Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Dvorak Current Intensity Chart Link explained
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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For interest the has a new run on 91L.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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IF YOU WANT TO BE EXACT ABOUT IT
But I don't think the exact heading of this system is really known at the moment because we don't know exactly where the center is or exactly where it is going and it is a developing system, which makes it even harder, my direction was a general estimate at best,, but be that as it may, 300 degrees is not that far off from 292.5
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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my thoughts for whatever they are worth.. writing from miami, its thundering outside suddenly
ive been watching this loop.. gives me good view of both systems, sort of a compare and contrast view..
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.html
old slow loop but gives you a feel for whole basin which i prefer sometimes to the old invest tho i am watching that too
looks like the environment around the yucatan is begging for development, still not sold on this philly and atlantic wave has a nice broad curved look but neither is a "for sure" bet yet
reading along, and watching
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Frank,
I had typed a similar reply and then deleted it without posting it. I think our best offense against these anon snipers is to ignore them (Ed has made it clear he will disappear posts like that).
Bill
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Some early plots on 91L seems they just put them up.....
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LMDL01.html
Dave
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EMS
Unregistered
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My first post here- I too have been watching the remnants of TD2 all day. Glad to find so many with my unrelenting interest in weather in general and the tropics in particular.
Take a look at the latest radar image from Cancun. I know I'm coming to the party quite late here, but I'm seeing a rapidly intensifying system. My guess is we're going to have a CAT 1/small CAT 2 hurricane stalled in the GOM within 48 hours.
http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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actually Dave they've been up for a about an hour as I posted this info about 7:37 earlier tonight, the models I was refering to in that post was from hurricane alley... here are some more - see link below... also ran on the system but doesn't do anything with it (see Coops post earlier)
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/91LFA.html
model outputs 1 and 2 are active...
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Frank, see what happens when you hit 75 eyes not like they use to be missed that one.. These early plots tend to be out all over the place, until we have an TD/TS then think we will have better model runs.
Dave
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hey Mr. Dave I agree with you 100%.... I've never been a real big fan of models, but most especially in the early stages of TC development as the initialization is usually all screwed up to start with.... Hey, as I've always posted in this site... my favorite models are the ones wearing a bikini..... the convection looks pretty impressive on the cancun radar... sure wish I could get it to loop...
http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
NRL getting on the move! Old Sailor..don't sweat the small stuff.... I think we have something here and need you to stay in office!
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Thanks Frank and Storm,
The Navy does get a little faster jump on things then the , don't think they call it a TD at 11:00PM but will if still holds together at 5:30AM 08/09/2004.
Dave
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well Gentlemen and Ladies....this looks like it could be a fun week for those of us around the Gulf!
Ex-TD2 looking really good tonight, and in the catbirds seat for development. It will be very interesting to see what the global and regional models do with it on the 00Z and 06Z runs. issuing a TC Formation Alert, so looks like we are going to have to watch it closely.
Coop, watch the 10...going to do some extended analysis on 91L (21L now)....
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Does anyone have a link to a radar down in Cancun :?:
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Nice to hear from you again Jason. I agree, looks like a busy week for us all along the gulf. To bad I cant get your forecast in my area, I get all the local TV stations from Mobile. The main meterologist is always off Sunday nights so some fill in lady steps in for the tropical update and basically says the same thing everytime. LOL Well im looking forward to all your insight on this system. Have a great week.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
but I can't get it to loop... maybe it just takes a long time and I'm to impatient to wait....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Normally, I wouldn't be in tonight, but my weekend guy is out of town and I volunteered to work anyway...from the way this looks tonight I would have had to come in anyway...
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Jason Kelley
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It doesn't loop for me either. I've got a utility grabbing the image very 15 minutes, and then another that loops it for me. I hand built a loop image earlier, but it ended up about 2MB for only 10 images, too big to post anywhere.
Bill
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Well Jason your expertise is an added value service to this board and I always look forward to your analysis and forecasts. Maybe we'll have a player in the GOM to monitor this week after all.... it needs to hold together over night and transition into the GOM with at least what it currently has going for it....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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thanks Bill, I was on storm2k earlier this evening and they were saying the cancun radar was extremely slow, but would eventually loop... I got tired of waiting on the download... I think it would be very telling if we could get the cancun radar to loop, with all that impressive convection it is currently showing....
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