javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The curve to the N may have something to do with a ULL out to W of The ULL was expected to continue moving at the same rate as to the W.Since last night is has not moved.The distance between the the leading edges of each system is 600 miles.Frances can either start the squeeze on the system like did our go over the top.The latter I think would accelerate alittle to the NW.If she chooses to squeeze the ULL she will slow down.See how the dynamics play out latter on today.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Actually since the listed Brevard County as the bullseye,
I 've felt a bit better, 1) they have rarely pegged it this far out.
2) Already this morning the bullseye has been moved South.
I posted the other day my gut tells me North of Ft Lauderdale and South of FT Pierce.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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That is what I was thinking, too.
Quote:
I posted the other day my gut tells me North of Ft Lauderdale and South of FT Pierce.
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SOFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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I agree with that gut feeling of yours....and unfortunately I am in Deerfield Beach..smack dab in the middle of that location.
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moi
Unregistered
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Coconut Creek here and begining to get nervous.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Please comment on how this report impacts Florida in terms of time of hurricane over any particular land area of Florida if the track verifies within a 65-70 miles range. Thanks
If the forecast is that accurate in terms of distances then the timing is within an hour or two I would bet also
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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RBL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
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Something to look:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Regards
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This storm makes gaston look like a drizzle. That's one very strong storm!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
This storm makes gaston look like a drizzle. That's one very strong storm!
At least Gaston wasn't a blow-hard also. ...and it might be playing soon in a town near you....
BTW, does anyone know if that DAM held last night, the one that was pouring water over the spillway last evening in Va I think it was?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Tue Aug 31 2004 12:56 PM)
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Dam apparently held .. although three died from drowning in two seperate incidents 
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I hope everyone in South Florida doesn't wait for the High in the Atlantic to open a hole for 24 hours before landfall. It certainly could happen - and might. But, what if it doesn't? Kind of like being under water with a 10 ton rock on your head holding you down and praying it moves so you can get up to get air.
I found the statistically significant Herbert's Box info quite fearful for South Florida. 90% +/- accuracy is a pretty high number. That should be enough warning for all of us (as we all haul butt out of Florida praying this is the one out of 10 'cain that misses us).
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delta
Unregistered
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The HPC 7 day forcast loop !
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Good morning all: another exciting day and the Hurricane of the moment continues west at 15mph...which should keep us interested...
I don't have the time for this but having lived through Donna in 1960 I wonder why the historic trac of that significant storm and this one are not being compared? The timing and the path are similar. The question that needs to be researched if possible is what if any similarity in synoptic features that influenced the trac of Donna exist in the current pattern
Can any one point to any graphic data that can quickly be accessed so we can look at that? This is not just an idle curiosity...
The influence of the ULL to the west on the trac of cannot be under estimated. It has not retreated wes as much as the storm has advanced west and this can account for the and stall over the Bahamas...
In my opinion if the ULL gets out of the way will stay on a pathe slightly West of WNW into the gulf and a Donna like turn will occur as the trough approaches.
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doug
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tbaje
Unregistered
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i stubbled on this website while looking for hurricane info. As a survivor of Andrew this one is way to close for comfort. Good discussions here and i will be tuning in during the day
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Donna's track:
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/donna.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Dee
Unregistered
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Hey Doug,
I'm in Bradenton, been here almost 1 year. I have to ask what do think the impact here on the west side of the state will be if hits the east then moves out over the gulf? I realize it is early, but was a little too close for comfort and it effected people as far out as Orlando.
Thanks!
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CONCERNEDINMIAMI
Unregistered
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That DOnna graphic looks awfully similar to --- I'm not convinced this storm is going to nudge as far north or "left of S. Fla" as some models want it too. The "weakness" in the high seems almost impossible if deepens and creates herself a stronger upper ridge? Any thoughts ??
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hello:
If you could please provide this information-
Where was Donna at 20 degrees North and 60 degrees west ? (North of it, south of it?)
Thanks.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Another Donna track:
http://wxpaos09.colorado.edu/hurricanes/GreatStorms/Donna1960/track.htm
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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According to this gif (hard to read), it appears she was at about 63.5 when she hit 20. Very comparable IMO.
http://www.keyshistory.org/HurrD-Chart.jpg
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