caneman
Unregistered
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Quote:
what phil said earlier about anons.. yeah, just add a name if you don't want to register. the moderator/admin guys can tell who you are, but nobody else here can. it's an accountability thing... when the board gets active the people who screw it up are usually unregistered anons, trying to piss everybody off. if people ID themselves it's unlikely john and mike in admin will pull the unregistered posting option in those times. sucks to cut people off, but the benefit is worth it. in the meanwhile it's up to the moderators to keep things from getting messy. playing nanny really sucks, so just add a name to your post and there's no problem at all.
gotta respond to caneman.. it's way the hell out there, but that's a risky take, even for a gut feeling. that section of coastline dodges the bullet more than any other.
have more to say later.
HF 2150z25august
I've posted in other boards my concern is that Florida use to be visited by both minor and majors far more frequently than is has in the past 30 years and can't help to wonder if we're not getting back to that pattern. The 5:30 looks mighty ominous. And furthers more and more models have trended left. What is the old saying - the trend is your friend? 5 day forecast has it at 20-60 and if that bears out, it would seem someone is apt to get hit with the type of ridge that is forecast to build in.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Just yesterday the models had going to Galveston area, now where taking a more northerly track as was excepted. My thoughts on this system, is that it will hit the carolinas (most likely outer banks area) as a CAT.2 and take it self up to the northeast and impacting LI as a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression. But this track could change depending on when the next cold front comes through. The other system, I'm not so sure about. As Hank Frank said before, it all matters on how it can do in the day if it wants to survive. This may become another system but I'm to sure, my confindence is low.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Looking at her this morning.. she's not only developing a .. but shes developing banding as in an eye wall. IF was a term paper she'd be called filled with well thought out ideas, well developed and excellent grammar usage.
Climbing enough that the shear should affect her less and think shear is forecast to lessen.. would like to know if that is true.
And, you are right..sometimes the trough grabs it but just can't hold on.
My question is ..is there a trough that strong to grab her.
Right now.. she looks pretty amazing out there all alone in the Atlantic. Lifting a drop in latitude but for how long?
Keep watching...enjoy watching from a distance right now because she's going to get closer..that much is for sure.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Anon
Unregistered
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I think Unisys is wrong, since Tropical Storm Bonnie was not a new tropical depression (that is, we had tropical depression 3 become and 4 become Danielle etc.).
If Tropical Storm Bonnie was a different entity from TD2, it would've taken up a slot as TD3 and subsequent storms should be TD4 --> , etc.
Sometimes the will make two separate entities from the same wave such as last year with TD6 and TD7.
~David
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Yes, it does look good this morning. I don't really think it will happen today, but wouldn't be surprised to see an eye peeking out from under the cover of the .
I am still leaning towards a path left of the official track. Somewhere from St. Croix on the south to some place to the left of the 20n, 60w corner.
A few more days to enjoy before things are looking more serious for someone along the way. For now, it's models to the left, models to the right, and your guess is as good as mine.
Hurric
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Think the Galveston Run can now be thrown out. Still far out, yes... your guess is as good as mine.
Maybe a blend of Allen and Fran?
Not going that far west but not recurving so much either
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Anybody got any links to tracking models? Hurricane Alley hasn't been updated since yesterday.
Thanks.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Larry
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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This is one of my favorites:
Mid-Atlantic Wx.com
Larry
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Hardcore
Unregistered
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Quote:
This is one of my favorites:
Mid-Atlantic Wx.com
Larry
I like this one wunderground models
Hardcore, please use the URL, do not post the image. Thanks.
Fran thread
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Aug 26 2004 10:38 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The is now putting the system to hit Georgia, but I think this is the correct genral path, just more to the north. Also CLIPPER as seems to be giving that same genral path. So both dynamical and statiscal models are in agreement, as Hurric said before, I think we should throw out the Galveston run but I did feel that if the system devloped when it was in that area it would have taken that path, which the had shown.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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you dont throw out any path more then 5 days out, models will continue to change. Never throw out anything more then that many days
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I do agree with you, thankyou. Models are the only way to aide us on our forecasts, besides other people, so for now I follow the crowd.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Thu Aug 26 2004 10:47 AM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TS remains at this category for the 11:00 update. A lot of good posts, so I'll be brief. has excellent satellite signature, with pretty strong convection...and an eye...which would seem to put her at very close to Hurricane strength...would think that she will be at 5:00. She's over very warm water and in a low-shear environment, so it's not hard to argue that further strengthening will occur.
Way way to early to tell where she'll go, but this has the classic CV Hattaras look to it. All depends upon how deep and how strong the trof gets, and then whether she can duck under the developing ridge further west. This could be a huge headache for the entire East Coast late next week into the holiday weekend. I would not discount this becoming a major cane as it takes aim at the coast...
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Looking good, I guess I'm seeing a more Northerly component to it's Westerly movement.
So what do you think the cut off is for it to be a fish?
15N 55W ?? 
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Regarding the following quote from the discussion I would say that since one of the main steering features for the future track relies upon a low coming down from Canada then I would give much weight to the Canadian's evaluation of the current situation... more than maybe at other times.
Agree also that the low isn't going to dig much and am worried about the ridge rebuilding.
"THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN
HOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF
IN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE LOW OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND MODEL SHOW MORE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE ...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS
LIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO
BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE
PAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE -GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK BY 96 HOURS"
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zacros
Unregistered
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Anyone have any thoughts about the frontal boundary sitting off of the Carolina coast. I am sitting here in Charleston watching rain continue to push onshore. Could a low form in this location? Given some of the long-term forecast (as questionable as they are) for , a double whammy for the carolinas could happen. I have some friends in the McClellenville and Georgetown areas (north of Charleston) where hit the second time that are still cleaning up debris. I'm sure that they would rather not have another hit this year. Hmm...feels like hurricane weather. Any thoughts?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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I've been watching it, too. My guess is that it's not going anywhere.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I don't get a good feeling about this storm. It's really a gut instinct, but I'm seeing a lot of the same things that I did with Isabel last year, down to the northerly jog that would put it just north of the islands. The handled that storm very well last year, so it will be interested to see how this plays out. I don't think the intensity will be anything like that, but you-never-know with these CV storms.
Class time, so I've got to run...more later, perhaps.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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EriktheFled
Unregistered
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Looks like I was a bit too hasty myself with the WNW track; 's track has been consistently left of the forecast. If that bias continues, it may clip the NE Antilles in a few days.
Frances has a lot going for it on its current track. There are warm SST anomalies of about 0.5 C along its forecast path, and north of the Antilles the SSTs will be especially favorable, 29 C <. Its rather small size--which seems to be typical of storms this year--is another plus, as it allows for rapid changes in intensity (up *or* down, it should be noted). So for now, I have to agree with the Floyd or Isabel analogue crowd, though I'm still not going so far as to expect landfall on the East Coast at this stage of the game.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Frances is producing an excellent outflow boundary, which is helping to push some of the dry air away. Right now that seems about the only thing to inhibit strengthening. That's a lot of dry air.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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