Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
i konw a lot of the attention will focus on the possible FL landfall from , or perhaps a more general SE US landfall, and i would expect that to be honest. However, dont forget that will be tracking along the Bahamas before it gets to the US! These islands are small, low, and less able to withstand such a storm. These islands should really be preparing now and getting as geared up as possible, as looks to strengthen, and sweep the majority of the islands too. Its not just a community that could become isolated when tears through, no, rather the whole island(s) - as if they arent isolated enough!
Of course, looks set to hammer at least part of the US SE coast, and it is looking increasingly likely that it will be a FL coast event. More people are here in more concentrated numbers than in the Bahamas, and more potential for damage, devastation, and loss of life!
Hermine also loks set to give parts of Mass a glancing blow, but nothing too serious.
Interestingly too, Gaston has maintained itself as a seperate entity, and looks as if he will move back over the Atlantic waters tonight. Could be something else worth watching too.
Kind regards as always.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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floyd was turned by a trof dug into the southeast. there will be no trof this year.
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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no good news today.
frances is intensifying today.. eyewall contraction cycles and less subsidence/vertical shear to fend off.. giving it a nudge back to the way it was when recon found it. ought to be back to cat 4 tomorrow. moving forward a little faster.. expected.
i'm going to keep my landfall window between palm beach and beaufort.. with emphasis between daytona and brunswick.. as a 3/4 on late saturday/early sunday.. still not going to pinpoint.. not until tomorrow afternoon at earliest.
still seeing the dynamics for the stair-step and terminal leftward bend.
other stuff in the basin too.. nowhere near as scary, but there. gaston has maintained an excellent system aloft, and should reintensify to a tropical storm when it moves offshore tonight. the binary interaction i was expecting with what became hermine is in the end happening in a manner.. the lower pressure of hermine has probably helped guide gaston harder to the right than previously forecast. should trace NE as a weak tropical storm (waters too cool to reintensify much).. and pass a little south of nantucket tomorrow night.
hermine shot out ahead of its today and is barreling northward to an AM landfall in eastern new england.. likely a nonconvective or convection-removed depression at the time.. small chance it's a weak tropical storm. my take is didn't need the t.s. warnings after all.
97L (should be 99L.. 97L was gaston) in the eastern atlantic near the cape verde islands.. has a well defined low with some convection. it is probably a tropical depression.. and should be within a couple of days. it's circulation envelope extends westward quite a bit and has another maxima near 33w.
there is a surface disturbance developing in the at 9n/38w.. models havent picked up on it yet.. but this may turn into something too.. hard to say based on it's low latitude the imminent closure of 97L.
globals still hinting at a low development south of the miss. delta over the next couple of days. surface convergence beneath a weak upper shortwave ridge is the setup here. would probably move little at first if it actually develops, then maybe turn nw if a more defined low were to form. still hypothetical and low probability.
the next wave slated to emerge also has globals trying to develop it. september should start out like august ended.
and that's the very long story of the tropics. hell of a lot going on. hope the site can handle all the traffic that's going to be on.
HF 2226z30august
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Wonder why the is not saying a turn north while still offshore?
I think she'll turn north but not until it bumps into the big sandpile called Florida.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Not looking so great for Florida right now. I kind of like to focus in the on the Orlando area because I take residence there. I expect the majority of Florida to get a rather nasty taste of due to its large size-I can't rule out hurricane force winds extending outward by 110-120 miles by the time the storm nears the Bahamas. I can feel this one coming on already. looks remarkable on satellite images this evening.
The track looks pretty darn good to me at this point. Barring any MAJOR changes, you can pretty much expect tweaks in the track forecast throughout the next few days. Another scary point-NHC stated in the 5 PM discussion that the intensity forecast could be "conservative".
Good grief...
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Nothing to concentrate on at the moment, save for . Everything else takes a back seat...kinda like triage. When you have a cat 4-5 barreling in on the U.S. mainland, who cares about a wave tomorrow?...
I still think the hurricane will stay generally west...a little north to that. Not sure about the latitude HankFrank is guessing on..though his expertise is miles above mine. I go on hunches based on what I am seeing, and reading....he goes on sound scientific principles...
so keeping things simple....
Miami, as a cat 4-5...then onto Mobile for more Insurance company walloping action...
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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rickonboat, you'd be surprised how many hunches i go on. i'm staying right of the official because with stronger storms the forecast error usually goes that way.. especially when a gently curving path for several days is given.
and yeah i know not many people care about what else is going on in the basin when a bigun has its sights on the u.s... but i have a hunch that in a few days one or two of the features i mentioned will matter to somebody.
HF 2243z30august
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Well the models are in great agreement so far into the Bahamas .Yikes....i figure at the very least we will get hurricane force winds here in Ft. Lauderdale. I could be wrong. Well if the storm has to come here or this area I have a couple of requests. 1) come during the day: I would at least like to watch the destruction while I am fortified in my house. 2) don't take my roof please: I know that is a silly request from a Cat 4/5 storm but what the heck. 3) please don't stay around too long: we have to clean up your mess!
