StormLover
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
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The latest I heard from the Weather Channel Tropical Update was that Typhoon Chaba now has sustained winds at 140 mph, and is expected to intensify to supertyphoon strengh. Anyone heard anything regarding its future path? It could wreak major havoc on the Philippines should it make landfall there.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It is expected to reach that strength and recurve to the NW and N well east of the Asian mainland. However, that does put it in line to potentially impact some of the other island chains in the western Pacific.
Track chart & fcst. intensity: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/images/swath.jpg
(from NWS/Guam, using positions)
NWS/Guam Tropical Cyclone Page: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
And, for a little while longer, long-range base reflectivity loop of Chaba (really interesting picture): http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.pgua.shtml
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Also you might want to check out this website too.
www.Typhoon2000.com
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Chaba now has winds to 180mph (155kt) and further strengthening - to 195mph (170kt) - is expected over the next two days. Not all too often you see a tropical system pushing that 200mph wind milestone, yet alone one doing it within radar range.
Edit: looking at the best track files on Chaba (in the JMV 3.0 data from the site), they list the estimated surface pressure at 879mb. Over the previous 6hr, that's a drop of 37mb and a wind speed increase of 30kt...very significant. It's very interesting to follow, though I hope everyone in the Marianas made it through safely.
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Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 22 2004 05:08 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Do you think that it could beat the all time record of Supertyphoon Tip in terms of barometric pressure and wind speed, I mean it still has about another two days in a very favorable enviorment for more devlopment and it is showing increasing good poleward outflow. And not to metion it is already intensifing very rapidly.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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It has a chance. Tip reached 190mph -- the projections for this one take it to 195mph. Note, however, that Tip actually had recon fly into the storm and measure the winds, while many storms that have come close since then have not. These other storms have also had higher satellite intensity estimates (T-numbers) than Tip, so there is some recent debate as to which storm is actually the strongest on record, with about 4 viable contenders.
The pressures have been following the estimates from the scale; the intensity estimates I've seen are at T7.0, though the has some at T7.5 (155kt/879mb pressure, those previously referenced). T8.0 maxes out the listed scale, though it is possible to have an estimate higher (I've heard of T8.3, for instance) than that.
If the storm were to reach T8.0 and the upgraded it from there, the winds would be at 170kt and the pressure at 858mb -- both of which would break the previously stated records. To get an idea for how strong 858mb is, in inches of mercury that is 25.34"...needless to say, very low.
Recurvature is expected soon, but until then, there is the chance for further strengthening. It's twin to the west formed too far west to significantly churn up the waters in front of Chaba, so it's certainly got a shot. As I stated in another post however, I only wish we had recon to fly into this storm...there would be some amazing data, I'm sure. As is, recon is going into a pathetic looking Estelle tomorrow, and no recon program exists in the WPac.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Dvorak estimates from the SSD page (SAB; http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html) have now come into agreement with the other set (TAFB) that is using to obtain intensity estimates for Chaba at T7.5. Unfortunately, the estimates aren't available online (other than in discussions)...and the one person I knew at the isn't there anymore, so no luck there.
Chaba is also moving out of radar range from Guam, but it's been an interesting two days of radar imagery, to say the least. It's still got a shot, but there will be debate even if it reaches T8.0 (and they correspondingly bump up the winds to 170kt/pressure down to 858mb) just because of the lack of actual obs inside the storm.
Satellite imagery (note: slow to load, even on high-speed connections) is available here - https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/wp1904sams.jpg - or via the NASA GHCC site from their global mosaic.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Today it is finally tuning northward as the mid-level steering ridge recedes, somehow I just didn't think it would be able to surpass 200 mph sustained winds but who knows how strong it was becasue we can't get that info. I heard that Guam reported gusts up to a 130 mph and sustained winds at 110 and they were about 70 miles south of the eye. But now this morning it is becoming smaller and more symetrical, it seems this is it's peak because it's recurving earlier than anyone thought at the , but I think it can still knock in some more knots as the day progresses and because of day-time heating. Also it's only moving at about 10mph to west north west. Since it is taking a sonner turn it will now have it sights set for Toyko as a cat. 2. or a cat. 3 depending on it's foward speed. I wonder how those people in Sapian Islands did, they're probably used this by now.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It is not forecasted to strengthen any further, and since storms rarely maintain this kind of intensity for very long, a gradual weakening should ensue for the next few days. It does still look very impressive on satellite, and it is the second 180mph typhoon in the W. Pacific this year.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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That latest advisory package sure was a marked change from the previous two -- instead of calling for 48hr of strengthening, calling for immediate weakening. But, you're absolutely right - though Isabel may have been an exception, storms rarely maintain this sort of intensity for very long.
The track has also changed singificantly, not good news for Japan. Previously, the storm was expected to take a hard turn to the right later in the forecast period, taking it out to sea between Japan and Iwo Jima. Now, that turn to the right isn't expected, placing the storm in direct aim of Tokyo. That's probably partially an artifact of not remaining so strong through the forecast period, among other things.
Still one to follow for the next 5 days...
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I guess you are right, that it can't become stronger but I don't no what I was thinking because usually supertyphoon's can't matain the very large pressure gradient needed to support very fast winds because the atmosphere always wants to be equal. But the disturbance's started in the first place because of the atmosphere unequal. It's like the atmosphere always want's to correct it's errors.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Mon Aug 23 2004 09:30 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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It was very weird that yesterday it was forecast to weaken to 155knots and now is forecast to remain and 170knots, it seems that water is no boundary from weakening.
Also Marce strengthened last night berfore slamming in to Tawain. The eye of the strong which was clearly visble last night is right now over northen Tawain.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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STY Chaba has re-intensified yet again, after convection persited for 6 hours. This storms eye has now become much larger then it used to be, but makes a perfect circle is located in the exact center of the storm. I feel this storm will weaken once it gets just above the latitude line that Luzon. resides, at least I hope so. Look at these satlite images www.typhoon2000.com just follow the buttons
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Tue Aug 24 2004 09:35 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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everybody lost interest in chaba when it stopped being a top-rung supertyphoon, but it's moving into japan now and still a substantial category 2 system. the thing to keep in mind about this system is that it stair-stepped and stayed fairly strong on it's terminal move.. often storms nearing japan teleconnect well with storms moving near the southeastern u.s. a few days later.
don't be surprised if does something very much like chaba.
HF 0118z30august
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I heard that typhoon chaba produced 30 to 40 waves when it hit Japan, WOW. I heard about teleconnection, aren't they waves that echo back and forth through a layer in the very upper atmosphere? I've found it's a very interesting subject to research and study.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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