Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
orlando heres one of many I use...
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
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For JUst me ...
This hurricane is a major event. It can possibly be worse than . Florida will not be a pleasant place to be before/during/ or after this storm.
Me? I would tell them most definately not to come.
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Orlando
Unregistered
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Thanks a lot! That helps to understand what you all are talking about these models. 
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I also mention that couple days ago Doug, good obs. I been tracking on radar the last 4 hours and after a 2 hour wobble wnw then last 90 min has shown more w. I would suspect unless another jog occurs that it will be near 20.5N and 66w. Still moving w but wnw should happen this evening,(if not,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,what even say it!!) LOL.
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother? 
What you *ARE* good at is exhibiting a bit of 'horse-sense' at times. You draw the 'alarmists' and the 'knowledgable' together when you ask questions and make observations...keep it going!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb,
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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meaning?
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 311907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1907Z
B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N
65 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 50 KT
E. 226 DEG 084 NM
F. 323 DEG 123 KT
G. 238 DEG 011 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 13 C/ 3074 M
J. 24 C/ 3057 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/07
O. .1 /2 NM
P. AF985 1006A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.
pressure down....also....noaa reported small hail too...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> that is as of 5pm eastern,,,,recon shows pressure is down to 940mb
Not sure what you are referring to scottsvb...it's 3:35 here in the Eastern time zone. Is that what will show up in the 5:00 TWD? Could you please explain a bit more...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Scott, not to be offensive, but the 18Z models aren't out yet to my knowledge, particularly the . Correct me if I'm wrong here. Where are your projections for to Land?? Think its still a south/central florida event or north Florida//North.
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RBL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
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Orlado,
This a good link where have all toghether:
http://www.net-waves.com/weather/td06.php
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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What interests me about this feature is that if the ULL erodes and elongates out to the SW as it seems to be doing , that could actually reinforce the ridge or build a secondary ridge in its wake that would certainly influence the storm's intensity and direction.
I'm not a scientist and this is just an opinion, but if this gets out of the way, I think could stay south of the cyrrent model trend.
That's why we have to wait and see what shakes out tomorro, IMO.
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doug
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.
That's because Mike is jumping through hoops to keep it up and running. Everyone on this board owes Mike an incredible debt of gratitude. Let's hope she stays up...
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 07:47 PM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Yes Phil, around that coor by 5pm, and yes steve the tropical models been out for 2 hours. Such as LBAR, BAMMs models.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Dont know exact landfall, I wont have a good idea till after the 12Z models come out weds, but still even then, things can change.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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between last vortex and this on.e... she gained about 1m bigger eye....and pressure dropped... also it apears that from nw to ne and to se side winds are above 110mph!!!!
she may become a cat 5 overnight
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I know that this is a little OT but is Stacy doing the 5pm update ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Yes he does......................and if this becomes a pay site, count me in as it is not cheap to run something like this. Redbird
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Tomorrow is the make or break day...been saying that all along as have others. We won't know for sure even then, but with all the empirical and other data, climo & even eyesight (plus all the models), we will probably be able to guestimate a landfall location within 100-200 miles...strength will be much tougher to predict. Whereever it does decide to go ashore, though, we better hope it happens at low tide, because we had a full moon last night and tides will still be a bit higher than normal at landfall.
Everyone should probably take a big break from tracking over the next 12-24 hours and catch up on sleep. Doesn't appear too many of us will be getting much of that come Thursday and onward...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Mike and the admins...i just want to say that this site continues to have good performance compared to S2K...i imagine that will change rather soon though.
I agree this site is super. Why are you saying 'change rather soon'?
Also, because this hurricane and it's effects are so important to so many people, and given the links here (and elsewhere) have and may continue to go down, I think it would be prudent for each member here to have an alternate site or two as a backup. If FLHurricane were to go down or be unreachable, where is the best alternate that gives the kind of data and expertise we see here. Certainly, the site, but it doesn't tell us much about either the why or the alternatives. What URL's would you contribute for backup purposes? I hope this site does NOT go down, but I also hope my power doesn't get cut as this storm affects this area, but both events are likely....I know about generators and batteries, but what about good backups for this site IF needed. Lives could be affected by haveing good alternatives as this storm gets closer to whomever, S, Central or N, whomever ultimately gets the 'prize' of a visit.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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