andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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if things go according to the forecast what kind of surge will it produce. yesterday someone said 20-30 foot waves also
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lis
Unregistered
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So according to this, do you think Miami/Fort Lauderdale is goign to get the eye?
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Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
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http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Watching this loop makes me think of a S Fl to GOM path.
I'm really looking forward to the 5 and 11 updates...
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Chad
28.97
82.48
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Here is an amazing image for you guys that I have broadband
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/040831/040831_g12_vis_2_anim.html
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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what's interesting is that does not have the deep red convection at the end of the loop that it had at the beginning of the loop, this looks to me as a direct affect of the outer bands as interact with mountains of the island below
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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hur. force winds extend 80 miles out and t/s winds 180 so even if it goes north of miami they are going to get at least tropical storm winds.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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the ULL is near the keys not in the bahamas, and moving sw. and is moving just n. of due west.and most models are taking it into cent. fla. or near palm beach.
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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the ULL is near the keys not in the bahamas, and moving sw. and is moving just n. of due west.and most models are taking it into cent. fla. or near palm beach.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I think the Weather Channel estimated up to 20.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Kroemerk
Unregistered
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EEEK! I live 5 miles straight north of ! We really dodged the bullet last time - our power was miraculously only out for like 6 hours. Doesn;t look like we will be so lucky this time. Any guesses about how fast of winds I will see? Or do I not REALLY want to know 
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C.J.inNaples
Unregistered
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I live in Naples, just south of where Chuck hit. So far its not looking too good for anyone in south FL. Whats the chance this thing will pull another Andrew?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just was able to get back online. We had a heck of a storm here last night that lasted 4 hours! Knocked out my cable modem, so I had to go swap it out. Anyway, I'm able to get Channel 9 in Orlando (I don't know why since I'm in Lakeland) and they are showing 100mph winds in Orlando. Now, I'm 45 miles to Orlando-Disney World. What I'm wondering is what to expect. If I'm reading Skeeto's windfield map correctly, I'm in those hurricane force winds. My husband just called and said he can get a generator, and for the first time in my life, I didn't know what to tell him to do.
Any ideas?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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For what its worth, I'm not seeing any northward component happening, the upper level low falling apart ahead of it is the main reason. If the tracks are wrong it's probably biased to the right. So the Gulf scenario is a higher probability than the Carolinas at the moment, but by no means a sure thing.
If the storms slows up sooner then the movement to the right would be more likely.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Don't know if this has been posted...the 12Z , which shows a SC landfall on Tuesday. Anybody give this any credence?
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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fredwx
Unregistered
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Frances continues to approach the Florida East Coast. is a larger storm than and has the potential of greater damage when it makes landfall.
FORECAST VALID Saturday 0800 EDT 26.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT (150 MPH) ...GUSTS 160 KT (185 MPH)
Hurricane Winds could extend outward 80 miles to the NE of the center and 60 miles to the SW of the center.
Damaging winds of over 55 mph could extend outward 140 miles to the NE and 105 miles to the SW
Tropical Storm force winds (39mph or more) could extend outward up to 200 miles to the NE and 130 miles to the SW.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/011503W5.gif
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raeolight
Unregistered
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Hey Bill,
My first post so I hope I am doing this right...
Next door in Bluffton here...I checked the coordinates of Bluffton on the site listed previously here, and it shows us about 180 miles away from the eye at its closest point. I know evacuation can be a madhouse here, but for now we are waiting it out.
Take care!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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This was posted on Storm2K by a professional met relative to the new run..... for what its worth.....
""First off, the new is too far north in the short term. By 00Z tonight, it has at around 22.9n 71.3w. That means it would have to gain a full degree latitude from now until 00Z.... not goint to happen with a 280-285 heading.
Secondly, I remain baffled at the first moving the storm north INTO a 589-590 dm ridge. Synoptically, it digs the west coast trough which in turn develops the ridge over the east... with the ridge axis to the west of . This tells me the storm continues WNW.
Third, it stalls the storm off of the east coast...waits for the west coast trough to progress east, then lifts it into GA/SC. I think the stalling concept is absurd given the strength and orientation of the ridge.
Those are my thoughts as to why the 12Z is yet again out to lunch."""
I don't think he gives it much credit...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The Chief Met in Orlando said that we will see fluctuations in the eye either due to strengthening, repositioning of the eyewall, etc. But I think you're right, too.
Here's something else he said: that this storm is the size of TEXAS and the windfield (not the winds themselves) span an area from the Keys to Atlanta. If that gives anyone food for thought, take it with some Alza Celtzer. We have sitting projectiles all over the place, from Tampa to Daytona. They still haven't picked up the debris from , and Orlando is in fast-track mode trying to do this. They also said that watches/warnings would probably go up tonight because of the amount of people they will have to evacuate and that voluntary evacuations of special needs people will probably start in the morning on the east coast. We still have a lot of people from FEMA here, so that is an inhibiting factor for hotel reservations. I mean, where the heck are all these people going to go?
What a nightmare.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Ed geary
Unregistered
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Colleen, I work in Orlando, just north of Colonial Drive on John Young Parkway.
Sky is blue, winds are calm and it's actually pretty nice!
Ed G
Clermont
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I may be able to address that one model: at 10:30am, they were doing an EM conference in Seminole County. After that, they had the met on in Orlando. He said that all but one model (as of today) have come into line with a se central Florida landfall, except for one that takes it up to S. Carolina. He said that was the only one out of 25 models to do that, so I wouldn't put much credence in it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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