CocoaBeach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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If your up for some reading, you can get some good stuff from the San Juan hurricane statement. Covers everything going on in the northern islands, which happen to have this monster above them.
San Juan statement
Antigua airport dropped 3mb in a 4 hour period, St. Martin 3mb in a 5 hour period. TS effects possible for the islands, even at this distance, which is starting to close hourly.
Edited by joepub1 (Mon Aug 30 2004 07:54 PM)
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda
(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M
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Conditions at Aug 30, 2004 - 06:00 PM EDTAug 30, 2004 - 05:00 PM CDTAug 30, 2004 - 04:00 PM MDTAug 30, 2004 - 03:00 PM PDTAug 30, 2004 - 02:00 PM ADTAug 30, 2004 - 01:00 PM HDT
2004.08.30 2200 UTC
Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TAPA 302200Z 33010KT 9999 SCT020 BKN270 29/24 Q1011 SLT HZ
I think this station is about 180 miles away?
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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If you registered you could edit your own posts, and you could still post when they shut down unregistered posts during busy periods.
Bill
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Oh Heck...the problem I am now faced with is which direction to plan my evacuation? Everything else is falling together with boarding up and supplies. My landlord said he started searching for wood at 8am in Merritt Island and went as far north as Titusville and south to Melbourne with no wood or the snap ons left anywhere. Supplies are being held until they get a better handle on the hit area and then they will be shipping in the wood and such to those areas for boarding up. Thank goodness i still had my wood from floyd. I was planning on heading south west. Hotels are already booked going north, Ga, Alabama, already filling up. So....where do you go to get into the safest area?? Any ideas?
I urge everyone in the area, on the east coast, get ready now. You will certainly be doing yourselves and your families the best to figure on a hit, prepare for a hit, and if it does not happen, dance happily. Its only supplies, not lives.
God speed everyone.  
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Although several days out, it looks as though has her eyes on some type of Florida strike. There is not much I can see that will change that. After just having gone through , any hit from will probably spell major disaster to our state's main infrastructure. We still have mountains of storm debris...all of which could become "flying objects"...what an untimely mess...
I not only tend to agree, and sympothise, I also share it living on the East side of Orlando. I'd invite you to my place of shelter, but living in a mibile home, I don't expect it would do either of us much good. got 10 trailers, will likely clear the rest. My boss' home in S. Orlando stood up well, so I'm gonna honker down is his garage with my belongings and hope it keeps its' roof this time. We should physically survive, me and my cat, but I have a real feeling this will be a sellers market for anyone that has any places to stay left standing to sell. FEMA mentioned 8000 trailers to help the homeless from ...It had better have 3-4 times more ready to go after gets her shot. I hope it does NOT make it here, but I'd be deluding myself If I said I believe it won't. It hasn't happend yet, might not, but I will say I have my generator and batteries already in my likely new residence....moved them today 'cause they are too big and heavy to do at the last minute. This tin box survived the Eye of , but even a glancing blow from Francis might well be the preverbial straw. If the data on Wednesday looks anything like it does now, I'm outta here for thicker walls. Darned...we just got power back the other day too....shoot!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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35n83w
Unregistered
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If I were a forecaster at , I'd always pick the worst case scenario, warning the most people possible.
But, my guess for : turns north and mostly misses the US. I live in the mountains and I don't wanna see that blowhard up here! I hope I'm right....
If ya live in Florida and believe it's coming at ya... get ready. Godspeed. Tell everyone ya know... People get ready, for the cane's a'coming.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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There seems to be yet another eye replacement, as shown by the concentric eye, a brief period of weakening, then I predict some serious strenghtening tom, as it leaves behind the shear.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Much too early to make that deicision, unless you just head to some place like Kansas.
However I would not try and go South, because there are just so many people here that will need to get out if the track shifts left, and you will be caught up in the biggest evacuation in history. But given the current track, and possible shifts of that track, there is no state in the SE US with a coastline that is 100% safe. Also SW of you is heading into the path, not a good place to try and find shelter.
I know this sounds kind of lame, but just chill out and wait a couple of days.
Bill
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ESTIMATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
Wow, coupled with an eyewall replacement cycle, we are gonna see some serious shtuff tomorrow.
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John C
Unregistered
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If you need plywood, there are plenty of candidate signs around. Come tomorrow if you know who lost the primary elections I don’t think they will mind if you clean up there signs. Just joking , better ask before you take! 
