Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Wednesday - 5PM Update
As expected TD #6 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm at 5pm. continues to move to the west at 14kts with sustained winds of 35 knots and pressure now down to 1005mb. still anticipates a more west northwest track and eventually a northwest track - and still cautions that the tropical storm could take a more southerly track with west northwest rather than northwest motion in a day or two. Gradual intensification is anticipated.
ED
Original Article
The strong tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa a few days ago has developed into TD #6 this evening. The Tropical Depression is located well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving to the west at 15 to 20 knots. Maximum sustained wind is 25 knots and pressure is 1009mb.
TD #6 should move on a west northwesterly course over the next couple of days while slowly growing in intensity. The tropical cyclone should become Tropical Storm on Wednesday. The long range forecast takes the storm on a more northwesterly course, however there is still some doubt about this motion since the mid Atlantic trough will not create a significant weakness in the mid Atlantic ridge located south of the trough. The forward motion is on the increase, but it should be slower than the forward motion that was noted with some of the tropical waves earlier this season
Plenty of time to watch this system evolve - and we will.
ED
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Even more on the links page.
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 09:42 PM)
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1234
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
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I don't think this storm is going to be a fish like everyone is forecasting. It will have to fight some major shear down the road to become a major cane.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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This system has what other systems so far this year have lacked--a slower speed and an eastward extending trough, both of which will ensure that the winds will wrap around fairly well to the south
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Hard to say at this point. But, I don't think it will hit Florida. I could be going out on a limb.
MaryAnn
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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TD6 continues to track just north of west at around 275 degrees with increased forward speed. My thinking remains that it will continue to slowly develop and follow a track for the next three days that will be significantly further south and west than the official track. This would be in line with the tendency so far this season for waves to develop slowly and move rapidly west. Not looking as good on IR this morning as when as I went to bed last nite. Will it be a TS today? The visibles should tell a lot.
Hurric
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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TD6 looks more like an open wave this morning if there is a real center looks to be 12N traveling west at 280 degrees,,,, due west 270 degrees, if it doesn't fall apart may just be an east coast event.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Is it possible that instead of going north the top part of TD6 pulls north and the bottom part continues west. All during the slow development there has been a dual sort of center (elongated?) and I would think it might be more likely that it will stuggle for a bit and the lower half may end up going further west than previously predicted by the models.
Will see.. has been pretty to watch but more complicated than it looks.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The convection may be elongated but then it wouldn't have been a TD if the didn't think it was TD material. We'll see at 11 but this may just be 2 steps back and one step foward, if it does get down-graded to a tropical wave.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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System doesn't look all that impressive at the moment... as stated on an earlier post, and probably most would agree, the weaker the system, and longer time it takes to develop, the more west it will go... still to early to call.... However, there is always the possibility that the system never meets its intensity forecasts.... until much later in the track... which of course would make for an interesting development... and of course, it may not develop at all... there is NOTHING certain about tropical systems.... except of course everyone's speculation on where they are going to go, and how strong they will become... mother nature just does not listen to us very much does she...
Let me add that in my opinion I do believe this system will develop and become a hurricane.... I think it has too much going for it not to become one... its does have rather a large circulation and moving at a nice speed for development.... still not sure where it will end up... and I'm still sticking to my 50/50 chance for it to spin or hit the islands.... of course this will change over time...
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Agree with above comments about the system not looking too healthy at the moment but that is normal in weak systems those pulsings up and down.What is interesting is that it is moving west 275 so I guess that by 11 AM the will have to adjust a little bit to the left the track.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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With 's at 2.5/2.5 and a fairly impressive satellite loop, I pretty much think we have at 11:00.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Believe it or not, I think she gets named at 11 am. Looks pretty good on visable sat, heading almost due west. 2.5 on the T numbers, noname on , gotta believe she's coming out to play.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, She better get named now! LOL. Great minds do think alike. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Frances she shall be. Numerical models now leaning to more of a stairstep path for with a turn back to the west well before the islands, a few even forcing her to the south a little at 5 days. Islands need to stay alert for a surprise, the battle of the models for the hearts and minds of the forecasters has started.......I see a more westward path myself. 20N 60W is possible, and storms that come in under that mark can spell trouble for the mainland down the road.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Guess you just lost your cigar.
First of all I would argue that it WAS a TS at 11:00. HF & I have said this before, but now I'm taking action. You can post without becoming a registered member, but if you post anonymously, it will be deleted. Simply ID yourself in some way
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 04:36 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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No - still a depression at 11 am. notes possibility of more westward movement after 120 hours, but of course too early to call. Odd that lists it as noname but it's a depression. -Brad
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004
...Tropical depression continuing westward with little change in
strength...no immediate threat to land...
at 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 11.4 north...longitude 39.1 west or about
1515 miles...2440 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.
The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
Thursday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...11.4 N... 39.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster BevenTropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 25, 2004
Tropical Depression Six is looking a little ragged this morning.
While still organized into bands...the associated convection has
decreased significantly in depth and coverage since sunrise. The
reason for this is not clear...although the system may be ingesting
some of the dry air seen nearby in water vapor imagery. Satellite
intensity estimates are 35 kt from SAB...30 kt from ...and 25
kt from AFWA. The initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The initial motion is now 275/15. The cyclone is currently south of
a subtropical ridge. Large-scale models indicate that a mid/
upper-level level low currently seen in water vapor imagery just
southeast of Nova Scotia will dive southeastward and weaken the
ridge from 48-96 hr and then lift out to the northeast. If this
verifies...it would allow the tropical depression to turn
northwestward after 24-36 hr...and then possibly turning more
westward by 120 hr as the ridge rebuilds to the north. The
dynamical models generally agree with this scenario. However...the
GFS has shifted its track considerably to the south and west of the
GFDL...UKMET...and . The official forecast track also shifts
to the left of the previous track...but not as far as the . The
new track is along the western edge of the other dynamical models
in best agreement with the and the consensus models.
Other than the current ragged appearance...conditions generally
apepar favorable for the cyclone to intensify for the first 72-96
hr. The intensity forecast will call for slow strengthening for
the first 48 hr or so in agreement with the current organization
and trends...then call for faster development as the system nears
hurricane strength. After 72-96 hr...if the cyclone tracks as far
north as forecast...it may encounter westerly shear to the north of
the upper-level ridge forecast to lie east-west along 18-19n. That
would limit strengthening as indicated in the forecast. An
alternate scenario would be if the cyclone stays south of the ridge
axis...which would allow greater strengthening than currently
forecast.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/1500z 11.4n 39.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 26/0000z 11.8n 41.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/1200z 12.6n 43.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 27/0000z 13.5n 45.6w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/1200z 14.5n 47.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/1200z 16.5n 49.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 29/1200z 18.5n 52.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 55.0w 75 kt
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Still TD6, still think they are looking too far north at 3-5 days.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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{Post Deleted by Moderator}
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 04:37 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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{Post deleted by moderator}
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 25 2004 04:38 PM)
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