scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Frank do you know where you saw it posted that the met said that? Any link? Ty. Also Mike when you can, can you see if you can get the links up for the local NWS updates. I see the link says error. TY.
I will post a new forcast on in a hour or so.
scottsvb
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raeolight
Unregistered
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ok now for my second post...
as soon as I had posted to Bill I came back and read your post and followed the link, so I ask also of anyone within reading distance: how much credence is there to this scenario?
Thanks!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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It was Air Force Met....
the topic was 12Z another head scratcher...
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rjp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Obviously this is a different storm, but didn't most of the models for have it heading into Tampa, where as just one had it going further south, which it ended up doing? Could see something like that again here, possibly, but these are two different storms.
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Roberta
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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I've been reading all the discussions here for a couple of days and sincerely THANK the "hurricane experts" here for their sensible and knowledgeable analysis of this looming monster storm! 
I have a question (just SLIGHTLY nervous now - BIGTIME!  )
We live in Sebastion, FL - about 20 miles south of MLB. We are about 6 miles inland in a frame house with concrete foundation, but in a neighborhood with LOTS of big pine trees. Our landlord cut down the big pine in our front yard yesterday. I am disabled - nearly bedridden), but my hubby is healthy, along with our little chihuahua.
What are your ideas about us evacuating? Should we, and WHERE in the world should we go? (from the GREAT graphics posted, it looks like most ALL of FL will be affected by those high winds!) We have bought supplies - should we just get boarded up and stay in our safest room...or get on the road?
If the storm comes in as shown and predicted, we here in the Sebastian and MLB area will be under the gun for quite a few hours (from early Sat. a.m. to at least LATE Sat. nite or early Sunday morning).
We went thru the storms 10 yrs. ago in Pensacola (Erin and Opal) and that was unforgettable...Erin was supposedly a Cat I, but she blew the roof off our motel - we high-tailed it on Opal to Birmingham and ended up right in her path and spent the night in the laundry room of a KOA campground, LOL! Opal WAS a Cat 5 at the time we got mandatory evac orders, and the bad weather and winds arrived about 16 hrs. before she hit, so packing up the car and RV was pretty rough...just saying this to CONFIRM that the bad weather from WILL arrive way ahead of her, so anyone affected, PLEASE get started and complete your plans and preparations NOW!
So, PLEASE...will be grateful for any advice that the knowledgeable folks here can give us!
Thank you in advance for your help!
Roberta in Sebastian, FL
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raeolight
Unregistered
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Thank you for the reponse and to anyone else who has done so!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Welcome, Roberta. My best advice to you is this: if they tell you to leave, leave. Even if you aren't told to leave, but don't feel comfortable since you are disabled, listen to your gut and go. They will be having a special needs evacuation in the morning. Better to be safe than sorry. My prayers and best wishes are with you and your husband. Also...I did hear about a special "pet shelter" in Seminole County. If you can get Channel 9 out of Orlando, tune in, they have lots of information. Good luck and God bless.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Roberta,
I know your area well and wish that it misses one of my favorite places in the state.
That said, Sebastian is no place to be if this storm hits where it is supposed to. It's pretty flat and the winds there will be worse than either of the storms you described.
My advise would be to 1. either make a hotel reservation in Orlando and get there no later than Friday morning or 2. figure out where the nearest shelter is and be prepared to ride it out in the shelter.
The hotels in Orlando, especially the ones built in the last decade, are designed for strong winds and are going to be much safer than the area around Sebastian.
Harris Rosen, which owns two Quality Inns on International Drive, a Rodeway and a couple of others, will be offering discounts to those who have to evacuate. 407-996-1600 is one of his hotels.
Hope that helps
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Is the convection on the Wane?? She doesn't look good right now. Is this dry air entrainment??? Maybe this will save the day.....come on......weaken to a cat 2....that I can live with. BTW, traffic heading from Brevard west to tampa is 8 hours, with little gas to be had>>> 
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obshaz
Unregistered
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We live in the Ormond Beach area and are torn between leaving and staying. Can anyone give me a little advice?
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Just heard from our neighbors, a local engineering firm, said they did a storm surge analysis for Brevard County. The results were that with a category one hurricane directly hitting the county, most places would experience a storm surge all the way to Interstate 95.
They didn't do it for anything more than a Cat. 1
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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By all means...if they tell you to leave, DO IT. Especially if they ask you for a next of kin if you decide not to leave. Anyone near the beach will need to leave if you are going to be in any danger. Once they close the bridges, you're stuck.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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schmoo
Unregistered
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Is there still any chance of this monster pulling an Andrew and heading anywhere near New Orleans.
We are a giant bowl as you know 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Check it again, Steve. It's not on the wane. I'm still trying to find out an answer as to whether or not to get that generator. Any ideas? Anyone?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Roberta in Sebastian.
Given the facts as we know them now;
1. You are in the bulls eye of where the expects this storm to come ashore with 145 plus MPH winds
2. You are in a frame house.
3. Lots of trees
4.. You are not too far from the ocean.
my advice is to Evacuate to a sturdy hotel inland or go north toward Jacksonville or beyond.
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anonymous
Unregistered
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Just strictly my opinion, but it seems that the AVN has had a leftward bias in this season, and others. Living in NJ, it seems the tropical systems that have affected us this year ended up farther east than progged. Of course, the trend is your friend, but I would note that the AVN was also the first model to show a farther right track the other day. Then there's the matter of persistence forecasting. It seems the favored track this year is an east coast track (give or take). While this doesn't mean that it will happen again, I respect it.
My personal opinion is that the actual track could end up to the right of where it is now. FWIW, the ETA seems to be all over the place. You being in Va., I am sure you don't even want to see drizzle. The slowing or stalling is going to make it an even tougher forecast. The best hope there is that the interaction of its large circulation with land will weaken it, but the moisture will still be there.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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if you do leave let someone know that you are and where you are going.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Apologies about the site problems, most of the interactive sites, like this one and storm2k etc are having difficulties do to just the sheer amount of traffic. I'm working on reducing the downtime, and we're monitoring it. If the site goes down it should be back up momentarily. I'm narrowing down the causes of it and hopefully will get rid of it entirely during the event.
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Roberta
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Dear Alan and Colleen,
Thank you sooo very much for your advice and help...it sounds like we better get packed, especially after Alans' friend's engineering firm did that storm surge study for MLB! YIKES!!
One more thing...would it make any sense to head SW towards Naples??
It doesn't look like Orlando is going to be a picnic, either...but I AM going to call that hotel that you gave me, Alan. A shelter is out, since I will need a bed, plus the little dog, who is like our child, LOL!
My daughter is in Okeechobee and just got a mandatory evacuation order, so she headed for a shelter.
Bless you all...I will be praying for everyone's safety...this storm is HUGE...just heard that it is 400 nm wide and will affect most all of FL.
Let me know what you think about Naples...or how about NC?
In All Gratitude,
Roberta in Sebastian
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I live in Palm Bay, about 11 miles inland. I'm staying, just boarded up the house and am fully stocked. Also for Brevard county residents, schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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