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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: PS question? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18946 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:23 AM

I have a ? Why do we port the obs that the planes are reporting if we dont have any explanation with them? All it says to me is that someone can copy and paste. I appriciate all of the people in here that take the time to post what these reading mean. Hey joepub, hope you have your candles ready cause jea is going to be w/o power for sure.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Bonnie [Re: Unregistered User]
      #18947 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:28 AM

May just be me thinkin, but i think and based on what i see and bonnie may come ashore farther north (west) than expected and as a Hurricane.... i notice that the "hanging" front looks to be weaker to north of storm than i first thought... this goes back to what i thought yesterday.... the low that was over the mobile region has produce alot of shower activity well ahead of storm (which i think is influenced by Bonnie now) and appears to be drifting more north now... question is will bonnie do as alex.... i think somewhat yes... the "shear" to north is pretty strong but also look over near the houston area....???? shear looks to be heading south, could that be a sign of Bonnie getting bigger?

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18950 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM

Looks like Charley is headed toward the central GOM. Florida spared again??

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: 11am discussion [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #18951 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM

Agree rmbjoe. Hope we learned one thing from Floyd, and I'm not doing any comparison between these two storms and Floyd.It would be for the most part, Floridians need to STAY HOME. Protect and prepare your home and family, but if you get on the road, there's not going to be a good direction to go in this case. Running from one only puts you in the path of the other. Use a shelter; they will be aval. but your much more at risk in a car stuck on a highway in 50-60 mph winds and driving rain, with people losing their cool. With the exception of areas close to the coast, it's pretty much going to be a windy, rainy day that you'll survive with no problem. I hope people don't make it worse then it has to be.

Anybody think the "center" of both storms will cross the same patch of dirt at some point, within a 72-96 hour period?


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 11am discussion [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #18952 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:37 AM

This is not like FLoyd. But here in Maryland Floyd wasn't a sigh of relief more like a wake up call.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 11am discussion [Re: hurricane_run]
      #18955 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:39 AM

Does anyone think that watches should be extended further west ? The models are trending that way


http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: PS question? [Re: GaryC]
      #18956 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM

Ahhhh, Gary, I see you know our power grid well......
Local joke, it really sucks.


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Bonnie [Re: Anonymous]
      #18957 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:40 AM

We just got an email saying that bonnie and charlie will not get close to us at all and we are not in any danger of being affected here where I work. I just laughted and said, what website is he looking at cause at the same time he sent that word out that weather guy for channel 12 was on the radio saying we could get strong winds and storms from bonnie and charlie was too far out to tell at this time. Funny how people who havent been in a storm or have had too many scares brush off something that coudl be at thier back door. Hey colleen hows tampa getting prepared?

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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Charley [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18958 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM

You need to look again because thwe latest graphic has the center going right over Orlando by Friday afternoon. The storm is moving father left but it has one heck of a curve in it as the infuence of the front begins to interact with the movement.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
For Gary C. [Re: GaryC]
      #18959 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:41 AM

I posted this at 10:06, 2 pages back:

>>> Also, the recon data are great for those who know how to interpret them, but they clog up the boards. Only post the relevant data (and you know what those are).

It seems to me that some people either do not take the time to read others' posts or ignore them altogether. Perhaps it's time to start deleting the recon stuff that appears without explanation...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 11am discussion [Re: Anonymous]
      #18960 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:42 AM

The NHC is going to be real carful with extending watches and warnings. Those this are expensive and they dont want to be like the boy who cried wolf. But on the other hand if the models are changing they are going to have to make a choice.

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Hardcore
Unregistered




Re: 11am discussion [Re: hurricane_run]
      #18961 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:50 AM

Quote:

The NHC is going to be real carful with extending watches and warnings. Those this are expensive and they dont want to be like the boy who cried wolf. But on the other hand if the models are changing they are going to have to make a choice.




Whats the avg cost to an area if they extend the warnings to a city like Mobile ?



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: 11am discussion [Re: Hardcore]
      #18963 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM

It is estimated that every mile of watch or warning costs 1 million dollars in manpower and supplies.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Charley [Re: PFSThunder]
      #18964 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:52 AM

You must be looking at an old run. The 12Z has shifted further west.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 11am discussion [Re: wxman007]
      #18965 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:54 AM

Quote:

It is estimated that every mile of watch or warning costs 1 million dollars in manpower and supplies.




Thanks for the answer Jason



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Tampa Preparations [Re: GaryC]
      #18967 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:55 AM

Well, let me put it this way. After I dropped off Thing 1 and Thing 2 at camp, I decided to go to Publix to stock up on some extra stuff. I saw maybe about 20 cars in the parking lot and most of the people were buying things other than hurricane supplies. I think that people are not preparing because we get all excited and then nothing happens. My gut feeling is this is going to be a big surprise for people tonight and tomorrow. I think people tend to forget that we are not that far from the GOM and depending on how close Charley gets to us, we could get hurricane strength winds. Do you know how many mobile homes there are in Polk County? TONS. On the bright side, it only took me 35 minutes to get what I needed and some cash, too.

In Hillsborough County, they are handing out 20-25 sandbags per household at local fire departments.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Charley [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #18969 - Wed Aug 11 2004 11:58 AM

Not by much, Steve. It still has it coming in near TB but a little bit slower. It isn't a dramatic shift to the west.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Charley [Re: Colleen A.]
      #18971 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:00 PM

Both Storm tracks are shifting more west. Or am I seeing things ?



http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: Anonymous]
      #18972 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:01 PM

MIKE PUT UP A NEW THREAD...DON'T POST HERE ANYMORE

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 11am discussion [Re: Hardcore]
      #18975 - Wed Aug 11 2004 12:03 PM

million dollars per mile evacuated

--------------------
doug


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