Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote:
Can anyone hazard a guess as to what impact woud likily have on flights out of TIA. I'm suppose to leave early Saturday morning to take my younger son to college.
No brainer, all flights cancelled if this track comes close to verifying. Furthermore, airlines quit sending planes into an affected area in advance because they dont want aircraft stuck and out of service or damaged. I suggest you either get in a car and leave today, not tomorrow or stick it out.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Found it!, thanks 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I do not think that was movement to the West. It appears to be pretty steady in its direction. Still looks like a Florida Storm to me, regardless..
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A quick message before I've got to go...looks like 's held his own but gained a 12 mi. wide eye in the process. Nothing spectacular, but he's on his way.
000
URNT12 KNHC 111223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1223Z
B. 16 DEG 19 MIN N
75 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1368 M
D. 55 KT
E. 299 DEG 08 NM
F. 062 DEG 76 KT
G. 301 DEG 007 NM
H. 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1521 M
J. 21 C/ 1525 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 1221Z.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I noticed that westward movement on the WV imagery. It could just be a jog, but the further west it goes before beginning to make that NW/N/NE turn could have a huge impact on what the Florida Gulf Coast gets. Forecasters here are saying it will be over the western tip of Cuba than into the extreme eastern GOM.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't think it was a question that a jog to the west would not make it a Florida storm, but any divergence to the west would be important for this reason: where it crosses Cuba. If it passes through the middle of Cuba, it won't be a strong coming out, but if it just crosses the western tip of Cuba it's not going to make a big difference.
Also: the question asked about TIA and flights was a valid question. There are some people here who just lurk and don't know what effects a hurricane will have on other activities. It wasn't a "no brainer" it was a question that deserved a decent answer.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Notice the position...Almost a full degree south of the current listed position. Looking at the sat pics it appeared to be south of where they had it. I could be wrong. I seem to remeber last year that you had to use some kind of formula to figure out the position from the Recon fix.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
I don't think it was a question that a jog to the west would not make it a Florida storm, but any divergence to the west would be important for this reason: where it crosses Cuba. If it passes through the middle of Cuba, it won't be a strong coming out, but if it just crosses the western tip of Cuba it's not going to make a big difference.
Also: the question asked about TIA and flights was a valid question. There are some people here who just lurk and don't know what effects a hurricane will have on other activities. It wasn't a "no brainer" it was a question that deserved a decent answer.
Colleen,
I think the poster meant it was a no brainer for what the airport would do if a hurricane hit tampa. The poster was not implying it was a no-brainer of a question. The answer the poster received was decent and absolutely correct. 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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never deny a girl storm of attention
shes getting it now
and she will pull up right after her
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That NW wind report will more than likely give us Hurricane at 11am. Don't you multiply knts by 1.15 to mph? I think 76 knots would be around 86-87 mph.
Here's something weird that just happened: I got a call from an 800 # and when I answered it said, "This is a call from the Florida Emergency Management (something or other) all lines are busy right now" and then they hung up. It was a recorded message. Do we here in Florida have that new advance warning system in place?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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how encouraging is it when you look at forecast for 2 days from now and says "heavy wind and rains" and then 3rd day is "showers"
ummmm dont need a sat to see that one
good luck
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yeah, it was. I jumped the gun on that one. I'm trying to get my kids out the door and they are not cooperating. 
Sorry if I sounded rude, I did not mean it the way I typed it out.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thank you all. I am a lurker, but a native of the Tampa Bay area, and I've seen many of these storms threaten but then the track changes....you guys know the drill. I'm curious as to how far in advance they'd suspend flights and how quickly they'd reopen them, but I realize that there are probably too many unknowns to answer any of that.
I guess at this point there's nothing we can do except continue to prepare for our trip, and add hurricane preparations to the long list of tasks. Driving is not an option as my son's college destination is California. Leaving early is also not an option....in addition to preparing my home for a possible storm, I'll need to prepare my parents' and sister's homes, as they are currently out of town.
Bleah!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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It was a call from Publix, they are running out of bread and bottled water.. LOL.. Seriously, I do not think so.. But then again you never know..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Yes Colleen I believe we do.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Anybody whi really wants to follow how this will play out shoudld fix on the progress of the trough which is clearly seen on the water vapor...Based on what that demonstrates, I think Bonnie will make a sharper turn to the east than forecast meaning more ENE to E once it turns...
Charley's forecast track is totally up in the air I think, depends on speed of arrival for one thing, becaus it looks like a good sized ridge is develpoing behind this trough, and if the trough misses it anything goes.
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doug
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yeah, no kidding. People in Pasco County are already leaving (by boat) because they have had so much rain there already. My husband just called and said that the phosphate plant in Riverview is in emergency mode (like what the heck is that?) and they are extremely concerened about the Alafia River flooding into their plants there.
I told him this last night. He shook his head like a bobble head because he was watching "Sea Biscuit".
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Toho,
Not a good idea at this time...even if meant as a joke...
This is how panic is perpetuated.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, than it was probably a test. Jeez. I need to step away and tend to Thing 1 and Thing 2. FOFLOL.......those would be my boys.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
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Am I the only one that beleives that Bonnie will go more towards Alabama then Florida? Just a gut feeling that the storm won't be effected as much by the cold front as everyone thinks. Plus I don't see the front moving very fast. now if I still don't see a turn NE by 3 today im going to start 
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