LONNY307
Unregistered
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Andrew track not Andrew strength. That strength nobody wants. No doubt it's way to far to say it will hit any land but for those that jump the gun on calling a wave a fish will soon need to dunk there head in the ocean and if it is a fish i'll go dunk my head in the ocean. 
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caneman
Unregistered
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Quote:
It has been mentioned before, but it bears repeating. Anonymous posts will no longer be accepted. You do not have to register, simply ID yourself in some way. Thank you.
More importantly, JB has again posted today and what he has to say about is not good. He's now calling for a CAT III (perhaps) midway between Hispaniola and Bermuda by next Tuesday or Wednesday.
I smell Hattaras.
I'm guessing West Palm Beach to Charleston. This guess is bases on the system heading either due West or WNW after the NW component is gone.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yeah, I'm inclined to agree that an east coast hit is possible with this one. I've stated before that the West Palm Beach area and along the Gold coast north of Miami has been spared major hurricanes now since it got densely populated. Gotta watch the and the wave train carefully, paticularly around Labor Day......BBBBRRRRRRRRRRR!!!
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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what phil said earlier about anons.. yeah, just add a name if you don't want to register. the moderator/admin guys can tell who you are, but nobody else here can. it's an accountability thing... when the board gets active the people who screw it up are usually unregistered anons, trying to piss everybody off. if people ID themselves it's unlikely john and mike in admin will pull the unregistered posting option in those times. sucks to cut people off, but the benefit is worth it. in the meanwhile it's up to the moderators to keep things from getting messy. playing nanny really sucks, so just add a name to your post and there's no problem at all.
gotta respond to caneman.. it's way the hell out there, but that's a risky take, even for a gut feeling. that section of coastline dodges the bullet more than any other.
have more to say later.
HF 2150z25august
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Excellent observation " The has shifted left every run since the 00Z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the says. "
Just 2 days ago everyone was calling it a fish.. now seems the models are 50/50 on everything and no one is sure anymore.
Which proves the point that you can't decide where something is going to be while its wallowing over the Cape Verde Islands.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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"WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST"
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Very ominous wording if you ask me in the discussion. Not saying it would be of Andrew intensity.. not going there. No reason to at this point (very far out) but just saying.. ominous wording added in at the end of the discussion.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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rcs_satbch
Unregistered
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On the Water Vapor Loop the system east of FL still looks like an upper level low is above or just to the west of it (pulling dry air south along the GA coast). Development looks marginal at best for the time being.
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rcs_satbch
Unregistered
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I noticed the Water Vapor Loop is showing some strong westerly shear across the Carribean Sea to the west of . Will this be any sort of influence on in the days ahead as it approaches the general vacinity of the Northern Leeward Islands ?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm sure it will affect TD#6, but probably not enough to inhibit devlopment, to the point were it starts to weaken. But this is all based on the current forecast track, nothing is certain.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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there are three scenarios for this as far as I am concerned:
1) the shear will persist and likely push the storm to the north, towards the Southeast with a similar track to Fran in 1996--note how it turned north near the islands, then turned back to the west
2)slightly less likely, the shear will move westward at the same rate as , and will enhance the outflow and allow it to move west and intensify, with a track similar or to the south of Allen in 1980, but again, nowhere near the intensity.
3) least likely (right now, anyways) is that the shear will blow this system apart much like it did to TD2 and Earl in the eastern Caribbean
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I've been looking at the models and the the seems to be taking this hurricane to the direction of Galveston or a little more south. The seems to be on target this year and works well with systems in the general area of where Tropical Storm is, (ex. Andrew). If Tropical Storm does remain south of the ridge axis, it will continue, westward, and maybe inflict an area on the Gulf States as something weak or maybe mainly because of the shear in the carabiean area. That's my scenario for this storm.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> the shear will blow this system apart much like it did to TD2
Didn't TD2 eventually become Bonnie? Granted, the soon to be patented HF "rabbit voodoo hex" [tm HF] went to work on it, but it did survive to become a named entity. So, that makes it 6 for 6...TD's becoming TS's.
To my thinking, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but a classified system which becomes an open wave but then regains classified status, is still a classified system. I'm actually confused, because the Unisys lists TD2 AND Bonnie, as though they are separate systems. That doesn't make any sense...so I'll pose it to the board...Are TD2, the remnants of which became Bonnie, two separate and distinct systems or are they, for argument's sake, one in the same?
I'm being serious here. Here is how Unisys calculates this storm.
Is it proper, per se, to consider these as two distinct and separate systems, or should TD2 and Bonnie be considered to be one system, even with the several-day classification lag?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Well Phil... think Unisys for now is correct. There was a TD2.
Remnants of TD2 developed into Bonnie.
Remnants or TD2.. remants means pieces of...
Imagine at the end of the season the will write the official book on this one...
