HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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could be that the storm is multi-vortex.. or that the center is oscillating around inside a larger envelope. maybe a new one formed. but yeah, that's how i would interpret those obs.. doesn't match 's position estimate. the center they fixed was barely closed and shallow.
good to hear signs of life from pine island. glad the guy made it.
HF 1730z15august
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Sat here the other night watching exit over Daytona, thinking that could have been us. JAX has sent help trying to help get power restored, but it takes a little while for the crews to find the downed lines, and get the trees off of them. I hope they get you guys up and running real soon, I really love that area.
The obs I posted about Grenada more than likely show that the LLC is moving around some and has passed to the west of the island, either over, or a little south of it. I guess one point may be that it may not be moving as fast,but still in the 20ish range, and it's in the act of getting itself together. Long ways to go, still worried about a breakdown in the stearing flow day 3 on, just can't get a feel for it. Off to work, back for a late look tonight, got tomorrow off. Need a break.
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/
Not sure but this may help you some.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I've been going on other boards and people are already forecasting it to go to such and such a place. It's WAY too early to know. If I had to say today-the front will pull it North anywhere between Morgan City, LA to Apalachicola, FL. Then again-it could go off into Mexico. We really don't know.
The should get a decent handle on it in a couple days.
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Agreed... a little too early yet. I think the has a good grab on it.... as far out as their forecast period goes. As far as models and some interest in the UKMET... it's last run changed a great amount to the west... for now.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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off into mexico.. yeah, if it keeps racing that can happen. it isn't gaining a lot of latitude for now, and that's for the better over the long run.
HF 1844z15august
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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A part of the AFD from Tally and what JK for one, has a feeling of...
THE OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST HAS EARL MOVING NNWWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FRI MORNING AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
MAY PULL EARL TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MID RANGE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT
WELL CLUSTERED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WE STARTED TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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HF wouldn't it help if it gains any lat. the development on the S side then making it track a tad further N.That is one of the things you said last year I never forgot.The proximity to land for development.Earl looks to be tracking just a tad N maybe 275'-280'.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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javlin - further south is better in the long run, as HF mentioned, because it likely keeps a weaker storm affecting less people - and not affecting the U.S. at all. If the storm starts to head further north, it's getting stronger and likely affecting the U.S..
Whether it's better or worse in the long run depends on your perception of things, I guess: stronger storm or less impacts on life and property?
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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According to , Danielle now has 85knot winds with a central pressure of 975 mb...that would make it a Category 2 hurricane.
--Lou
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I don't dispute that point Clark at all.I was just tring to point out that maybe any movement to the N in the long run will facilitate development.Thus Earl possibly working the ridge to his N.It just seems to me a more N track of Earl might be inevitable.Hopefully I am wrong like times before.
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JimAnderson
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Monroe Virginia
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Belated Thanks,
I new you guys would come through. Just like to keep up with what I am reading about.
Great Discussion Board and hope Earl just kind of fizzles...We've had enough for a while.
Jim
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here in the Orlando area, recovery from is progressing very slowly. It has been announced today that those people whose power has not yet been restored (over 1 million in central florida alone) will likely be in the dark at LEAST another 7 days. Apparently most of the power for this region is brought up from down south. The power grid down there has been much more severly impacted, so it's like a chain reaction.
On another note, each day since the hurricane, we have gotten very severe thunderstorms in Central Florida. Yesterday saw a flurry of tornado warnings and the same is occuring today. The torrential rains are making an already difficult situation more tenuous. I spent the morning trying to chop up some of the trees lying on my fence, but had to high-tail it indoors because of the weather.
The local people have that "deer-in-the-headlights" look when mention is made of Earl. It's generally agreed that ANY threat of another storm would create a mass panic situation in light of what we just went through. it's hard to decide which would be worse...complacency or hystrical panic.. 
--Lou
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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recmod,
So sorry to hear that. just ran before/during/after video. Hard to imagine the damage...looks a little bit like after Andrew in the hardest hit areas.
If there is any good to come from this it will be no talk of dynagel...because if there was ever a time it could have been used, it was last Friday.
My heart goes out to you and yours and anyone else still reeling.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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1234
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
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Amazing Video from
http://www.extremestorms.com/Charli...nta%20Gorda.wmv
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Interesting change from the .....
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY
DAYS 4-5. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE AND ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH. THE HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON
THIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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looks like earls headed toward mex/tex at this point, according to .
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That seems to be a temporary relief for us Floridians for the moment. I know the models are just that. Also the initialization of those models can change as fast as the center of circulation. So here is hoping that Earl has a straight narrow predictable course and that his forward speed continues to outrun the capacity to form a solid center!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks to be.I would still not opt out totally on that solution yet.The track will change again maybe even further W.HF is right looking more positive in development 1009mb est.If it strengths enough it goes more N.I would have to comment thou he sure is looking a little more W for the time being.
Edited by javlin (Sun Aug 15 2004 05:39 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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interesting that models are clustering left and suggesting a flat trajectory/weaker system with earl.. because the outflow has improved some today.. especially to the east. there is a poleward plume tailing back from the northern side of the storm as well.. better defined than earlier. will be interesting if recon finds a sharper center with earl.. looks to have slowed down a tad as well.
danielle has a window to go major in the next few hours.. maybe a few days down the road as it recurves also. intensity will probably cap where the has it, but there is a chance. my last november forecast for the season was 11/6/3.. be kinda funny if the fourth storm of the season is the third major hurricane. how often do your numbers get busted by mid-august?
i was a little suspicious of the gulf/northwest atlantic in 's wake.. but seems like nothing doing in those areas. got a mind that the piece of the trough grabbing danielle that splits and retrogrades can do something, though models not keen on this idea. just a hunch (those work on occasion).
wave i was earlier thinking of for tuesday is actually about to come off early tomorrow. later in the week when it's past 40w it may become interesting. not close to an invest for now. not sure.. the globals haven't been as keen on the forthcoming waves.. not as consistent anyway. the one coming off or the one back near 0w should at least spawn an invest between them.
HF 2131z15august
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