Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Anybody watching Gaston? It's holding together remarkably well. It almost looks like it's getting stronger. I wonder what will happen when it gets closer to the ocean. Didn't Danny intensify over marshy land that was already soaked? This could be an interesting afternoon in Tidewather VA.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looking at visible imagery, is exhibiting the dry slot around the eye that is typical of category three hurricanes moving through areas of dry air or cooler water. This one appears to be moving through dry air, as seen on the wv images over the past few days
Frances will not make it to category 5, and may not even strenghen back to a four.
I think it will go about 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral on Sep 4/5 and then go into Cape Fear with winds at 105-115 about 18 hours later
as for Gaston, it has an excellent chance of regenerating if it is not over land for more than 24 hours more
Danny did regenerate to 50-60 mph on July 24 1997 off of the Delmarva Peninsula
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This is our next hurricane, this one just came off africa and it's already looking like a tropical storm. Any one's thoughts on 97, where will it go, how strong will it become? 9 named storms in August, imagine what sept going to bel like.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)
8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)
I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph.
While your reasoning is well taken, and not disagreed with, I would note your positions did not seem to take into account that there was a Northerly component omitted. The diagonal line on the 29th could have been much as long as (and considering the speed changes the noted) the horizontal line of the 30th....there was a change of direction from WNW to W during that period. While it did slow down some, then sped up, I'm not sure it was double...more like a low of 8 and now about 12 which isnt double. But, if you are right, yes, the further and faster it gets west, the more likely Florida gets the prize.
Gotta go teach my class about Hurri...er Computers... You guys kkeep the vigil and I wish all of you out there God's speed and protection.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I was comparing the season to 1969 back in June and July, and said that this year, although likely to be active, would not be nearly as active as '69
16 is the highest i have ever forecast in the last 8 years of doing the seasonals, and that could be a little low
since 1998 we have averaged 9-10 storms after August
We are very likely to see form by the end of tomorrow
this is not a forecast, but it is entirely possible that if the active trend continues, we could very well reach the activity of even 1995, and if September is as active as August, we could reach the end of the name list (Sep as active as August would be 18, add a few in October, we could easily reach "w")
if anyone is interested, here are my other seven annual (and very inaccurate) forecasts
previous on left, actual on right
1997: 12 7
1998: 8 14
1999: 8 12
2000: 7 14
2001: 10 15
2002: 7 12
2003: 11 16
2004: 16 19+?
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Nah I think god is out of the protection racket these days.....
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Rabbit,
It seems every year we get more and more named systems, this trend seems to be continuing, what could it be related to gobal warming, nah way to fast. Maybe this is realtive to the sun spot cycle, otherwise I'm stumped. This is very dangerous, having more and more hurricanes each year and hitting land as a CAT 4.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Its the pre-El Nino
just remember how incredibly active 1995 and 1996 were, then 1997 was very quiet
Last and this year will likely add up to a high amount, and next year willl likely be pretty quiet (then again, i said the same thing in 2000, 2001, 20002, and last year about the following season)
maybe the season is making up for June and July...
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Take a look a this. Some storm mitosis from in the future? I wonder how a split hurricane situation would play out?
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/noga...;hour=Animation
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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My father reminded me Friday that this was the anniversary of a Cat four storm crossing Florida from the southeast. He remembers the house he was in coming apart that night. Take a look at track, intensity, and Date. A lot of similarities with . I wish the map were a little more detailed.
1949 hurricane 2
Hurric
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Larry
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Not only watching, but experiencing Gaston passing directly over central NC. Expecting 2-6" of rain. Wind gusts were to 32 mph, just enough to bring down a few trees to knock out power to 6500 homes. Local radar loops were fascinating to watch as Gaston came over. I just hope those radar loops don't show next weekend if it comes towards NC.....
Joe Bastardi should get an A+ for calling Gaston. He also mentioned on his video today that he thought Gaston could bring more rain than expected to the Tidewater area since it seems to be maintaining good structure over land.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Yes it is looking like a possibility........................that puts most of the state behind the 8 ball once again. Thanks for the link.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
Nah I think god is out of the protection racket these days.....
That's not true at all Redbird.
But, its' still up to us to take all the precautions necessary to preserve life and property.
Belive me, we can use all the help we can get.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Hey religion does bring some people comfort at a time like this...............I understand that.....................
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This storm poses a danger to us on Long Island, mainly montauk and the hamptons, where I am right now. Hopefully it will go right out to see, as described by the forecast but I'm prepared for the worst. It's packing winds of 50 mph and gusts up to 60.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Mon Aug 30 2004 12:49 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Last year, I think it was Richiesurfs, posted this great link.
If you look out to 144 hours, it's interesting where the strongest surf is...is this model taking up the coast maybe? Good news for FL if that's the case, but that doesn't make ME feel any better. What do y'all think?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I'll throw this in......
18Z does what the link above to "1949 hurricane 2" did; a hit north of Miami, and going up the center of Florida. Back to the west again. 12Z , which has been one of the left leaning models, puts her in the center of the south Bahama'a in about three days. The is supposed to take the info from the hurricane hunters and put it to good use about as well as any of the models.
Buddy at work and myself banged heads about last night to see what we could come up with, and we think this could be a space coast hit and follow the coast inland. I see no saving NW turn until it's too late, but if it misses the Cape for some reason, then it won't touch Florida ( with the eye, anyway), but all the piers that we rebuilt after Floyd will be gone again. But my confidence at this point is low to a complete miss.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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accuweather's track.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Accuweather's track has a pretty hefty curve, though one would guess it's possible. I was looking at the margin for error, as the extreme right side looks improbable, though that's what we're all wishing. Looking at the latest satellites, is looking much more symetrical and potentially stronger.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
Edited by ShaggyDude (Mon Aug 30 2004 01:26 PM)
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Joepub, can u please post the link to the 18Z model run.
Thanks
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