jth
Storm Tracker
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Actually, Jav is correct. The past few hours have been due west. The long term is still WNW, but there has been a definite jog west recently.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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That's not good news, man. I've got enough stress worring about my family, not to mention worring if it's going to be a double whammy. And don't hurricanes like warm water?
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Kelly
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Starting to waver on the Florida Keys, but for sure Miami is as good a shot as any...hurricane is wavering a little to the left...maybe on a wwnw heading. maybe just a glitch. One thing for sure, we have a serious player. Still betting on a GOM entry, though we all keep thinking..."just another 6 hours and I'll get a handle on this"...
If it gets in the gulf ....then the higher SST's will really make for a miserable weekend for someone...
The huge eyewall is impressive...definitely a "trailer trasher"
fascinating...
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Would you agree with the set up I described above. It looks more and more likely.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Can someone please explain what the 285 #s are I dont understand if that is west or what.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Clark, any thought on this thing making the GOM... appears Jason has, what say you??...
btw, I've enjoyed reading your analysis during the week as they related to this storm....
Also thought Scotts take has been pretty good to date as well... of course all that will crash and burn if this thing goes n to SC and NC... and we'll never hear the end of Joe B's greatness.... hehe
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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Quote:
. ..."just another 6 hours and I'll get a handle on this"...
...and if I only had winning lottery numbers......
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Kelly
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Can someone please explain what the 285 #s are I dont understand if that is west or what.
Those are degree readings...think like an analog clock. 0 degrees is 12 noon, 90 degrees is 3:00, 180 is 6:00 and 270 is 9:00 (due west). So 285 degrees would be just north of due west direction wise. Hope that helps.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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A couple of things to remember......
This is not exactly how is going to come ashore. This is the best guess for the moment, and will continue to change. Who ever on the east FL coast gets this will know for sure maybe an hour or two before it makes landfall, so it's best to be prepared for the worse. Because of the way it is going to come at the coast, many people are going to feel the affects. And if they miss the forecast, and they do everytime by at least a small margin, it more than likely will be to the right. The Cape, Daytona (again!!) and JAX need to be ready for a really bad day Sunday just in case. It's not going to be a good day for most of us anyway, this thing is huge and forecast to stay a Cat 4. The rainfall amounts projected by the have been small up to now because hasn't run right over somebody, but you could be inside the rainy part of the storm for well over a day this weekend if you're in FL. If anybody comes up with a graphic showing how much rain FL could get, I'd be interested in seeing it.
IMO, I think this is a good forecast, but I also think it's going to get bumped up the coast just a little before it's all over. I do not see the center getting into the gulf at all. My call from 72 hrs out would be Sat afternoon, the Cape to Daytona, Cat 4, and not moving in any hurry.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yea but the last frame the new one just a touch N.I guess she is doing the stair step.It was a good step W though.See how this plays out later tonight.I'm still thinking way S in FL.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Frank P, I've been on the southern end of things for awhile now. There's a long discussion I wrote in the last thread (about 5-6 posts down on pg. 3) early this morning about the storm and don't really see a reason to deviate from that...particularly because that's been my thinking for a couple-few days now.
In essence, I do think it'll make the Gulf, with people from Biloxi to Apalachicola needing to watch it, but it's probably a NW Florida storm once out there, maybe as a cat 1/2. There are some parallels between this storm's track and Erin, although I think the initial landfall will be further south in Florida while the secondary landfall may be slightly to the east. Just my feelings as of now.
I'll probably not look at things again until late tonight, as I'm getting kinda drained and have work I need to get to.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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due north = 0 degrees
due east = 90 degrees
due south = 180 degrees
due west = 270 degrees
Since a circle has 360 degrees, a compass has 360 degrees, too. North is at 0 degrees.
The cardinal points divide the circle into 4 equal parts.
360 divided by 4 = 90, so the cardinal points are 90 degrees apart. Therefore:
North = 0 East = 90 South = 180 West = 270
The intercardinal points mark the midway point between the cardinal points.
90 divided by 2 = 45 Therefore:
NE = 45 SE = 135 SW = 225 NW = 315
Note that the cardinal points are also 90 degrees apart, because there are four of them.
The secondary intercardinal points mark the midway points between the cardinal points and intercardinal points.
