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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 239 (Idalia) , Major: 239 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 239 (Idalia) Major: 239 (Idalia)
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Area of interest-Tropical wave emergin off of African Coast
      #2052 - Sun Aug 18 2002 10:20 PM

A fairly strong and well-organized tropical wave will emerge off of the African Coast completely later tonight. The wave needs to be monitored because of these reasons:
1. The Azores High wasn't quite ripe for the wave that preceded this one, thus, development did not occur with that wave. This wave has a slightly better chance of development because the Azores High is becoming more favorable every day. It is now down to 1022 mb, 3-4 mb below average.
2. Large circulation envelope with strong convection. The large circulation evelope shoud remain intact with this system as it tracks across the Atlantic. The big question is: Can this wave keep it's convection as it moves across the somewhat cooler-than-normal Eastern Atlantic waters? If it can, this wave will almost certainly be TD 4 and likely Dolly. However, this is a question that remains to be answered.
3. Climotology favors this wave. It is now mid-August, and the waves should begin firing up out in the E. Atl now that climo is favorable and the conditions are improving.
As always, time will tell.

I'd like to know what you think...


Kevin


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
This wave has a chance to be a player down the road
      #2056 - Mon Aug 19 2002 12:26 AM

Well Kelvin let's see what will happen when it hits the water and if convection at least hangs on because as you said conditions are better for this wave than for the wave ahead and also wave ahead leves the moistere laging behind so let's watch it and see if it survives or not but I can say that it is the best candidate this cv season to be a TD and later Dolly but time will tell what will happen eventually.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

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