NOW... back to the topic 
Think in the morning the track will be pulled more to the left.
Read what SNONUT wrote this evening. He seems to feel what many others are also saying. Someone ..somewhere on the East Coast might really have to deal with this.. possibly even the islands.
Bill Kamal on the news here tonight spoke of all interests in the Turks and Virigin Islands paying close attn to this storm.
Sure 11pm team will say the same.
Looking like a Labor Day Cane right now.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I agree with you partially, in physical terms they are the same storm but then in techinal terms, which the Unisys is in to, it isn't. If a depression forms but then dies it becomes a totally different system, it's like it's re-born.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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They came out with the 11pm discussion very early tonight - I'm reading it now - and the intensity is still 35kt. Should make for some interesting results to the first track/intensity forecast of the storm!
The 120hr position is ever-so-slightly to the left of the previous position, being just 1 degree further west than before (but no further north). The official track is still well left of the UKMET and well right of the , agreeing with most of the other models and with most previous thinking. See no reason to disagree except to maybe nudge the track a bit further to the left...but not too much, maybe a degree or so. Intensity forecast...no qualms there either.
Wish I had more to add, but classes have begun here once again and those late night hours of a week or two ago have come and gone, unfortunately.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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quick note on TD2/bonnie: TD 6/7 last year is an example of a similar occurrence.. not as much lag time between closed systems this time, nor did the system become quite as indistinct.. but you may have noticed the system we're currently on, .. was TD 6. very simple logic follows.. the has operationally regarded bonnie as a TD 2 reincarnation.
frances is tending a bit left of my previous thought track. i've been on to this no-quick-out-recurvature line for a few days now, finally there's enough model support that the official line is just that.. but of course there's always a chance can still find some bizarre way to recurve.
but i'm not going with that. speed up the official, have a more pronounced stair step and an intensity cough in the track for the weekend.. and you have my philosophy.. will turn nw and slow for a time in response to the ridge weakness, miss the islands, negotiate some shear, and then turn left and probably accelerate westward next week. i keep hearing references to Andrew.. can only blink at that. i'm thinking more of a floyd situation, because i don't expect there to be enough ridge near the east coast late next week for to come barreling across florida. always safer to bet on wilmington or morehead city north carolina.. something like that. really no idea at this point, because is what i'm going by and i know takes a few days to feel out the pattern and get the wavelengths/speed/amplitudes close enough to make educated guesses on. right now it's still a shot in the dark.. at a target that is for now distant. timetable for arrival, if it makes it across.. is around saturday the 4th. this would fairly well teleconnect with typhoon chaba smacking japan in a couple days time.
closer in to home, getting a better feel for the disturbance off the southeast coast. it isn't in a rush to develop, but won't be going much of anywhere until the weekend.. time is still on it's side. low level convergence is too weak to jam a low together, it's going to live or die on whether a convective flare can get an embryonic center started. there is decent ridging aloft.. mid/upper low peeling away into the gulf is enhancing it for now. disturbed weather also trying to focus away east near bermuda.. but i'm going to stick with the area east of jacksonville, near 80w. give or take 50 miles i think that's the place.
new wave skipping merrily off the african coast, and is showing some development by early next week on it.. so will stay appraised.
minor feature.. weak trough near 26/52 sliding westward... nearing the mid oceanic trough. a convective burst could modify this small feature in a heartbeat.. but very low potential.
that's the line for now. is getting retired, one way or another... those folks may have jinxed us.
HF 0251z26august
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I just don't see this storm getting that far north that quickly. I certainly am I on the side of the at this point. That trough is going to have look much better for me to believe it's going to effect that much. They are obviously thinking that the ridge breakdown is what will have the effect on the system, and not the trough so much. Still, I am not buying that much of a move to north right now.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Matt033
Unregistered
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A small has formed over the last few hours. With perfect outflow on the west,southwest,northwestern quads. While the storm still has only poor to fair outflow on the eastern quad. Also to note is a small pin point hole forming around 12.3/42 at this hour moving west with a every so slightly north of west. information also sees kind of a eye like future but is not closed as of this moment.
One thing is remember what a storm named Isabel, did once it got loose of the trough last year. What happen is it went under a ridge of high pressure. Then the eastern quad of the storm had the back side of the trough to make a nice outflow channel. This also happen with Floyd and Andrew with many other big storm in the past. If the trough catchs this system in looses it. Then watch out. If the trough doe's not catch it then this system will move more westward at around 18 to 20 mph. Just to fast for it to get to strong that fast. In would likely not have the nearly the enviroment to bomb as if the trough catchs it. The last few runs of the has been for more westward. So we will see what happens.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Frances now has a T-number of 3.0/3.0.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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It is significant that each New Run of the global models has a
forecast track farther to the west...so if this trend continues...there will be interesting days ahead.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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