* The cardinal and intercardinal points are separated by 45 degrees.
* 45 divided by 2 = 22.5
Therefore:
* NNE = 22.5
* ENE = 67.5
* ESE = 112.5
* SSE = 157.5
* SSW = 202.5
* WSW = 247.5
* WNW = 292.5
* NNW = 337.5
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Not real happy guys.
I can imagine 3 tracks to get this storm out of here but for now..
3 tracks come to mind and are real visible on wunderground.com...
1926
1945
Donna
Mayfield said in his interview even HE can't remember the last time the coast N of WPB got hit with a major storm.
That is because they usually don't. Climo. Odds based on climo.
IF there was a strong front/dip somewhere I wouldn't mind so much but I'm not a better and these are crappy odds that this storm doesn't hit further south.
In my humble opinon.
Check out the tracks for yourself and think before you reply.
Also.. the ULL is not helping.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Latest wind swath available here:
http://www.skeetobite.com/flhurricane/nhc_adv31.jpg
Now with 3 coordinates-
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Space Coast
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Here's a detailed discussion about the possibility of a track across FL into the GOM. I don't know anything about the folks who produced this, but it certainly makes for an interesting read. Maybe Jason could comment on it?
The latest signs are not promising at all. Some of the models, like the and are indicating a turn too far to the north, without any support from the 500mb vorticity fields. There are no ML troughs or lows that could turn the system. The UKMET responds to this condition by turning the storm to the west and into the Gulf of Mexico as does NASA and . Second, the trough over Louisiana is farther north than yesterday. These two scenarios are quite grim for Florida. However, what the models are in agreement with and are in touch with reality is that there will be somewhat of a WNW motion due to the weak upper trough. In short, there does not appear to be anything to spar Florida form a landfall. Track guidance is mostly based upon the and the 6Z is unrealistic indicating a SC landfall. While the landfall location is similar near the Palm Beach area although a few tenths to the south of 0900 UTC, the major change is that this forecast now brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a threat to the Florida Panhandle at the end of the period.
Full Article Here
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AphCane04
Unregistered
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Quote:
From the latest discussion:
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
The ridge could weakn faster, or more, than the models anticipate. I doubt a landfall in Northern Georgia / South Carolina, but somewhere in North Florida is still a good possibility.
What mechanism do they think could weaken the ridge as they imply in the discussion?
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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kinda gathered that last nite by the tone on your 10 forecast.. looks like you maybe getting overtime this weekend
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Frances has been moving north of west, and that's what she was forecast to do. From 11am Saturday to 11am today she's moved 3.7 degrees north and 17.9 degrees west. Last night I looked at the projected path and eyeballed what I though the coordinates for the 8am advisory would be. I estimated them to be 21.4n and 67.8w. This morning at 8am I checked those coordinates and they were officially 21.4n and 69.1w. I still think this storm is moving faster west than some had forecasted it to do, and I personally believe it will continue to do so. Obviously it's going to take some jogs to the north, but I just don't see a drastic turn to the NW taking place. There are some interesting weather features out there now(i.e. trof, high pressure ridge), but I still see the ridge guiding in a general westerly direction and for that motion to continue for quite some time.
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Check the Surf
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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I am still sure it will turn, but I am unsure how close it will be to the coast
several of the *reliable* models are taking it more to the north--AVN takes it VERY close to Cape Canaveral--about 30-40 miles, but offshore; the takes it well offshore, then turns it back to the west towards Daytona Beach, then about 20 miles offshore, curves it up into Georgia; takes it NW, getting closer to the coast as it moves north, and taking it inland into N Florida or Georgia
more reason to doubt the forecast is that appears again to be weakening--the eye is much more ragged and appears to have collapsed overnight, much like Isabel last year before the weakening trend; as for more evidence supporting a northward turn is that it is elongating towards the NNW and the western edge of the outflow has flattened and is now shooting straight north, and the ULL is still over the Bahamas showing little or no movement now
Frances
also, it does look like has taken a slight NW jog in the last hour
an odd contrast though is that the takes it NW, then turns it W right into West Palm Beach and up the west coast
is that one a possibility at all?
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Looking at the IR loop, seems to be looking a lot less symetrical. Is this due to eyewall replacement, interactions with landmasses, or shallower water? Or could it simply be all of the above or none of the above?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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