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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #22229 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:22 PM

Quote:

To help those of us (ok… me) who have a hard time visualizing the forecast path, I have created the following image based on HPC 7 day loop: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Assumptions
1) Frances remains current size/strength
2) Wind envelope(s) based on NHC Advisory 26A

I can re-create these images any time for use here and remain open to suggestions and guidance.




What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The NRL comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: rickonboat]
      #22230 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:24 PM

Quote:

For the life of me, I see nothing that indicates all this carolina, georgia, top of florida stuff.

This hurricane will wreak unbelievable havoc on the bahamas. Sure hope those people, when they had the chance, left.

we get it, rick.. miami-mobile, nothing else possible. -HF




i am trying not to be an alarmist.. but i agree with you on this one.. Miami better pay attention.. ULL my bonny, this is continuing to the west.. all day i am looking for the north turn... waiting waiting.. the poor bahamas...

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: trinibaje]
      #22231 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:29 PM

well, i do agree that it's getting stronger this evening. eye more circular, latest IR show a solid red CDO ring that is also nearly symmetrical. if it's going to make a cat 5 run, it's going to do it soon.
HF 2329z31august


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: HanKFranK]
      #22232 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:34 PM

HF, I'm sure you've seen the current NHC discussion (excerpt):
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13. Frances REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR
IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE Frances WILL END UP. DATA FROM THE RECENT
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF
THE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT
OUTLIER...MOVING Frances NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR. THE
NOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER
CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND UKMET
HAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR
AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.

The qyestion is; Why do you suppose the NHC is favoring the left side after 72hrs? Is there some admission that it is moving West rapidly and not likely to be able to turn fast enough to follow the GFS or even the UKMET which has been doing a good job so far?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: trinibaje]
      #22233 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:35 PM

First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.

Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.

Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.

The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).

As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.

Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.

Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Ridge [Re: trinibaje]
      #22234 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:35 PM

Now I'm not going to be crazy and say Frances will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove Frances off her almost due west track. I say forget about the trough(s) because I just don't see them having an impact on her. I'm starting to think that the straites may not be out of the question. Now I'm sure I will be singing a different tune tomorrow but that is how I see it right now.


ShawnS


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ridge [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #22235 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:39 PM

>>> Now I'm not going to be crazy and say Frances will come to Texas, but I will say that IMO there will have to be a serious weakness in the ridge to shove Frances off her almost due west track.

Actually, you'd need the mother of all strong ridges (not weakening ones) to keep this on a line towards Texas (or wherever you're thinking). Don't discount the trofs either. LOL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: LI Phil]
      #22236 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:41 PM

Quote:

First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.

Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.

Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.

The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).

As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.

Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.

Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.




well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
I have the models figured out... [Re: trinibaje]
      #22237 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:43 PM

Basically every evening the models shift back to the south and west - S FL to C FL.... then in the morning when I get up they shift back to the north and east N Fl, GA, SC.... I think this has been going on for several days now... here is the key, once they can finally agree during both the morning and evening runs, then we have a true trend.... so if tomorrow in the morning expect the models to trend back to the north and east.... now if they don't ..... and they are still south and west.....then maybe they'll be on to something.... until then everyone on the east coast is sitting on a time bomb, I'm going to have carpal tunnel in my neck from all this back and forthness.... but the bottom line, this is one storm I want to track from a distance..... absolulely no wish casting from me... and I still am sticking with my Kennedy Space Center hit..... we had some TDY guys at Stennis today all pack up and head back to Kennedy to get the personal affairs in order....

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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: Ricreig]
      #22238 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM

This is an old discussion; from 5am this morning NOT 5PM. Please check and don't confuse people who are looking for current info.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Models [Re: Ricreig]
      #22239 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM

Quote:

What's the chance of your recomputing the new path/wind field. ...I, and my students have found this an easy way to see the effects of this storm than all of the other charts. The NRL comes next because it shows the wind fields. Even consider it a standing request if yo will.....Thanks in advance




No trouble. I will update this graphic as NHC changes their forecast. While several models have changed, NHC opted to not change their coordinates until a later Advisory (apparently they want to review a few more runs). Here is the 11am image (ADV27)



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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: trinibaje]
      #22240 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM

My THINKING was the furthest west would be central gulf coast. I KNOW SHE IS NOT COMING HERE!!!!!!! It is too late in the season for Texas to get a tropical system unless it is homegrown.