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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thought I would go back and look at how the handled five days out, and then when they actually nailed the right spot at the right time.
Unfortunately, did not have an advisory five days before it hit Port Charlotte, so I looked at their four day forcast. The forcasted it to be at 19 N 81.5 W, or approximately 350 miles south of Fort Myers, at 8 a.m. on Friday August 13.
per the closest advisory, the storm was actually at 25.2 N 82.8W.
On tuesday morning, the called for the hurricane to be in the middle of the gulf in five days. Finally, by Tuesday afternoon, was thought to hit Florida in the panhandle.
Finally, by Wednesday, the said in three days it would hit the west coast of Florida.
Now, here's my thoughts. The isn't kidding when it says its average error is 350 miles on five days out. is a tough analogy, because five days before landfall, it was just a depression and is a full-blown hurricane.
But the point of this excersise was to say that while it has Vero Beach in the bullseye now, a 350 mile error could put it in Cuba and miss the US all together. We just don't know.
I looked at Isabel when it became a 110 kt hurricane. The five-day forcast: 20N 63 W.
The actual five day location: 22.6 N 62.6 w. That's a lot closer.
They also kept Isabel at 125 knots. Actual windspeed: 140knts.
Edited by alan (Mon Aug 30 2004 08:19 PM)
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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oh great...however, based on the forcast intensity estimates...this is what we have been expecting...hope for something to appear that will push this storm out to sea...Florida just can't deal with this now...
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Post deleted by BillD
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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is the site failing to come up on anyone else's computer?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Don't want to get off topic here but that's true, I wouldn't even venture into the city today even, us (LI Phil and me) are very worried about the fate of the city. I bet there's so much plywood that you could build a block full of plywood houses, just joking they'll keep them so they can stick up on their lawns, I bet. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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All 3 major W.P.B. tv stations have gone to updates on every hour on the hour. Almost everyone in my neighborhood was cutting tree branches down this evening to put out in tomorrow's trash pickup. The stores are starting to get crazy. People went to work this morning seeing the track shift eastward over the Atlantic and came home tonight seeing it bend back towards them. One station this morning even went as far as saying it looks much better this morning than it did yesterday, looks like we will be lucky. I guess they are already eating their crow within 12 hours of that statement. Way too early to tell people stuff like that.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Oh Heck...the problem I am now faced with is which direction to plan my evacuation?
In the increasingly likely event that almost any of the 'somewhere in Florida' tracks including the current forecast pan out, plus or minus a hundred miles, this just in:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
That means essentially the entire state will see hurricane force winds...this babe is 140 miles across in the windy zone and 280 miles in the breezy zone. If it does hit MLB, Orlando and Tampa will already both be experiencing hurricane winds and points south to about FLL would probably feel them also. A miss to the East of a hundred miles would still allow ORL and JAX to get 74+ winds not to mention the 'worlds most famos beach', the oldest city in the US (they say) and of course, the home of the shuttle. Someone today at work said 'that is a bit negative isn't it Mr. C.' I said, no, it's not negative, I'm positive the brown muschey stuff is gonna hit the fan, and we don't even need the fan.
Someone asked a bit ago, "Where can I evacuate to?". I'm sorry, it really looks like unless you have friends in Texas, you could have stuck to your posterior from NY to LA depending on track. There really isn't a good answer except to start looking now for high ground, away from water and in a building with good construction and thick walls, have plenty of candles and non-perishable food on hand (and tied down), and most of all, several gallons of drinkable water per person. Water, drinking water, may be the most valuable item after shelter. Medicine, pet food, clothing and blankets could come in handy for a lot of people within 50-100 miles of wherever it comes ashore. Oy yeah, and pray, if you believe it will help, that no tornados touch your hiding hole. ... and do it yesterday, not waiting till everything is sold out. Oh, and don't forget the stinkin' can opener!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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All you Floridians should watch out for other people, right now people are on there wits ends I bet, if I where you I would leave the state, move to upstate New York and never have to worry about these things again, but then again you aren't me. Be prepared, and if this Hurricane becomes a CAT 5, what happened today with the media hype will become nothing more than a minor nuisance.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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gofin13
Unregistered
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The Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 180 miles,that's what the latest advisory said ,that's not good!
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