AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Also saw that "WNW" movement, though it still seems, and data supports, to be moving west. Movement from 2pm-8pm was .3 degrees north, and 1.3 degrees west. I've seen it "jog" north a few times, but I still think that's because it's feeling its way along that ridge.
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Check the Surf
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
But there was a different path per Update 28. Could you detail out day 7?
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Trying not to exceed 5 days in these graphics since the experienced folks indicate anything beyond 3 days is pretty much a guess.
I need at least 2 coordinates and wind speeds (in miles from the center) for each coordinate. With that info, I can plot and image this monster until it dissipates.
SkeetoBite <<< Definitely not a weather guy
Possibly you could limit the 5 day period to the Thursday-Sunday based upon the 5pm forecast data? Will your program take info from that source? Thanks for your efforts so far, they really do help 'tell the tale' to a lot of people used to watching the center red line and ignoring the widespread AREA being affected.
To avoid further diluting this thread, please PM me with your ideas or email here: frances@skeetobite.com
Thanks!
BTW - not all requests or ideas wil be possible, it takes 3 different programs to pull this off!
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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The Canadian also keeps offshore. The has wavered back and forth and at least in the 0831 00Z run was more or less in agrement with the , but now has moved back west and south. Most of the others are more in line with the forecast, with the exception of the A98E model which takes hard left across Cuba into the Caribbean.
As I said in another message, I am hoping to see the models settle down and come to a better consensus.
Bill
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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When I said it was too late for Texas I was more less drawing that conclusion from the past several years and the way the upper air patterns have changed during that time. One of the main things I have noticed is how these cool fronts seem to be aproaching our area earlier and earlier each year. Just this month I believe we have had 5 fronts pass through here and that is not the norm.If you go back the last few years I bet most of the systems that effected the Upper Texas Coast were from either the caribbean or gulf; not from systems crossing the entire atlantic. At this time of year there are too many fronts and troughs that come through for any long distant storms to make it.
ShawnS
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meto
Weather Guru
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bill been sayin that for 2 days. the conditions are totally diff. now than when floyd was around. farther south than floyd was. and much deeper trof was around back then.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
See this model spread....interesting that many models are now moving south toward South FL (YIKES) and Central FL again. (link is from S FL Water Mgmt):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
I created an animation with that (which is now automatically updated) http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?6
The models seem to be trending left. (But it's only been recording since 3PM today or so, it will be more useful tomorrow)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
What I find unnerving about this model run is the tendency for a number of them to turn the storm more WESTERLY when just offshore of Florida. That differs from the official track of turning even more N.
--Lou
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Don't the ridges seem to be much larger than normal this year?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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Yes, that was reported in the 8:00 advisory:
FRANCES SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15
MPH...
Sorry, didn't have an english version handy, but that is what it says WNW :-)
Bill
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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That is VERY cool Mike. I can't wait to see that all day tomorrow...Rec...yeah i notice that too
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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There seems to be a lot of posts here, it's really slowing my computer down when I open this forum, could you open a new storm forum about the same topic?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I was really surprised when I ran the , but then, I am watching the anticipated path from change twice a day, too.
This would be more interesting if it wasn't such a monster storm. Just moved from Florida about 6 months ago.
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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Mike,
That IS really cool. I've been playing the models in my head, this is a much eaiser to use visual tool. Particularly since the other way requires I remember more than my aging brain can handle 
Bill
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Interesting plots Justin as two of the models, if extrapolated, could take into the GOM, which we DO NOT want this thing to make a SECOND landfall anywhere.... once will be more than enough...... but they are only models .....
I think is still basically on track, she was expected to begin a WNW motion and so she has... I guess the next big thing to look for is will she maintain current speed or start to slow down... fast mover more southerly, starts to slow may cause her to move more polar...
Phil, as all the moderators have a tough job... even though this is off topic I want to speak my piece, y'all can delete if you want.... But I have seen this board go absolutely crazy during several past years when majors threatened the SE coast, and up until the past couple of hours I though the majority of posts have been just outstanding regarding the posts on .... everyone one contributes, whether you are a pro, or just a novice asking a question, or just a retarded amateur weather freak like myself, we all add to the value of the process... I feel like most of the posters here are my friends, even though I have never met any, and its OK to disagree, that's what makes this board to interesting... .this board play a critical need to many of us that find ourselves in harms way... I know this because during these events when the board goes out of service, I feel like a junkie without a fix .... cudos to Mike for making this available to all of us... nuff said...
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
[
The models seem to be trending left. (But it's only been recording since 3PM today or so, it will be more useful tomorrow)
Yes, but as you noted earlier, in the morning, left, in the afternoon, right...or was it the other way around,? Anyway, it is a lot like a windshield washer.... when they stop moving, either the storm is over, or we know where NOT to be this weekend
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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They say WNW and I think had it around 280 or 285. True WNW is 292.5 if my memory serves me right is true WNW. So it's somewhere between WNW and W (north of due west somewhere). An interesting graphic tonight is hurricane alley's AMS Run is setting the stage for an East Florida landfall. Someone above mentioned convergence of the models, well it doesn't get any more harmonically converged than that. I'm still not giving up on my southern NC call, but my call is definitely at a 4th down and 35 point. Bottom line here is the destruction that would go along with a strong III or IV landfall in east Florida. And a storm running up on an angle (rather than crossing) is goint to take out more than one area. The situation is getting more grave by the hour. With winds up to 140, weakening is all relative. Suppose she comes down to 125 or whatever (not very reassuring is it?).
Dubious by his absence is Joe B. His last update was at 12:15. He mentioned lack of sleep then, but I would expect him to put something out in the near future. He was originally Outer Banks or more north from last week. He has continuously acknowledged that he is the outlier forecast, but he just doesn't see the setup to foster what is going on. Frankly, I didn't either. But that's a real moot point if the ridge holds or builds stronger overtop.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Where did this XTRAP model come from and why does it exist? I mean come on this thing has had coming all the way across the gulf, towards Texas, it seems like the entire time. I've never even heard of this model and maybe for good reason.
ShawnS
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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0Z numercals are out, for the most part they show a Cape hit. There does seem to be a move to the WNW from NW late in the period, which follows after slows down a bit. This would open up the whole Florida coast to a direct hit, even above the Cape, which usually benifits from the way the coast falls back from the usual curve that these storms take. By direct hit, I mean one that has little interaction with the coast before the eye actually crosses the coast. When they scrape along the coast, they tend to weaken some. A late WNW move into the coast would be a most unwelcome event to add on to an already tough forecast that the coast above Melbourne finds itself in.
The city of Jacksonville is waiting until tomorrow before they make any plans for moving people around this weekend. They too are waiting for the models to get a little bit more together on where this may go. I'm looking at this from HF's point of view. Any forecast south of me is bad news, because I believe if the is going to miss, they'll miss right (north). I felt better being the prime target, to be honest. A hit as far south as Daytona could be real bad news for N FL, and this could be a slow hit as well, leaving the whole area ia a big mess for hours.
You almost have to live up here to understand what I mean when I say how strange this is to think that the area from Daytona north to the FL/GA boarder might take a Cat 3-4. We have escaped so often, even seeing JAX just as the final point of the 11AM forecast was kind of wild. Hope to skip most of the wild ride is going to give someone, but geeeeezz she's a big girl...... 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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And btw, it's the amount of people sharing the server, not the number of posts, that's slowing you down. Storm2k's been down off and on for 3 days due to similar circumstances.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Redbird
Unregistered
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I know it will be a long time before I want to eat spaghetti again after seeing all those runs today.
Are we confident now that the carolinas are not going to get hit?
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