Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Indeed it is - here is the amended flight plan of the day:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION .............ADDED
FLIGHT ONE.....ADDED FLIGHT ......ADDED
A. 09/1800Z A. 10/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0302A INVEST B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 09/1530Z C. 10/0330Z
D. 23.0N 88.0W D. 24.0N 89.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2300Z E. 10/0430Z TO 10/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000FT.
System still has about three different swirls, so its difficult to pin down a center - at any level. At 18Z I had it at 20.1N 83.6W, but didn't have much luck at 21Z.
For those following the so-called 'sleeper' wave, it still has good structure and an elongated area of circulation - loosely at 10.5N 52.0W at 19Z. Two areas to watch - and both have potential.
Cheers,
ED
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Javlin, I have noticed the little low of SE LA, It's been kicking up the waves and wind today. I was out on Pensacola Beach this morning and got a good sandblasting. Dont see any development from it, but maybe we can get a few good storms from it.
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LI Phil
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Ooooooh, you go visit your local NWS and lookie what happens...seems like we have some action a-brewing. FWIW, I did declare XTD2 dead earlier this morning, but the li'l sumbeatch is trying to prove me and the varmint wrong. Man I REALLY want to be wrong. Also, FWIW, I said today was a sleeper day, and in that respect it still is...tomorrow...now that's another day.
Guess 91L lives another day. Should be more interesting tomorrow...the heart of the tropix is beating again.
Cheers,
LI Phil
(See above attachment and NWS Visit in the Everything & Nothing Forum)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 08 2004 11:04 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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no... i liked it phil.. was the most exciting refreshing thing ive heard all day
am bored to death with both systems that i feel i have watched half the season .. they all look the same and all are unable to pull it together
bored in miami..
not completely bored but tropically bored lol
just my thoughts
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 08 2004 10:53 PM)
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HanKFranK
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t.d. remants rising from the dead. the cemetery keeper of the hurricane graveyard beat it to death with the shear shovel, but now the carcass seems to be twitching again. i was feeling kind of dumb for misunderestimating the chances this thing had.. now i'm not so sure. it's slowed down and has weak-moderate easterly shear conditions.. and seems to be responding to the deep layer trough over the eastern u.s. development in this area would mean slow movement in the central or eastern gulf while the deep trough decays, awaiting the next shortwave arrival.
away east 93L is slowly improving in appearance, slightly seperate from the , but speeding along much too fast to do anything. with the relatively flat ridging to the east it should slow some but keep on a mostly westerly course unless the broad trough/weak low associated tightens.
weak low near the mouth of the mississippi of little consequence.
92L remains drawing northward into the deep trough in the western atlantic. it broke through the mid level ridging that would have blocked it (too shallow to get caught).. so it's elongated and no longer a development threat.
t.d. 2 has been 'dead' for over three days now. it is unusual for something to come back after that amount of time. may shape up to be a more interesting upcoming week than i was thinking just last night.
HF 2249z08august
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GR FLA
Unregistered
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After noticing two huge troughs come down the east coast, like if it was October and not August, and another one scheduled to come down next weekend, is there a possibility that when we get in the heart of hurrican season in late August, September and early October, these troughs don't come down like they normally do and we have then a huge high pressure rige sending all storms toward the east coast and not to sea??? Can anyone explain what I am seeing???
Also, what are the chances that good-looking wave east of the Windwards develops into something, looks better today on satellite?
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Anonymous
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i think we will have bonnie or a TD 2 again by 11:30am monday.... if she can survive the night (she flares up at night) ... and has held together today.... Northern Gulf coast states look to be in for a system come mid week.... could it be bonnie?
i think from New Orleans and eastward to Apalachicola, fl..... need to watch GOM starting monday...... the slower it moves.... the farther east i think it will move.... when the front moves back north with that low south of LA..... something is going to sit in the middle of the gulf and be born..... will see what recon finds in morning.... haven't seen a system survive the graveyard and come back so strong..... Tropics heating up again......
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LI Phil
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>>> is there a possibility that when we get in the heart of hurrican season in late August, September and early October, these troughs don't come down like they normally do and we have then a huge high pressure rige sending all storms toward the east coast and not to sea???
god I hope not. But maybe that's a good question for Ed or any of the mets/near mets...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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Fantastic post once again HF! Ole TD 2 has a little to work with so I am eager to see what the next day brings and go from there. I'd like to see some model data by then.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Old Sailor
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Loc: Florida
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It's very strange that none of the models have tried to pick up this system XTD2 even the wacked out models haven't in the last few days, maybe this wave just playing with us, gets everybody going then dies down again. Yuctan had 30 mph winds from the east good for making thunder storms not lows, plus the B/P are kind of high in the area. Tomorrow is another day to see what happens.
Dave
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Frank P
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Our little wannabe TD has been persistent all day, convection still on the rise this evening and its holding its own .... what a great comeback for this system if it continues to develop.... nothing is a sure thing but I think the odds go up each hour with this one, it needs to remain persistent as it has today for the next 24 hours and it could really get interesting.... some of the early models hint of a Fl panhandle event, not sure if I want to buy that just yet, intensity models are also suggesting a possible Cat 1 storm, intensity models missed Alex big time early out... hard to discern on the IR where the center could be, but the overall motion of the system appears to be about 300 degrees....
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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An interesting thought. I've posted a response in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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Storm Cooper
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Could be a possible TD in the am, AGAIN. That is another reason I look forward to new model runs...BTW as I am sure you have seen most globals like to spin something off the old front on the east coast of FL.... wait and see.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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BillD
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From the animation I pieced together from Cancun radar shots over the last few hours, it looks to me like there is a center of circulation due east of Cancun heading just north of west at this point, so 300 pretty much fits.
Bill
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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EPAC Huirrcane season is half over and to date they only had 1/2 of the storms for a normal season to date, wonder if this relates to whator if will happen to the rest of our season?
Dave
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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it that a low level cir... i see on some sat pics.... just south of the western tip of cuba?
looks like invest 91L is back
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Frank P
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Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT sun 08 Aug 2004
(from two segments of the overall discussion)
Central American tropical wave along 87w S of 18w moving W 10-15 kt. The remnant of TD two has split off the wave as a trof and is located from 20n85w to 24n84w. A weak low may be forming near 21n85w moving WNW 10-15 kt. Radar images from Cancun confirm the satellite presentation with rotation noted in the Yucatan Channel. System appears to be in a low shear environment as it enters the se Gulf overnight. Tropical wave is bringing a few TSTMs to Central America within 90 nm of the wave axis. Scattered moderate near the trof from 20n-23n between 84w-87w.
Upper high over the se Gulf is leading to anticyclonic flow
aloft in the NW Caribbean... which is favorable for tropical
cyclone formation. The remnant of TD 2 has flared up this
evening and will be watched as it moves into the se Gulf Mon. Numerical models don't indicate much development but small systems such as this one have been known to slip through the cracks due to its size.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Looks like the shear monger is back at work.The low to the W looks to of had intensified in the last few frames.I would suspect development to be slow at best tonight if any.
somebody hit me with hammer Please!!!
Edited by javlin (Mon Aug 09 2004 12:30 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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That was in the zone Frank P! "Small systems".... If this were to develop past TD I think most models will not handle it well or at all 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Anonymous
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XTD2 is moving WNW wouldn't be 300 degrees then, more 285 to 290 degrees.
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