MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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5PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahama islands.
Frances models trended to the right earlier today but went back left later on. And so did the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. The current official track takes it onshore near the space coast midday Saturday. Models still may vary, and I still think we'll have a better idea by tomorrow night. But that's how things stand as of now.
A full update will come later this evening.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Gaston has reformed as it moved off the Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula last night, overland it dumped flooding rains over portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. It's not expected to affect land again.
Hermine has become after touching the coast of Massachusetts. There is also a tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic that may spawn Tropical Depression 9 later in the week.
Everyone wants to know about now Category 4 again .
Right now it is passing uncomfortably close to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Radar from San Juan) But it will stay north and only bring moderate winds approaching tropical storm strength to the most extreme northern islands.
But what are the model trends this morning? Back to the right a bit. Will the ridge break down enough for it to recurve to miss Florida or not? Or will it strengthen and push it through into the gulf? The middle ground would put it into Florida along where the Hurricane Center is predicting, but the error at that far out could allow for other scenarios. Not much new today on that front, but the trend to the right again is interesting.
It's still too early to say where it will affect, and how strong it may be when it gets there. If the National Hurricane Center track holds, it isn't good for Florida. But I think it will be adjusted some as the time goes along. We'll know more sometime late Wednesday I believe. Regardless, getting plans together along the coast isn't a bad idea.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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So from reading this thread, is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
So from reading this thread, is going either into the GOM or to the Carolinas??????????????????
No those are the extremes, more likely its somewhere in the middle. The key is to see where the trend goes and persistance.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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That's about right. Which means that unfortunately it looks like someone will feel the full impact of this storm. Based on the trends of the season to date, I would expect a turn before FL and a direct hit on the SC coast.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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When do the new models come out?
Should have added to the previous post that though the seasonal trend would suggest SC, I believe it will hit FL. Possibly even entering near Miami and riding up the state moving into GA.
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tbaje
Unregistered
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my worst fear.... Miami... 
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Alright, I guess that was a bit gruff, but your feeling seems to be that the track will shift to the right. I don't know about that. The shifted left from 0Z to 6Z. Not a lot, but some, bringing the center dangerously close to the central Florida coast. 12 & 18 Z will be interesting. I have to make some quick decisions based on these runs down here in Palm Bay. Getting a bit antsey 
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Has anyone heard that there was problems with the data last night ? Doesnt the UKMET, , and possibly the Canadian modell get fed the same data ? I am not a model expert, but have been heariing there was issues with the data input last night at least for the (and of course the models that initialize off that).
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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AVN forecasting to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)
CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach
GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph
JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of and form
UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)
of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me
as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I haven't heard that, and frankly if there were init problems, they likely would have been mentioned in the 5am discussion, or in this or this discussion from /HPC.
Very good quote here which answers some questions from eariler....
"THE BIG QUESTION MARK OF THE PD IS THE TRACK OF HRCN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE THIS PD. THE MODEL HAVE QUITE AN ARRAY OF
SOLNS. THE 00Z ...GFDL...AND MEAN HAVE SHIFTED THEIR
TRACKS MORE TO THE RIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS ON DAY
5/SUN TO DAY 6/MON WHILE THE 00Z CAN GLOB AND ALONG WITH
THE 30/12Z TAKE THE SYS NWWD ONCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SERN FL
AROUND DAY 4/SAT. THE UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT
WITH ITS TRACK...BUT IT STILL TAKES INTO FL AROUND MLB ON
DAY 4/SAT...WHICH IS THE CLOSEST OP MODEL TO THE TRACK.
WITH MAINLY THE MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7"
Notice the forecaster says that the models got the dropsonde data and the other (non-US) models didn't.
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Jason Kelley
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tbaje
Unregistered
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Quote:
AVN forecasting to take a Floyd path and on Monday has it hitting NC as a strong Cat III; also brings 97L to by then (this scenario brings minimal hurricane winds to my area on Sunday)
that plus the Herbert Box factor..... brace miami, brace
CMC forecasts Cat IV landfall at West Palm Beach
GFDL forecasts a Floyd turn, bringing 50-60 mhp winds to my area on Saturday, and Landfalling Sunday in South Carolina at 110-115 mph
JMA forecasts Cat IV landfall for Miami on Sunday
still forecasts something to break off to the east of and form
UKMET forecasts direct hit on Cape Canaveral as Cat IV on Saturday (the last time that happened was 1926)
of these, 2 turn it north, 2 take it into south Florida, and one takes it over me
as Ive said with other storms, the AVN and seem to be the most accurate, so I am going to have to keep my turn to the north forecast
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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so the model with the biggest turn is the one with the latest data?
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It seems to me that for time being extrapolation points will give you a better run than the models at least in the short term(12>18hrs).She seems to be on a basic W movement just a few degrees N not much.
as of 13:45 @20.1N and 64.0W still S of models see how the ULL out front of impacts her movement.
Edited by javlin (Tue Aug 31 2004 02:34 PM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12Z and 18Z runs., like they did yesterday.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
Thanks Jason, its just some meteorolgists in SE Florida are saying their may have been issues. It will be interesting to see if those models trend to the left again in the 12Z and 18Z runs., like they did yesterday.
ULL discussion for Miami NWS. Its moving to the west folks.
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE
FL COAST SW THROUGH EAST CNTRL FL...ACROSS LAKE OKEE AND INTO THE SW
GULF...ALBEIT SUBTLE...WITH 88D AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG IT OFF THE NE FL AND SW FL COASTS. AT THE
UPR LVLS...MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS UPR LVL LOW ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACKS WEST. 12Z SNDG PWAT...WHICH IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY GPSMET RETRIEVALS IS RUNNING AROUND 1.9 TO 2 INCHES
THIS MORNING. THIS IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LAYER WEST OF THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SE AROUND 5
KNOTS PER 12Z SNDG...AND UPR LVL FEATURE TRACKING WEST...LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR FOR TODAY
AND JUST INLAND OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST. THIS GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE FCST SO PLAN NO CHANGES. 12Z CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
CAME UP WITH A CAPE OF 4180..MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON INLAND HIGHS OF
AROUND 92...LI OF -8...AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF AROUND 24. SO TODAY
STORMS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF ONE OR BEING STRONGER
THAN USUAL WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL...PARTICULARLY INLAND.
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melissa
Unregistered
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What does that all mean?
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JB is still sticking to his guns for a NC hit...that's great news for Floridians if it pans out. Last week, before this was a TD even, I said "I smell Hattaras." I just get a feeling for these long-tracking CV storms.
Let's see what says at 11:00 (may even be out already). More later.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That's interesting, Jason. Why would only one model get the data input and not the others? It would seem the other way around. Of course, I don't work for so I don't know how that works. Obviously. 
So, if all the other models get this data and they all begin turning it to the right, I guess we could see a light at the end of the Florida tunnel. OR if the models get the data and still keep it on its current track, we can keep on preparing ourselves for a intense storm. Which we should be doing anyway.
One more question: will that stationary front in the SE have anything to do with ' path? Just curious.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
What does that all mean?
There has ben some thought that the ULL if it persists it could drive the storm more to the N but if it moves out that feature will have little to no effect on the track. Bottom line is florida is going to need a weakness between the two highs to avoid landfall and that looks unlikely to me. west palm to jacksonville until further notice
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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To help those of us (ok… me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
Assumptions
1) remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on Advisory 26A
I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.
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