Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Hurricane is moving west northwest toward the southern Bahama Islands today. is expected to take a more northwesterly course on Friday toward the central Florida peninsula.
Her winds are currently at 140mph with gusts to 170mph - a Category IV hurricane. While some fluctuation in intensity is likely over the next couple of days, I now expect landfall in the Stuart to Fort Pierce area at 5am on Saturday morning with winds of 145mph gusting to 175mph. [This does not mean people outside this area should let their guard down - mike]
Frances should pass 25 to 30 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4pm Saturday afternoon - winds at that time near the center should be 115mph gusting to 140mph with winds in the Melbourne area and along the beaches at 100mph gusting to 125mph.
(Image thanks to )
As this graphic shows (Thanks again Sketobyte), this is a BIG storm with a wide area of effect. I'd like to remind all in the forecast path that by the time it even GETS to shore, the landfall area will have had storm winds for HOURS. If it comes ashore in the MLB area for instance, ORLANDO will have had Hurricane force winds for quite some time already and TS force for much longer. The LAND FALL TIME is not 'how much time I have to complete preparations', it is many hours earlier....like by Friday evening at the latest. I hope all of the members of this forum realize this, but preach it to your neighbors that are stiing around watching local TV and NOT realizing the time is MUCH less than the landfall times would suggest.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Interesting...can you make that graphic for the point before it comes ashore? near WPB/Bahamas area. I would like to see the wind swath down here in the PBC/Broward/Dade area.
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Dani
Unregistered
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Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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The spagetti runs from Hurricane Alley are VERY interesting to say the least. Take a look.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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Dani,
Where can I get the coordinates for my exact location? I know I am sweating this thing out here in Deerfield Beach. Good posts guys! Reading this forum helps calm the ANXIETY some! God bless us all!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...
Yea, well try 9 miles for me......I think its coming right over my house.
sigh
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Wow. That spaghetti model certainly tells the tale, doesn't it?
Looking at the water vapor loops, I think this thing might get nudged a little north, more towards the cape than WPB as these models are trending.
It seems as if the upper air just west of Florida is slowly moving north. Not a lot to spare Florida, just enough to push her more north when she gets close.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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SHe has slowed to crawl. I wonder what the 11am advisory will say????
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Hello: the ULL to the east of has no effect what so ever on the future path of the storm. The path will be determined by the point of convergence of the ULL to the west and the ridge...the storm will follow that air flow...all the models point to that...the further the ULL west retrogrades the more likely the convergence will continue south.
I am actually on the central west coast where we DO NOT need this to come. In fact nobody needs this...it will finish the agricultural damage only begun by to say nothing of the potential damage in lives and other property. This is not wish casting! But I am telling my associates that this system can and may cross the state and effect them on Saturday, which IS NOT being broadcast by the media here as they rely solely on the guidance for advice.
To me the and UKMET look all to reasonable to ignore...that's all I am saying here.
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doug
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Dani,
Where can I get the coordinates for my exact location? I know I am sweating this thing out here in Deerfield Beach. Good posts guys! Reading this forum helps calm the ANXIETY some! God bless us all!
Here's a good spot. Uses the geographic center of your Zip Code:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Quote:
Yes, and unfortunately I just found out that I am only 27 miles from the eye...I was better off when it didn't work...
Yea, well try 9 miles for me......I think its coming right over my house.
sigh
With an eye 20+miles wide, it is likely that you both will be in the eye, along with thousands of your neighbors to the north & West along the path. 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 AM)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I dont know how far the eye will be from my house. The Storm isnt close enough to determine that yet. The track will probably change a lot before we even have to concern ourselves with that. Whats important is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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I don't see slowing to a crawl. Where are you seeing this?
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Here's another way to figure it out.
Go to the national weather service website in Melbourne. You click on your area, a forcast comes up complete with the coordinates for your area.
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oscar
Unregistered
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After watching all the animated models available..., seems like you are on the right track. I hope it hits north of metropolitan areas, especially WPB and surrounding cities. The main concern, since the eye is 20 miles wide, will be the amounts of rain into a 100 miles radio, plus possible tornadoes within the same areas.Congratulations for all of you for this great site.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Latest vis loop at NASA....can't remember the link. It's on ATWC.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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any way someone can post the web address to punch in your Lat and Long to see where the eye is going?
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Kelly
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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From what I can tell from the latest IR loops that I have available, has not slowed down in my opinion, and still looks to be on that 280-285 degree heading
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Lastest Discussion is up.. Weatherunderground appears to be having issues so I will post it here..
** WTNT41 KNHC 011445 ***
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 69.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.6N 71.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 76.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.0N 77.5W 130 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.6N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Is it undergoing another eyewall replacement? The eye is looking a little raggedy in the last couple of frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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