SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Looks like we'll have TD #3 on our hands over the LEsser Antillies today! Looking good.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Visible shot of 93L showing good banding features, still lacking a though, think the will play conservative on upgrading the system, because of the history(this season) of systems falling apart in the E. Carib.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey NLU, check out the latest GOES vis loop... sure hints of a LLC ... best guess would be at 22.8N and 87.7W.... looks like the shear is blowing the convection off to the WSW, which gives the overall appearance of a more westerly direction. But the heading of what could be the LLC is actually moving off to the NW (300-310 degress - best guess with limit sat data.) convection also on the increase off to the NE of what I think could very well be the LLC
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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bobbi
Unregistered
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always liked the orcas site.. look how big that wave is down there
oh my goodness
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well my home computer has the proverbial ghost in the machine again, so I logged off early last night and am just getting back on. I'll probably lay off the posting today (a sense of shock descends the boards)...unless I pick up a nugget or two to pass along.
Since we appear to be on the verge of something big, I have been looking up various recipes for rabbit stew  Of course, since I agreed with the varmint, I'll be enjoying my crow very much, thank you.
I will be here to keep the anons in check, so the board can proceed with great hurricane banter and no malicious chuck and duck crap posts.
Sitting back and enjoying the show. Enjoy everyone! 
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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So it begins in the GOM!
Latest looks like small but well formed low moving generally wnw which should continue until about 25N and 90W...don't see any reason this will not be classified a cyclone today.
No comment on the other feature.
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Boy that is a monster entering in the caribbean.... islands reported winds associated with the thunderstorms at 53 mph.... it makes our little system in the GOM look puny... very impressive for sure... question is ... who will become Bonnie this one or exTD2.... any bets?
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Man- that model scares me there.  The race is on. Will it be Bonnie in the Gulf or the Caribbean?
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
945 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2004
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL THIS
MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS...THEN A CLOSED CIRCULATION COULD FORM AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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atlantic..not GOM..
active day in the tropics
went from not much of a special notice to "well hello there"
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bobbi
Unregistered
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we'll miss u
so...will it be the old girlfriend or the new one all dressed up and looking for attention in the atlantic?
come on..make up your mind
place your bets
(material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 10 2004 12:02 AM)
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bobbi
Unregistered
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id reclassify it as TD2 and wait til later to classify as a storm
either way they can take some time, figure out where it is going and issues watches and warnings down the road a bit
my thoughts
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
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I've been away from the computer for a few days--major cleaning to be done. Woke up this morning to see a possible developing system east of the Antilles; and surprised to see ex-TD2 regenerating after completely falling apart a few days ago--I thought for sure it was over (glad I was wrong; hope I'm not admitting this too soon only for it to fall apart like 97L)
could be a TD later today. As for 93L, is that an eye ?? Could that be an indication that it will be closed off later today??
In any case, you can't have organization like that and a 53 mph gust with a depression--if closed off, it will go directly to TS
(note on this topic: 1993 was the last time two depressions were named in opposite order of original classification--TD5 developed Aug 21, TD6 developed Aug 22; TD6 became Aug 23 and TD5 became Emily Aug 26. This year might be:
TD3=Bonnie; TD2=Charley)
also, the last time something waited 5 or more days to regenerate was Dean in 2001--sheared apart Aug 23; regenerated from system Aug 28
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Yea Frank, it might be there. But I'm gonna guess a little further south than you based on the GOES loop and lookng at the stills from the Cancun radar and say near 22.2/87.7.
Looking at the zoomed in shot from the NASA site (thank you NASA) you can see the lower cloud elements moving NW off the eastern Yucatan and heading to the south on the north side of the Yucatan just west of where the center might be. The latest Cancun surface winds were out of the southeast which would generally fit in ths scenaro. One thing is for sure, this is a very small system right now.
Also currently seems to be moving more west than anything. There was a strong hurricane a few years ago (I forget the name) that moved in a simular fashion and was eventually pulled inland in the same area. Somebody, I think it was Joe Bastardi had an explanation for this but just as I have forgotten the name of the storm I also have forgotten why it moved inland there. If anyone remembers maybe they can refresh my memory. Maybe something to do with the friction of land causing the storm to be pulled that way. Could be the same case here and it won't turn back to the NW unti it moves away from the Yucatan. I guess also the shear could be pushing the convection more westward as the center moves more WNW or NW.
A new area of convection is currently building north of the possible center so if it is on the northern edge, it shouldn't be exposed for long.
Edited by teal61 (Mon Aug 09 2004 02:58 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just a quick note. JB mentioned 1960 & 1985 AGAIN today, and threw out the names Camille, Erin & Isadore. He's not saying the GOM system will become Camille (god let's pray not, right Frank P.), but that it did develop under similar circumstances...food for thought...watch this one.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yo LiPhil... Camille was a very small storm, diameter of eye was less than 10 miles wide, I think it was about 8 miles wide when it went inland... and this system is also small... we all saw just last week how fast Alex strengthened.... bottom line... we get the LLC cooking, and it does appear to have one, albeit not that strong at the moment, anything can happen... as with developing systems it also appears to have a stacking problem.. this will NOT be a Camille, not even close...... I don't think I will ever see another Camille in my neck of the woods... that's my one in a life time storm...
Teal, you can't really see the center of the LLC based on radar as it can't see that low on the surface from that far away, what your seeing on radar is probably the midlevel circulation.... that's why I thought the LLC could be a little farther north that what you posted but I really don't know for sure, its just a guess on what I could see off the vis, and your guess could be as good as any.... still think our little baby is having stacking problems with the mid and LLC and needs to get this ironed out before it can do much more...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Interesting 10 days afoot. Watched JB's Tropical Update which confirmed some of my worries from last night's drunken post. He likes the N.O.-Appy solution (obviously assuming we have a LLC) as a TS or hurricane by Thursday. 's 6z takes it in as a hurricane in NW FL after just bypassing the mouth of the Mississippi. Then the fun begins after that. Watch what happens in the WPAC with Rananim. Latest track brings it a bit south of Shanghai and gets it fairly close to Cat 3. Might we have a potentially brutal storm sitting around the Gulf for a few days and possibly moving toward the Texas coast in the end (JB calls the potential teleconnection a chance of a chance of a chance)? But anyway, the Western basin is certainly coming to life.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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93L looking even better than xtd2 did in the same general area. Maybe just a degree or two further south which will cause more interaction with SA. The biggest concern I have for further development is the same as last week--forward speed. This system will need to slow some if it is going to develop much. The strong shear that ripped TD2 apart when it was a litlle further into the graveyard isnt as strong now and if it can slow just a bit and move more wnw I think it will be a player.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Man, this Gulf system is really something to keep an eye on. The Gulf waters are cooking right now! Tropics didn't stay quiet for long, did they?  
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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