Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Check out updated track....across Brevard county!! 5 PM weather underground....can this be right....is only 4:30!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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This is an email I received around 2 pm, I hope he's not right for my sake.
It looks to me that many Meteorologists and the are being led around by the daily changes in the model. In the past 24 hours the /TPC has moved the Florida landfall northward to West Palm Beach, then Melbourne and now Jacksonville. I can't say I ever remember a direct strike to Jacksonville or even Savannah for that matter. The most consistent model day to day has been the which forecasts a Miami to Tampa Bay track.
I still think a CAT 4 SE Florida coast hurricane strike is our best bet, somewhere around a Miami-Fort Lauderdale window. However a Palm Beach landfall is possible. Why?
A factor for a more northerly landfall at Palm Beach may be that a piece of the front currently stationary over the deep SE may break away and linger. I considered this idea last week as a possible source of a home grown Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone. But his idea is not originally mine as it might apply to "Frances" but is certainly possible and important so I feel it important to mention it.
One thing that lingers in the back of mind though is this. What are the chances of a CAT 4 hurricane strike to both coasts of South Florida in one hurricane season? Or for that matter in 3 weeks.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike, not only are you a at *least* a fair to middlin' weather prognosticator, but your programming skills are quite evident.I know, before I retired to start teaching, I *was* a programmer for Lockheed Martin for many years... I recognize good work when I see it.
Having said that, you don't control the reliability of power, the backbone and the like, so like a generator backs up power, when needed, alternate sites are still a good idea, IHMO. I've been a fan of this site since you started about '95 or so, and keep coming back here, not because of 'hype' but because of performance value. Even if I have to use a backup, I'll be back, and I'll bet a lot of others have similar views. You needn't worry about competition, the service you offer is A-1 in my book. Keep up the good work!
I am a programmer, that's what I do for a living. Currently doing financial work, but have done programming ranging from Aerospace Engineering to PC Games. Although I'm working in Virginia currenly, I'm tying to get a job back in Florida though. 
There is an entire site redesign I've been working on most of the year with some help and I hoped to have it ready by now, but I think I'll tweak it some more (with experience from and ) and throw it up for next season.
is certainly a challenge, it's so easy to say "it'll go right" but every time I think it will, something else makes me doubt it.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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THAT is an awesome picture.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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I got a posse of kids too and all that goes with it. I have some experience with Floyd thru my dad who was out here on business than..............same scenario as now but again uncertainty as to what will happen.
I got hurricanitis or is it just tired of all my son's friends here?
Back on topic---------------when do you think we will more definitive answers?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Steve...you'll find out at 5pm. I imagine they get info and feed it in as fast as they can. Now, get outside and run a few laps.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Colleen, I have the new 5PM track map in my hand!!
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john03
Unregistered
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here' the mov file that goes with sat shot....i would recommend high-speed internet connection...and a mov player (windows media or quicktime player)
sat mov file
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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They've turned on the 1 minute rapid-scan GOES-12 imagery on and there's some really cool stuff coming out of it right now. Remember the little vortices we saw inside of Isabel last year? has 'em now too, about 4-5 depending on when you look. Don't recall the address, but it's from UWisc.
Cloud pattern got organized a bit faster than I thought, leading to an increase in strength. 5pm pressure is 939mb -- and for those interested, Lixion Avila is doing the 5pm. The storm is moving much further west and much faster than originally anticipated, meaning landfall is now in the 4 day window as opposed to near 5 days. 5pm brings the storm up to 130kt, then levels it off a bit to 115kt before landfall near St. Augustine in 96-108hr. The storm then moves NW to just east of Valdosta, GA.
The track is slowly bending more left...as the upper low to the west retrogrades further and weakens, as it is doing now, I think we'll see it come a bit back further to the west with time as well.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I have noticed a reliance on the . There seems to be a comfort level with it that other models do not give. However, I think they are trying to the best they can to make some sense out of the chaos.
It may be time to suggest a new slogan for Florida. Welcome to Florida! It will blow you away!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, they shifted it back a little to the left again. Yikes.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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Off-topic:
Mike,
I can relate, I'm a web developer -- what languages are your forte?
Also, if you need help setting up a mirror for the site, or maybe just a place for a temp forum while this one is down, I have a dedicated server with over a terrabyte in bandwidth and tons of space (with domains). I'm using very little of my resources, 2% as it is.
Let me know if you're interested.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Sounds kind of like California Rocks! which it does quite often.
when we do start getting more frequent reports?
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Colleen, would I lie to you? Now I think I'll go outside and throw up 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Steve...what do you mean? You've never lied to me! I saw it, too.
Guys & Gals, you've been so good today...let's keep the chat room stuff in the other forums or PMs. Thanks!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 08:57 PM)
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Only kidding Colleen!! But they have the winds at 150 mph (130 knts), THen weakening to Cat3/4 before hitting. I think this may peak at 155/160...yikes.
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LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Avila's good, but he's no Stewart.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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So, basically the track as of 5pm today is pretty darned close to what it was at this time yesterday. I honestly believe that it is becoming more and more of a threat to Florida, and that if people have not begun to take some precautionary measures, now is the time to step up to the plate and do it. It won't be a waste of money, since we still have 4 months left in this season.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Hmm so a little to the South, and maybe a little more to the south this evening.. I think I am smelling trouble with a capital T.
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