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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: Chad]
      #22436 - Wed Sep 01 2004 06:57 AM

On Monday we were told that basically here in Central Florida that we would know something more definitive about the storm on Wednesday. Are we now in the time frame where the information is going to be relatively accurate, yet? After a hurricane gets past a CAT 2 at the size of Frances, it really does not matter whether the track changes left or right by a few tenths, but it does matter whether or not the actual land fall occurrs on one day or another. This allows evacuators to know when to leave or whether to hunker down for the duration. ( roads, directions and so forth.) The question remains, are we in the time window now, that the information is more reliable?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22438 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:01 AM

Quote:

On Monday we were told that basically here in Central Florida that we would know something more definitive about the storm on Wednesday. Are we now in the time frame where the information is going to be relatively accurate, yet? After a hurricane gets past a CAT 2 at the size of Frances, it really does not matter whether the track changes left or right by a few tenths, but it does matter whether or not the actual land fall occurrs on one day or another. This allows evacuators to know when to leave or whether to hunker down for the duration. ( roads, directions and so forth.) The question remains, are we in the time window now, that the information is more reliable?




Yes confidence is starting to creep up, I'm going to wait until tonight to really figure, but look at the new article I just put up for more perspecitive on it.


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RockledgeRick
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Space Coast, FL 28.32N 80.73W
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22439 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:08 AM

Great question. Many of us in Brevard Co. have reservations in hotels in the Tampa area. I'm having some reservations about those reservations. IF the latest track holds, Tampa is not in the clear. It could still get Hurricane Force winds, but would be on the "good" side of the eye, and the windspeed should be on the lower end. As you said, those tiny wobbles 50 miles either way make a big diffeence!

--------------------
Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #22441 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:27 AM

I'd say that 100% confidence is reserved for when you're already in the storm.
Charley is a good recent example of the need to be wary until the last minute.

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: 5AM updates [Re: LadyStorm]
      #22446 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:44 AM

Quote:

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:) Do any other Floridians feel the same way?


Quote:

The NRL just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html





Crazy, frustrated, a bit scared, certainly concerned, but having gone through Camille and of course Charley, I also know that worrying about it is futile and contraproductive. You and I and our neighbors need now to take ACTION. I have, hope it's enough (it never is as I rememberwell). Consider your surroundings and the robustness of your shelter...if in doubt, MOVE NOW, Friday and certainly Saturday will be too late. If the course chages and Orlando and the rest of Central Florida is spared, then it was a nice visit wherever you went, if your home is destroyed, a real possibility with CAT IV winds, well, at least your visit saved your life. Don't take too much time, coastal evacuations may jam the roads so bad you have no exit path if you wait. I wish you and the rest of my neighbors FARE-THEE-WELL my friends.

I personally am evacuating my trailer even though well inland (East Orlando) and am moving my belongings I can fit in a few trunk-loads to a 'real house', but a direct hit with CAT III or higher may not be enough, but it won't be from not having tried. I've evacuated 3 times previously from this tin box home of mine, and so far always had something to come back to and always wondering if I shuldn't have avoided the sweat and hassle of the evacuation....Not this time, I'm not wondering and I hope I lose the bet, but this time, the effort ahead of time will have been worth it. I'll be willing to bet *this* time, it is a good decision.

Charley taught many of the NON-MAJOR STORM survivors like Andrew, Hugo, Camille and of course Donna sruvivors what even a CAT 1-II hurricane can really do to a major city. If there is a God, and I think there is, He sent Charley to us to 'educate' the millions of Floridians who haven't been exposed to a real tropical event before, and those that had become jaded or ignored storms in the past. Most, learned the lesson so this time, when it is really, really needed, many will help ensure their own and family survival.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: 5AM updates [Re: Chad]
      #22449 - Wed Sep 01 2004 07:52 AM

Quote:

Quote:

The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:)




You get used to it...I'm sure it will change much more before it's over.


I'm 62 on Saturday (some birthday present, huh?) been through many major and minor storms from the 40's, 50's and Camille, Donna, Betsy and others, and I have NEVER gotten used to anything about a hurricane, forecasts, models, the wind, noise, flooding, and of course worst of all, after the storm for the affected areas.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ed Geary
Unregistered




Re: 5AM updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #22456 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:50 AM

Happy Birthday Richard!

I'll be 50 on Friday (9/3/54). Yep, we are getting a heck of a present!

Good luck to all.

Ed Geary
Clermont


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Chad
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
Re: 5AM updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #22458 - Wed Sep 01 2004 08:54 AM

Very true...you never get used to the storms themselves.
(My first was Donna)

--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Chad]
      #22459 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:03 AM

The latest 06Z models show a nudge to east a little which would keep the eyewall offshore until GA/SC. It could be a fluke run, but we shall see.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22460 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:07 AM

Also looks like there is a more N-NW track in the recent movement. I don't think FL is yet a lock.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #22464 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:10 AM

Quote:

The latest 06Z models show a nudge to east a little which would keep the eyewall offshore until GA/SC. It could be a fluke run, but we shall see.


Yes, but if you live in the current forecast area, you should ignore 'minor' changes in the forecast and all of the models...minor changes won't help you much and depending on the change, may hurt even worse. Models are neat tools, but when the wind starts blowing, you don't want to be saying "...but the UKMET says this is just a shower....It *Can't* be the hurricane!!!" No, plan for the forecast, hope for the models that show it is a fish, but ACT on the forecast!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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kelcot
Unregistered




Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ricreig]
      #22467 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:22 AM

hey all you guys in Fl! (I'm in Atl but grew up in SFL)- anyway-
when you are prepairing to hunker down, don't forget the simple things! Blankets, pillows, manual can opener, first aid kit, fire extinguisher, medications, cell phone and car charger, and a few pots and pans, fill up bathtubs, sinks, etc. (An ice chest full of beer is always nice to) Ya'll be careful down there!!!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: kelcot]
      #22468 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:46 AM

12Z models out. Looks like more movement to the west:

http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ed in Va]
      #22470 - Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 AM

The GFS 12Z will not be out for a couple more hours..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: kelcot]
      #22473 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:15 AM

Quote:

hey all you guys in Fl! (I'm in Atl but grew up in SFL)- anyway-
when you are prepairing


Hi...you guys up there in the ATL area may just get some of the leftover pieces we Floridians can't absorb. Some of the forecast tracks point the pieces right into your neck of the woods, and we all know what hills do to rain....yeah, flooding...be cool, be safe and pray for us in the middle of it all. Can't hurt, might help...even if you are agnostic

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: GFS 06Z Models Nudged East a little [Re: Ricreig]
      #22474 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:23 AM

I sure hope the ukmet is wrong cause I don't want to watch a storm go up Mobile bay

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD! [Re: HCW]
      #22475 - Wed Sep 01 2004 10:25 AM

Guys, Mike's had a new thread up for a while, you should post on that one!

From John C - This Thread is now locked go to most recent thread to make new posts. Thank You

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by John C (Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 AM)


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