at different times...check your local schedule... Some good watching during this "Quiet Time"
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I'm gonna disagree wtih Bastardi's rant today. While he acknowlledges the possibility that satanic shear has won the battle for the soul of 92L, I think he was a victim of his own cautiousness after the first two failed-Gulf developments. 92L was never going to be anything before Sunday at the earliest. It's coming back just fine this afternoon. Convection exists and is probably less hampered than it was yesterday and earlier today by the ULL moving SW out front of it. Unfortunately I don't have time to look at models or WV's as my buddy's getting married tonight. (FWIW, it's not too late Kal).
I'll try to check back in tonight, but uh, I might have a buzz 
Steve
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Hey guys,
well the Atlantic Basin generally seems quiet dont forget about us over here, and the remnants of Alex that are now knocking on our shores! The weather is set to be locally 'severe' during the next 48 hours with gusty winds, heavy / locally torrential rains with forecast totals of upto 3", and embedded potentially violent thunderstorms! Bouys off the south coast of Ireland are currently reporting waves of near 15 feet, and the satellite image shows ex-Alex becomming a deep and very well defined storm.
Will post more details tomorrow on this storm system as it set in across the UK
Regards
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Rich & James,
Certainly won't forget about you guys. There is something ironical (from Good Will Hunting) that you are probably the first (of the more frequent posters) to be tasting the raindrops from a CAT III storm this season. Bully, I say. It may be more appropriate in another forum, but do give us chaps and lasses in the US a report of ex-Alex's weather.
Steverino, please come back later on this e'en when (1) your drink is very strong, and (2) make it a good post for a future comedy shop sampler.
Here's to hoping JB is wrong (which, with the exception of absolutely nailing Alex, has been the rule more than the exception lately.).
Coop, enjoy your bbq, check back in later on.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
