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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RICHIE AT WORK
Unregistered




Re: Frances track [Re: Hurric]
      #21539 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM

Hurric,

I talked about that 1949 storm yesterday as being the last major hurricane to have its eye go over here in Palm Beach County. It has been 55 years since a major crossed Palm Beach County, a longgggg time. That storm came in at Jupiter Inlet, just where they were mentioning a possible landfall for Frances as of yesterday.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: troy2]
      #21540 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:29 PM

18Z GFS Run

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Frances track [Re: Unregistered User]
      #21541 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:30 PM

Quote:

you people are alarmists!




Being alarmed is not a perquisite for exposure to eminent danger.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #21542 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:35 PM

Yeah I was thinking that too...................it just does not look good for us in the space coast area.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
18Z GFS [Re: troy2]
      #21543 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:38 PM

Thanks Phil.

I'm with ShaggyDude on his statement. The right side of that track cannot happen IMO. Ain't gonna see it. Florida does an evac of the east coast even if it misses, it's that close.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: 18Z GFS [Re: joepub1]
      #21544 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:40 PM

Joe in JAX I would be interested in knowing why it is impossible for the right side of that track to play out.

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delta
Unregistered




Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms [Re: MikeC]
      #21545 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:41 PM

GFS model link.
Look @ #`s 108 thru 156.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/gfsanim.html


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: LI Phil]
      #21546 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:44 PM

What in the world would cause that thing to do what looked to be an S-curve over the Central Florida Area?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #21547 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:46 PM

That is what I would like to know too.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track [Re: LI Phil]
      #21548 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:47 PM

That's scary! But note it is way left of its previous tracks.

--------------------
doug


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: 18Z GFS [Re: Redbird]
      #21549 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM

Redbird, it would be pretty near impossible for a curve like that to happen, as it would have to start the northly trek now, and go nearly due north in 72-120 hours. If the ridge is just supposed to start to break up in that time frame, there's no way Frances will be heading at a high enough angle to miss the continental U.S. And I agree with joepub1, somebody, or everybody, on the east coast of Flordia will have mandatory evactuations before it's over.

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track [Re: doug]
      #21550 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:52 PM

The scariest thing has this taking almost 24hrs to go from vero to Jacksonville. That's a lot of rain in Central Florida. The Sentinel had a great article saying that most subdivisions were built to withstand 7 inches of rain over a 24 hour period. If, and that's a big IF, Frances were to slowly creep over Florida, there would be massive flooding.
Here's a quote:
But double or triple that amount of rain, and streets would flood, and the St. Johns River would rise and back up creeks and tributaries that feed into it.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track [Re: doug]
      #21551 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:54 PM

Go to the Patrick AF site.

https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/stormplot1.jpg


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jbcmh81
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: Rabbit]
      #21552 - Mon Aug 30 2004 01:57 PM

Rabbit, I don't know where you get your information from, but there is NO connection between current activity and the future formation of an El-Nino. El-Ninos can affect hurricane seasons, but they really have no relation to them. 1997 was quiet BECAUSE of the raging El-Nino that year. The East Pac season was active in 1997 because of it, but at the same time prevented systems from forming in the Atlantic. We didn't have that in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, or this year. Also, ENSO is just one factor in determining how active a hurricane season will be. With the exception of 1997, every year since 1995 has been marginally to very favorable for tropical development. There is no rule that says we have to have a quiet season after a few active ones. Weather does not follow some human guideline just as hurricanes do not read models to tell them where to go.

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: 97L [Re: jbcmh81]
      #21553 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:00 PM

from an email at KSC

--Hurricane Frances is a dangerous storm. Already a category 3 storm, she could elevate to a Category 4 or 5 before landfall. It is very early to determine with any degree of certainty where she will go, however one thing is for certain, we must be prepared. The Hurricane Center official track is less than 50 miles from KSC. Unlike Hugo, Isabel, and Floyd and other similar storms which have curved north before reaching Florida, there are no obvious upper air features to protect us—the door is open along the entire Florida coast.



Take the time now to take care of your home and family. If evacuation is deemed necessary, the announcement to do so could come as early as late Thursday or early Friday. This depends on the forward movement of the storm, and expected path of travel. Barrier Island evacuations are announced by Brevard County based on data received from the National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service.



It is not to early to think about an evacuation location. Reservations in hotels can always be canceled, if not needed. I have enclosed a checklist of necessary items that you may need following a storm. Don't wait until the last minute to start preparing, do it now. Again, this is a very dangerous storm.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Frances track-GFDL model [Re: recmod]
      #21554 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM

The GFDL model was relaible all along in Charley and was very accurate about 36 hours before Charley had land fall, and was even good on intensity...Watch this model on Wednesday...that's what iIwill be doing.

--------------------
doug


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #21555 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM

What in the world would cause that thing to do what looked to be an S-curve over the Central Florida Area?

Frances rides along the edge of the ridge. Gaston exits to the NE. Leaves weak trof behind that allows Frances to go WNW to maybe almost NW. Trof lifts out, high pressure get a kick in the pants from the north, builds in again , causes Frances back to WNW-W again until she can find the edge of the ridge to go polar again. This plays out to a point with alot of the models, on the globals just watch to the north as the ridge builds back. This is the only way most of the east coast of FL can take a direct hit, this is almost exactly how it has to set itself up.


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RICHIE AT WORK
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: troy2]
      #21556 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM

Unlike Hugo, Isabel, and Floyd and other similar storms which have curved north before reaching Florida, there are no obvious upper air features to protect us—the door is open along the entire Florida coast.

I think that says it all !!!!!


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: troy2]
      #21557 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:04 PM

THANK YOU! I am doing just that with supplies and seeking evac plans.

I was just posting possible tracks I got off the net. I hope noone thinks I am trying to interpret them. I am not trained to do that........all I know is get my affairs in order now.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Surf's Up dudes... [Re: joepub1]
      #21558 - Mon Aug 30 2004 02:05 PM

Excellent analysis joepub...on this water vapor loop you can see the ridge forcing Frances to stay on her current westward jog, but can also see the trof being left behind by Hermine...which should serve to pull Frances more northward...at this point, we're not sure just how strong the next ridge will be, and that's where it becomes crucial for NE FL.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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