Good luck everyone in the Bahamas and SE Florida the next couple of days during your supply shopping spree and your sweat filled shutter hanging party. Now where are the keys to the Florida Shield generator...darn...i knew i forgot something this year.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Nothing to concentrate on at the moment, save for . Everything else takes a back seat
Not everyone on these boards lives below the mason-dixon line...while I don't expect Gaston do reform into anything more than perhaps a weak TS, it is spawning at last count, 9 tornadoes in VA, and could spell some real flooding troubles for the Delmarva, then Joisey, LI and the New England colonies. Sure, is occupying all of our minds (mine included), but don't say there's nothing going on. As HF opined a few posts earlier, there is the potential for a Fujiwara-type interaction between Hermine & Gaston, albeit over too-cool-to-support-development SSTs, but still, huge flooding could be a problem.
That being said, I'm not going to pick a potential bullseye until Wednesday at the earliest, though my original call for Hattaras is probably going to be a crow munching spectacular. Not that I haven't had those before. One thing I do believe will happen, no matter where eventually landfalls, is that this will recurve and spell potential trouble for the entire east coast. I do not think for one moment that this will cross the peninsula and get into the gulf. In fact, I'm still not 100% certain of a FL landfall, although there is not one shred of evidence to dictate anything to the contrary. Just a gut hunch I get with these CV longtrackers. I've been proven wrong many times before, so it's no big deal. We'll know with a fairly confident certainty, on Wednesday. As it is, everyone from Key West to Portland ME needs to keep an eye on this. Anyone in the space coast region especially, but everyone.
Then we've got what should be 99L (97L) to think about, plus some possible homegrown mischief in the GOM, but those are for the future. Gaston...Hermine...still making some mischief for some.
Let's hope the site can handle the hits come later on in the week....
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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IF, and only IF...there were no ...all the other mischief would occupy our minds. That is why I mentioned triage. Sorry if I offended anyone being impacted or is currently suffering with the other players out there...
however, nuttin quite like the feeling of taking it on the chin via a cat 4-5....
they tend to cause CATASTROPHIC damage...
I went through a strong 3.....
a 4-5 will be a nightmare...sorry for Miami....they better get ready....
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Any kind of action in the Orlando/Kissimmee region would a nightmare as many are still without roofs and have totaled out yards.. our overall resistance in the state is down.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As LI phil said the remmants of Gaston could produce very intense downpours, there is a cold front to our east that will generate convection cell thunderstorms and rain, cold fronts and tropical mositure just don't work, like electric and water. Also the threat for tornados is still possibly as moves into the penisula and LI. We still have time for , lets focus on the current systems impacting our lives.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Jason234 (Mon Aug 30 2004 11:06 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Watching in Miami. Don't like the trends. (Who in Florida would?) Don't like surface analysis for 72 hours out.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
Don't like wording in last discussion.
Said before.. if it doesnt veer nnw along the coast would be a big problem for WPB/melbourne.
That being said...for the first time on local news I saw a 3rd scenario where the high is strong as in 72 hour pic and it pushes storm through straits and north coast of cuba. First time Ive seen anyone give that one.
As much as I said WPB/melbourne.. my confidence in my own words is real low
Think we have surprises in store from and not good ones.
Hope I'm wrong.
Hear all the holding to SC line but... its getting harder and harder to see how its going to get up there from this vantage tonight after it went so far west so fast and there won't be much of a path from Gaston/Hermine left in 3 says.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Quote:
I think she'll turn north but not until it bumps into the big sandpile called Florida.
Scary thought.. I really hope we don't see her come ashore, hook right, and continue right up the middle of the state.
If I read your message correctly, are you suggesting a more northery turn like the current UKMet model suggests?
A Cat3 with Tampa/St. Pete on the west side as she moves to the Gulf could cause major flooding problem here. I haven't seen any models suggesting the impact of such a case - just general models showing a cain coming in off the Gulf. But Josephine in 1996 (5.5' surge) is one I remember with a ton of flooding. I would guess could easily top 5.5' of surge here.
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AphCane04
Unregistered
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I don't see much of a path from Gaston right *now*, much less 3 days. I wouldn't say it won't go more northerly, but does it look like the hard right is going to be there?
I was skeptical about it at first, but the high seems to be really taking shape. I guess the major question now is, will it build a little further west, and put Miami/Ft. Lauderdale under the gun?
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Well, as if Atlanta didn't have enough bad news today, Glenn Burns the meterologist from WSB-TV was saying at 6:55pm ET that was going to come on shore in C. Florida, roll up through Florida and South Ga and end up over Atlanta by late Sunday or early Monday.
TWC's cone at 730pm was showing that it could make landfall on the southern end near Miami on Saturday night and possibly Sunday evening if it hits in SC....
As Homer J Simpson says....D'Oh!
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
globals still hinting at a low development south of the miss. delta over the next couple of days.
HF -- can you point me to this?
Thanks!
Allison
there's a weak trough there, and convection blows up on it every afternoon just lately. eta has been developing a weak surface low along it for a couple of days and moving it ashore in lousiana.. but as there is no persistent convection development looks quite unlikely. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 31 2004 04:38 AM)
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Although several days out, it looks as though has her eyes on some type of Florida strike. There is not much I can see that will change that. After just having gone through , any hit from will probably spell major disaster to our state's main infrastructure. We still have mountains of storm debris...all of which could become "flying objects"...what an untimely mess...
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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There looks to be an ULL just NE of the yucatan. Could this have any effects on the ULL that ya'll have been talking about which would then effect ?
ShawS
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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That should say ShawnS on the above post
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