jth
Storm Tracker
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Don't know what your looking at, but it wobbled north and has since wobbled back wsw a little. Still on a westerly course.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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If i am looking at the 12Z right, it looks like it shifted to the left near Cape Canaveral on Sunday and shooting up to SC/GA Border on Monday morning.
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Colleen A.
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West at 16mph...so it's sped up a little bit and now expected to make a turn later on today. I think they may be a little conservative with the winds.
I'm not afraid to get bashed. I'm a weather hobbiest, not an expert. Besides, I don't take it personally, I just take it as a "gentle learning curve".
Than I send Frank P. out to finish you off. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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CONCERNEDINMIAMI
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THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?
SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???
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LI Phil
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How long will it take for the 18Z to get all the data needed to put out a run?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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lois..
Unregistered
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Thanks first off for all your help here.
First.. why isn't Miami a 9 on probs and WPB say a 12?
Why are they both the same if the storm is supposed to come in up the coast at a higher angle? That sort of makes me wonder.
Second.. there is talk Miami could get stronger than TS winds which yesterday was mostly what "they" were saying.
Third..does anyone know here how the ensemble is going? Are they in line with a right hand turn or are they the same as yesterday? Does anyone know?
Fourth..Because as it strengthens it develops a high aloft which enhances the high pressure driving it west? Is possibly why it is moving faster now than it was before?
Fifth..can someone point out the where the weakness will be on Thursday late in the day?
thanks
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Kimster
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I don't believe that is necessarily true.
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john03
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THE 2 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB
so were does this put it in relation to model runs?
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Keith234
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There basing their forecast so heavily on the weakeness on the ridge because the ridge is governing the track of if it wasn't there or not so south this cane would have become a fish spinner, or set it's sights on a new target.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Steve
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I'm still with my southern North Carolina call from last week (yeah, that's south of the Outer Banks). I could be a tad far north to be sure.
Anyway, Ken Aucion (former Fox8 #2 Met know Chief at a station in Columbia, SC) also thinks has a great shot of attaining Cat V status. Bastardi think it can get down a slow as 925mb but if it follows his track, he thinks it's weakening at landfall.
He also did a nice expose of a SE flow this year which would tend to concentrate the rain and storms a certain way (e.g. Gulf wouldn't probably get hit from a long tracked storm but more likely from something developing out of the Caribbean or Gulf itself.
Steve
PS - A rickonboat post without a cat 5 call for Mobile is a day without vitamin c - serious time or not.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Colleen A.
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What is the NASA? Is that a model used by the ? Yesterday the stated that it was relying on the because of it's consistency. There's so much information coming in that has to be fed into all these models; let's not forget that they're input by human hands and errors can be made either way. I really don't think there's a "general consensus" with the models at this point.
Another interesting point: when was coming, almost every single model brought it in to Tampa Bay, except one. I think it was the or something like that...it brought it onshore at Ft. Myers.
It was right.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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31/1745 UTC 20.4N 65.0W T6.0/6.0
31/1745 UTC 40.1N 70.0W T2.5/2.5 GASTON
6.0/6.0
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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concernedinmiami
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I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the , making their own forecast -- in fact, they are launching Saturday's rocket today, and evacuating their premises after launch...they expect landfall in S. Fla and then a push upward through the state
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Keith234
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I can anwser your third question, your are right about the high being over the hurricane, it's the main driving force for the outflow of a hurricane. As the upper level high becomes stronger it pushes dry, subsiding air over the ridge, making it strengthen. Yes, that is a possibly reason for it moving faster than it was before, but it moving more west is somewhat likely. A hurricane is a cork in a river, it modifies it's existing surrondings, so what your saying could be a reason for the general westward movement.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Colleen A.
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Yes, it would be like a day without Vitamin C not to hear the "Mobile" hit once a day. Even a broken clock's right twice a day, huh? 
I can't even think of predicting where this storm is going to go. I don't think I ever have, come to think of it. I'm not that good at predicting any type of weather event, so why even bother? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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NASA also can not wait for a definate track. If the Atlas rocket for tonight does not get launched, they may have to do major stowage work to protect the payload. NASA will always have to take the most conservative route becuase of the time it takes them to secure operations. Therefore, NASA has to act before many other agencies. However, they still only use the same information that the has. They do not have anything different. They may choose to interpet differently for their own use.
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Wxwatcher2
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Quote:
THE NASA HAS PLACED LANDFALL AT WEST PALM BEACH, DISCOUNTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY THE IS RELYING SO HEAVILY ON THIS EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE?
SEEMS TO ME THE MODELS MAY BE RELYING ON HISTORICAL DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RECON???
Do you have the link to NASA???
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LI Phil
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>>> I meant NASA, they are forecasting the system separate and apart from the , making their own forecast
Is the NASA site available for the public (at least the weather forecast portion)? If so, can you post a link to it?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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mikeG
Unregistered
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noaa flights and sat and gps drops obs...a 1330utc 31 aug.... had most winds ne of center (strongest 22nm , ne of center) a very classical looking hurricane..... she did have a big area of cat 3 winds from north to south on east side extending far from center..(maybe by 35miles at most)..
*note this just reasearch data*
i am going over data coming in right now from NOAA3, (they done alot of drops today)..... think i saw a wind guest of or near 157
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Actually, they have not moved anything up. It is the same rocket that they have scrubbed the launch on for four consecutive since last Saturday. I doubt they get it off before they have to take it off the bad and remove the payload.
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