Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I know that everyone is watching things closer to home, but there is a significant tropical low over western Africa near 13N 3W. Yesterday this system was already impressive and it has developed considerably since then. The system is already north of the and moving westward at a steady clip. These are the types of waves from which significant cyclones can develop and I would not be at all surprised to see this system become a tropical storm in about a week. Cape Verde storms may not be too plentiful this season, but this one sure looks impressive to me. The waters in the east Atlantic have warmed enough to sustain this system when it exits the coast in about three days. Its certainly something else to watch. Here is a link to the Meteosat image:
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html
Cheers,
ED
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I agree on the basis that we have to watch this one. It has a very significant area of convection right near the center of its axis and is very broad overall. The only inhibiting factors at this time are the cooler than normal waters and moderate subsidence, which btw, is forecasted to finally become minimal as an anticyclone in the upper-levels moves out into the Atlantic. There is also a wave ahead of this one with a 1010 mb low that will be worth watching as it moves westward into a more favorable environment. Granted the current pattern of a strong high locking up across the Atlantic through September, at least, and with the way Christobal barely got turned out to sea by the infamous "trough", it would not surprise me at all to see a major hurricane make landfall on the East Coast in the next 10-30 days. We could also even get two majors for the season...one in September perhaps. What do you think about the landfall situation Ed?
Kevin 
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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|
Well Kevin, you were right about the Atlantic SSTs - still too cool between 20W and 50W - really did a number on that wave. The tropical low is still hanging on near 10N 21W at 11/12Z. Some limited convection has attempted to refire this morning, but this one (and those that follow for awhile) will have to travel quite a few days westward before encountering a more favorable SST environment. Another swirl still holding it together at 14N 39W. Regarding your landfall question, I think that the southeast, including ALL of the Gulf, are potential target areas through at least mid October this year. I don't think that the Gulf season will shut down as quickly as it normally does. I still believe that we will only have 5 or 6 more storms. Cool eastern Atlantic has not changed all that much in months. Some signals that the weak El Nino may be starting to rebuild - and if this happens, congrats to NOAA for making a tough call. If you shut down at least half of the basin, the emerging reality is that the remaining half, with less than classic conditions, can only support the development of just so many storms. Maybe only half a dozen left to form this season, but with the momentary decline in El Nino over the past month, I also think that the season has a better chance of running longer than I had originally expected. Could even experience the oddity of a very late season storm.
Cheers,
ED
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