ShawnS


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Models [Re: Ricreig]
      #22241 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:45 PM

But there was a different path per NHC Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
Re: I have the models figured out... [Re: Frank P]
      #22242 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:47 PM

Yes, this is definitely not the storm to wishcast.

I admit that tropical storms can be exciting and all, some cleanup, no deaths (although, Gaston was another story).

But a hurricane, CAT III+ at landfall, would leave thousands homeless, and more than a dozen dead, with billions of dollars in damage. At this point it's not the question of IF it will hit the Southeast, it's a question of who would it hurt the LEAST if it were to hit.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #22243 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:50 PM

dude - great stuff for us laymen. Kudo's to you!

Now, if you could throw in storm surge and move Frances to a WPB to Sarasota senario, I'd love to see it.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: trinibaje]
      #22244 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:51 PM

Nope, not a stretch at all. Any prediction of landfall right now would be a SWAG. You can choose your word for S, but I'll use Silly Wild Ass Guess.

Even the NHC doesn't know, don't you think they would be telling us if they did? Has anyone read the recent discussions? There are still a lot of variables and unknowns, and we might not even have a good idea what is going to happen until Thursday. That is where a similarity with Andrew and Floyd comes into play, both of those were cliff hangers up until about two days out.

Bill


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: I have the models figured out... [Re: Shawn W.]
      #22245 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:52 PM

MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 2302Z

Huccicane Hunters sent this at 7:07 pm. If somebody already put this up, sorry in advance.


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: trinibaje]
      #22246 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:52 PM

Quote:

Quote:

First of all, it's y'all, not ya'll. Second, for long time readers and posters, rick has a long and storied history of seeing every storm at a CAT V strike on Mobile. However, for newbies, they might not get the joke and genuinely take the doomsday scenario to heart.

Sure, a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a blue moon, but it's getting to be tired...quite tired.

Is Miami out of the woods...by no means...if it's in the "cone" (NHC forecast error track), then it's in play, and Miami is certainly within the cone.

The NHC has NEVER been that far off in the past several years, and I somehow don't expect that to change over the next five days. Could it track much further west than currently forecasted? I suppose it could, but I wouldn't bet a crow sandwich on it (BTW, does anyone have any new recipies...).

As I've been saying (and others) for the past several days, we will not have any landfall certainty (within 100-200) miles until tomorrow at the earliest, so saying Miami CAT V is as good as throwing at a dartboard.

Take rick with a grain of salt. It was really funny at one time, but, in light of the seriousnes of this storm, it's not anymore.

Now, of course, rick is going to come back on and say, "No, No, it's heading west so it has to be Miami...then Mobile". If you live in Miami, you could be in for some serious weather...I just think, as do most rationale posters, it would be from the west side of the eyewall and outward.




well if the forcasts has it up near mid florida and the margin of error can be 200 miles.. miami is not such stretch now is it.. i am no weather expert but i know how far vero beach is from miami...




trinjabe you are correct. Miami is way in play. If anyone dounts this look at that 84 hour eta and look at the euro and so on and so on and look at the latest GFS coming back west as will the GFDL which is run on GFS. Miami is far from stretch but jacksonville isnt either.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Surge map [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #22248 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:54 PM

I've been looking for SLOSH (sea, lake, overland surges from hurricanes) models, off and on, for an hour or so. this may be one of the better ones.

I'll still try to find ones that show surge for CAT I, II, III etc., but as of yet, no luck.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: getting stronger ya'll [Re: jlauderdal]
      #22249 - Tue Aug 31 2004 07:55 PM

one thing i have learnt on my two days on here... METEROLOGY is like chiropractic medicine... (no disrespect to the weather men who keep us "prepared"

cool site!

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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