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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
      #21352 - Sun Aug 29 2004 06:27 PM

Very busy in the Tropics today. Gaston never quite made it to Hurricane status, and landfalled as a tropical storm earlier in the day. It's moving slowing and dropping tons of rain.

IWe got more too, there was a low area SE of Cape Hatteras that formed relatively quicking into Tropical Storm Hermine. This storm is likely going to remain out at see, but it complicated things for...

Hurricane Frances is holding as a strong category 4 storm, and is continuing on the track westward. Model trends will be important but it's safe to bet anyone in Florida up through the Carolinas will want to watch this one as it potentially will cause some concern over the labor day holiday weekend.

More to come later in the week...

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
Gaston Models
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
All model "Spaghetti" for Gaston from hurricanealley


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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #21363 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:24 PM

May just be me...but is there a southwest jog going on? if so there goes model runs.... that could mean that she may pass close to the islands like the "AVN" showed..... watch out in PR and islands.... looks like Frances may pay a close visit....
I starting to see signs that the HIGH to the north is going to be real strong after gaston/hermine get through.....


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeG]
      #21364 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:27 PM

I think with her phases it is mostly a wobble but as others have pointed out, pretty much a west track for now.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeG]
      #21365 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:29 PM

Gary Gray's Model Discussion is up and he is predicting (albeit going out on a limb) a South Florida/Florida Landfall at least at this time..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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MikeG
Unregistered




Recon [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21366 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:31 PM

URNT12 KNHC 292302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/2302Z
B. 18 DEG 46 MIN N
55 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2700 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 120 DEG 105 KT
G. 030 DEG 15 NM
H. 954 MB
I. 11 C/ 3080 M
J. 18 C/ 3080 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/0.5 NM
P. AF861 0106A Frances OB 22
MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 2113Z


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21367 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:32 PM

Toho..........how do I get a look at this model?

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BillD
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeG]
      #21370 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:35 PM

No, not just you. I mentioned near the end of the last thread, then it was just one frame, now it is several. Seems as if the GFS might have a good handle on this puppy. Which doesn't make me too happy sitting here in Miami...

Latest recon vortex message has the pressure up slightly to 954, and the winds up to 118, and the eye expanding. Typical fluctuations at this point. Also shows a slight south of west movement.

Bill


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: Redbird]
      #21371 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:36 PM

Follow this link http://flhurricane.com/spotlight.php?1 and scroll to the bottom of the page and look for Trantech Model Discuss by Gary Gray..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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redbird
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21373 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:38 PM

Thanks will check that...............you are staying with friends or relatives right? I shudder knowing it shoulda been us up here.

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ShaggyDude
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: redbird]
      #21375 - Sun Aug 29 2004 07:48 PM

Whew, that's a pretty noticeably southerly wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Lotta -ys, huh?

Edited by ShaggyDude (Sun Aug 29 2004 07:49 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21383 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:03 PM

Looks like it wobbled itself back ...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Frances' Wobbles [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21387 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:10 PM

I believe the wobbling is 'covered' by its sheer power but continues its W-NW path on its current western track, (Staircase Approach)

I will pay attention Wed PM when the 72 hour window is upon us and assessment is based on the projected track.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #21390 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:19 PM

Well, it's been reduced to High Cat 3, as per Adv 20A

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21391 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM

winds from recon sust. near 125mph w/then 954mb

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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21392 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:24 PM

Quote:

Well, it's been reduced to High Cat 3, as per Adv 20A


That is a step in the right direction if it is going to make a landfall on the EC Florida (or any landfall for that matter), but not enough. Let's hope it has peaked and is on the back side of it's power curve. Note I said 'hope', not that I believe it is....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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BillD
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Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: Ricreig]
      #21393 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:31 PM

That's why we call them wobbles... track overall is almost due west.

There is no real reason for this storm not to maintain high cat3 or even cat4 status. There is minimal shear and lots of warm water ahead of it. However some models do predict a reduction in strength before landfall, it isn't clear what would cause that. Gary Gray discusses this in his recent forecast, an interesting read.

Bill


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: Ricreig]
      #21394 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:34 PM

If I recall correctly, NHC forecasted some variance in the intensity to take place. I still think it is too soon to tell.

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HanKFranK
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triad on the 29th [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #21395 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:35 PM

three active systems of tropical storm strength today.. first time that's happened since september 26, 2002.
going to condense gaston and hermine.. gaston dropped to depression status at 8pm edt, should track far enough inland so that it doesn't reintensify. if the circulation begins to elongate hermine's small circulation to the east may not be absorbed as soon as forecast. the northeasterly shear impacting the system should end before it leaves support SSTs around 37N.. possible it may deepen enough to be a discrete system approaching southeastern new england on tuesday.
recon fixes and data indicate Frances is weaker.. eye has been growing less symmetric and become a bit cloud filled today.. probably a combination eyewall contraction and mild vertical shear. forward speed has slowed and the system has wobbled, as the eye structure is periodically unstable and the solidifying subtropical ridge is engaging the system.
my take is that it oscillates between cat 3-4 for the next day or so, but as the system accelerates back to 10-12kt forward speed it should stabilize and deepen to solid 4 status.. perhaps 5.
modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point. model handling should improve drastically over the next two days and by tuesday afternoon i'll be ready to specify a strike point with some skill.
anywho..
disturbed weather in the northern gulf merits a glance but in no rush to organize. very low probability.
wave exiting africa should be an invest inside 36 hours.. that's my perp for the next system.
to get an idea of which models to trust, pay attention most to the ones who change the least over the next run.. with the new recon data.
HF 0035z30august


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Frances' Wobbles [Re: BillD]
      #21396 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:39 PM

Quote:

That's why we call them wobbles... track overall is almost due west.

There is no real reason for this storm not to maintain high cat3 or even cat4 status. There is minimal shear and lots of warm water ahead of it. However some models do predict a reduction in strength before landfall, it isn't clear what would cause that. Gary Gray discusses this in his recent forecast, an interesting read.

Bill


While it is wobbling, it has also grown much bigger: From the NHC:

[QUOTE]Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles... 140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...204 km.[/QUOTE]

Shoot, there are places where the entire state of Florida isn't much wider than that. This storm remains powerful and now is also LARGE.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: triad on the 29th [Re: HanKFranK]
      #21397 - Sun Aug 29 2004 08:55 PM

Quote:

modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point.


HF, you as well as anyone here on the forum knows that with a storm that has hurricane force winds extending 85 mi (at this time) from center, even a brush along the coast will expose a tremendously large area to hurricane force winds and virtually all but the extreme NW corner of the state to TS winds. We all need to remind ourselves that a hurricane track isn't a line, it is a swath. While the effects diminish with distance, people 10 or more miles inland (with a 20 mi eye) will experience eyewall conditions and that is if the eye doesn't actually go inland beyond the half-way point. CIties as far inland as St Cloud, East Orlando, Jaxonville and points north would likely experience CAT III or high Cat II winds. One way or another, it appears likely that Florida will suffer the effects almost state wide of a 2nd major storm. Are you aware of any other historical data where this has happened in the past? 1871 near Cocoa, I think had 2 storms in as many weeks, but I don't think they were majors.???

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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