Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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I don't get it. 0Z has about 350 east of stuart, FL, after movng almost due north from the eastern tip of Cuba (at a latitude of about 25 N), cuba used as a reference point. the 0z ETA has it going over central cuba west!!!! Somethings wrong with this picture. shows moving north into a building ridge to her north!. Question here is does the model turn her west again towards the FL peninsula!!!!
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Glenn Burns from WSB-TV here in Atlanta seems to be the only on-air meterologist taking very seriously. His latest prediction is that will hit somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne on either late Thursday or early Friday, head up through South Georgia and park over Atlanta for the weekend....If this stationary front doesen't skeedaddle out of here soon, Us folks in Atlanta may be looking for Noah and his animals walking down Peachtree St. I think the next 24 hours will tell us when and where, and knowing Glenn's track record, I would go with his forecast over the other three TV Stations here.
Now, Atlanta is not on a coast and very rarely gets hit by tropical storms, but with the world's busiest airport here, it could mess up airline traffic for most of the US over Labor Day weekend..... :?:
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I've been thinking that may clip the FL Keys and enter the Gulf kinda like Georges did-except Georges was a little further South.
Going to be interesting tracking this thing!
And College Football starts this weekend! Hope doesn't ruin it! 
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Did you happen to notice the newest CV storm brewing on these maps?? At 96hrs it still a long way off but something else to think able
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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The new models are fliping back to the east .
What a busy week this is going to be .
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well, yes, the has a different track, but the reasoning and synoptics are different than the Eta...the has a weaker and more progressive ridge that only briefly builds south and then ejects to the east, allowing to turn in it's wake. Interesting, to say the least, but I ain't convinced...at least not yet....this run really evolves the ridge/trough pattern differently than prior runs, as well as the Eta...not saying it is wrong, but it is different.
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Jason Kelley
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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GFS actually not only misses florida on new ooz model run but only scraps the bahamas with TS force winds and moves it NNW with possible landfall in 6 day near the outerbanks NC.
Lets see 2 more runs of this to think this might happen due to weakness in the mid atlantic states and the ridge weaker out in the atlantic. Other model runs coming in.
scottsvb
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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This seemed to happen last night too, when they fed new data into the models, and then a correction occured..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Check out Goes12 and zoom on Gaston. It appears that an eye is forming as it nears the coast. If so, it could blow up quick if it hits the right warm water pocket. Looks like the Jersey Shoreline and maybe Long Island are in for some action. Enjoy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Canadian model is out with the ooz run and shows the same as the 12Z run thru WPB up and out of tpa florida. I cant remember but jason if your getting this, the has the new data in it also right? Anyways waiting on more models.
scottsvb
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't recall...if they were using the EDAS or GDAS initializations, then yes, it is in there, but I am not familiar enough with the Canadian Modelliing schema to know if they use our initializations, or if we provide it to them in a timely enough fashion of thier own initialization...my gut tells me it is probably in there.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That is horrible! I'll say extra prayers for those people tonight. Sometimes we get so focused on a single thing we forget that there are other things out there just as deadly as a hurricane. I can't even imagine what would happen if a dam broke. Especially in the middle of the night. That's the scariest part of any scenario..hurricane, earthquake, tornado, floods, etc. At least if it happens during the day you feel as though you have some control over it. Not so at night.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Correct Jason, I wasnt sure also, was going to call a friend up in ruskin NWS here but saw the time. I wasnt sure if they get the info before the run is initialized.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Hope that dam holds up. Gaston is dumping tons of rain on Virginia. It was a slow moving wet storm. Goes to show you that sometimes it's not the winds but the rain that can cause a lot of damage. For all his wind, did not dump much rain partially due to his rapid speed as he crossed the state.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Navy is out and is simular to the and a tad more w then it was over the last 2 days. It makes landfal near WPB moving NW. I wish if the had its 18Z run as the ooz then this would be almost unaminous on a Miami-Vero beach landfall but still models will change. Im going to note also that by noon today (tues) the already shows a WNW motion taking this to near 23N and 70W. Lets see if it reinializes the motion by 12Z today. scottsvb
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, Glenn Burns is the best met (IMHO) in Atlanta. When I lived at home, that's the only guy my father watched. He was usually correct. A week ago Saturday my Mom woke up to find out the cables on the boat dock had snapped and it was floating down into the cove, both boats attached. I think they have just gotten so much rain that it just couldn't handle anymore, and my Mom said that they had a really bad storm the night before. Atlanta might not be on the coast, but it sure takes a lot of beatings from tropical weather.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Lets see if I can put this question into words. I was watching the NOAA water vapor loop and looking behind , to the south, I see a wave - finger, moving and appears to be pushing . Could this be why is gaining some forward speed? Thanks
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Let me repost what i ment,, i ment 23N 70W not by noon today (ugh) but moving towards that spot by weds morning.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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What you are seeing is the , or a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, that is behind and helping to ventilate it. It is really not a steering force, as the trof is expanding a bit as is moving away...in other words, is affecting it, not the other way around....
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Scott...when was just beginning to look as though it might be a real threat to Tampa, Phillips said, "If the model runs are still the same this time tomorrow night, we may be in real trouble." That was on Tuesday, and on Wednesday they were still the same. This is an all too familiar reminder of his thoughts. Even though it made landfall south of TB, it was only off by about 70 or so miles, which was in the cone.
If I hear that tomorrow, I'm going out to restock what we used. The track has been trending left then right then back left again, but it really hasn't changed all that much and now with the forward speed moving faster, they're talking about 8:00am Saturday instead of 2am Monday. That's also eerily familiar.
Remember how the pressure had dropped but the winds didn't catch up until right before landfall? That caught everyone by surprise. So the wording "a conservative estimate" used by the when talking about the winds makes the hair on my fairly small head stand up on edge.
I want to say this about our local mets: we have some really good ones and they sure worked around the clock with . However, Phillips kept plugging himself with the line "we were the first ones to tell you this" about the track change, yet it wasn't until a few really ticked off viewers from the inland counties made him realize that just because it was not going to devastate TB didn't mean that the interior counties were off the hook. It actually took until almost 2:00pm for him to start talking TO the inland counties. BayNews9 noticed the change in the track an hour before they did and also the impact it would have on the inland counties.
I guess what really gets my goat is when a weather person keeps patting themselves on the back (he's still doing it) for doing what he's supposed to do in the first place. It's like a fireman going on TV telling everyone that he put out the fire first. Of course they do, that's what they have to do. I just don't like the "I was the best and the first" plugs. Especially when they weren't.
Now, why I ever went off on that rant is beyone me, I suppose I'm just tired. I guess I just want people to tell me what's going to happen and what I can expect without having to listen to them tooting their own horn.
I think I'll go do something that I didn't do with : get some quality sleep time in. If I learned one thing from , it will leave you physically and emotionally drained just when you need to be on top of the game.
BTW...you and Jason are doing a great job keeping us up to date on the latest model runs. Thanks to both of you for doing such a great job. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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