Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the only way to get the actual motion trend is to look at the wide view--the images are spaced farther apart than on the floater
or you could block out every other image (by clicking the squares)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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not many loops but impressive if you have not viewed it yet..
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...e&itype=vis
still looks to me at about 280 to 285 degrees... from all the radar looks I taken of late
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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many thanks, colleen!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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One thing to rememver about tracking a center with radar is that the further away you are from the radar, the higher in the storm you are sampling...for instance, at about 80 miles away you are looking at 10000 ft up in the storm...now, if the storm isn't perfectly upright, then as you scan up into the storm, it can appear to impart a motion that isn't a true motion because of that lean. Not saying that this is happening in this case, but be wary of tracking a storm center at range with radar.
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Jason Kelley
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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I just want to say that everyone in Florida needs to wait and watch to see what will happen. I love to track hurricane's I would never wish someone to lose life or belongings like our friends in Cent Fl have. I hope that that people prepare for the worst and pray for the best. Be prepared and keep cool I guess is what I am trying to say. I am in JAX and if it comes here then oh well, it does. "Nobody can change what will happen in life, they can only learn and accept." Be safe all...
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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colleen, does it look like it is getting stronger. looks like a classic cv hurricane. its barely moving north maybe .01 degree. mainly west as it has been.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Good point Jason as you can't see the LLC that far out using the PR radar loops, however, I always try to combine the radar presentation with sat pixs both IR and VIS (if available) in making a determination as to direction of system... untl recon tells me what's really going on.... I think using both systems (radar/sat pix) you can get about a 90% accuracy as to overall direction... IMO
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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looks to me like it is going a little north of west at the moment and the last couple of sat shots
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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twc was talking few minutes ago, maybe headed to cat.5 it looks im afraid the best it has . and it still moving mainly west over the last advisories.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I see it too
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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For about 2-3 frames its moving slightly North. I would want to see that for awhile before its a trend though. Anyway, just be prepared. People here in Southern Brevard are taking this very seriously. Generators, wood, water....Its going fast.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Wouldn't the pressure have to fall a good 22 mb for a cat 5 ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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If the current visible show, as I think it does, that it is about to cross 65 at approx 20.5N then it is to the right of the /GFDL numbers...( 20.5N/66.5W)...Food for thought.
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doug
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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The ke to this system is the influence of the high pressure ridge. The models had the ridge moving offshore, hence, allowing to turn more northerly. However, to my knowledge, that hasn't happened.
Forward motion appears the same too...so, the track will stay about the same. Could be a sweeping slow turn to the north, and not anything generally quick to pick up.
Wonder what the update will show as far as intensity. Huge layer of purple convection wrapping around the storm, with the eye getting more and more concentric. Storm is intensifying.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm still confused as to why the GOES Satellite doesn't have it outside the 20 box yet, but when you look at the Western Atlantic & Carib. satellite, it is! Another interesting thing I noticed: looking at the strike probablilities archive, the probs have gone UP for WPB instead of DOWN. You would think that with the new track it would have been the opposite.
Well, 5pm will be interesting. And yes, it looks like it's getting stronger. And bigger.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Brad
Unregistered
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Similar to Doug's comment, the center might be a few ticks of a degree to the right of the forecast track, but not a significant amount; certainly not enough to say that it's off of that track. So far, what little northward component to the motion exists is consistent with the 's forecast.
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jbcmh81
Unregistered
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HMC, the pressure in hurricanes varies. For instance, in 1992, Andrew was a tropical storm with an amazingly high pressure of 1015mb. Local atmospheric pressures can affect tropical system pressures, and they can have higher than normal pressures but still have much higher wind speeds, and vice versa. In 1999, Floyd reached its max at 150mph with a minimum pressure of 921mb. Last year, when Isabell reached Cat 5 strength, it's mininum was 920, and at one point it was a Cat 5 with a pressure as high as 938mb. There are many factors involved, but you don't necessarily need another 22mb drop to see a Cat 5 with .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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will be helpful. Doesn't that come in at around 2 or so? Maybe that will give us some more brainfood.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The probs will go up because the system is getting closer-regardless of its path.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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A little further south, and the beautiful Virgin Islands would have suffered terrible damage, with Puerto Rico next. Suffice to say, a plane trip out of the Bahamas is in order. We watch this, and just a little thought, and we realize...."what would I be doing, if I had delayed...and a plane out of the Bahamas is not possible?"...I for one, would NOT want to be on a little Island with a cat 5 barreling down on me....
Sure hope it misses the islands..but don't see it...
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