rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Port Saint Lucie/White City/Fort Pierce/Vero will be in the NE quadrant-not exactly the best place to be-anyway, the track will continue to shift as the day progresses and perhaps the High pressure system above us may already be playing a role in ' journey.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Track shifts into Martin County Near Jupiter inlet
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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How does the west shift effect the point of landfall if any? Could this storm still have the potential to slip into the Florida Straights or has it gained too much latitude already? Thanks, I just got in ahead of the explanation.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Thu Sep 02 2004 09:10 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Next Question: Is this a stair Step wobble or is this shift consider definitive?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Roberta
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Still watching here in Sebastian, too...the 5 a.m. advisories didn't do much to help me make up my mind to evac or not. Spent most all day yeaterday calling for motels in GA - not ONE available! Finally found one in Enterprise, AL - NW of Dothan. But with so many from the south alreading evacuating...afraid of getting caught on the road or out of gas, with the size of this storm.
Our house is frame on concrete construction and is boarded up good and we are about 6 miles inland...I feel like a "deer in the headlights," LOL! My sister in Ft. Pierce feels the same way...I have heard that evac routes are clogged...does anyone know what the road situation is? 
Roberta in Sebastian, FL
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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I can only say that anyone along most of east coast who is considering leaving should not wait but just do it now. I will drive over and take a look at the Turnpike. It is only a little more than a mile west of me. Yesterday morning at 615am we drove over it to buy supplies at Walmart and The Home Depot parking lot was mostly filled. I need to fill a couple cans with gas and this might be a good time of day to do it.
Still tryin to reason with Hurricane Season.
Hurric,
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Up here in Polk County, the condo owners were headed out to the barrier islands to board up their time share properties. I would imagine that would be the same down there as well, with some heavy traffic both ways. I saw loaded SUV's with Northern Tags loaded up at Gas stations yesterday morning at the gas pumps. A lot of New York state tags etc.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I work for a major airline and just took a look at our booking levels for today. We have a total of...9 seats available from *all* Florida cities to anywhere else today. We also have a whole bunch of FEMA charters going on in and out of Florida today.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't know if Dothan/ Enterprise would be a good place. The 72 hr forecast was just east of Tallahassee. You would probably be in a flood watch area.
I'm in MS, and I don't know if we are in the clear, in respect to the latest shift.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here is a link I posted earlier for traffic conditions statewide.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
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Roberta
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Thanks for all the responses...and, danielw, I think you are absolutely right about the Alabama situation...was looking at it on the map, and doesn't look good with the track right now headed in that area.
Starting to think the best thing to do is hunker down and pray for the best...being disabled, I would have a hard time making that trip anyway.
One more question...does anyone know if the dike around Lake Okeechobee will hold in possible Cat 4 winds?? Myfather-in-law, daughter and other family are there. Daughter lives right ON the lake, and she figures her mobile home that we gave her is a goner for sure...but the shelter there is not too far from the dike, about 2 miles.
Need to get hubby up, give him coffee and scoot him out to the stores as soon as they open...heard they got shipments overnight.
As for me...I am glued between the TV and this forum, LOL!
Roberta in Sebastian
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Pressure has risen to 939mb, up 3mb from last fix.
Eye is now down to 23nm, it was 25 on the last pass.
Based on 0855Z/ 0455 EDT recon fix.
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francois
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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what does it mean?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Looks like a ULL is starting to wrap SW in front of . Last couple of frames have a northward component, but it might be just a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From NWS Miami:
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD BLOW THE WATER IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE FIRST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TOWARD THE SOUTH TOWARD THE HOOVER DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE LAKE LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES... HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO PAHOKEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN... CLEWISTON...LAKE HARBOR...SOUTH BAY AND BELLE GLADE. THE MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE WOULD THEREFORE BE ABOUT 24 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE LAKE. THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. THE EXACT IMPACT ON THE LAKE STILL DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION APPROACHES THE LAKE.
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lis
Unregistered
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I have been watching posts for days. I am in Ft. Laud. Can you tell me what I am in for with a direct hit from this storm? Do you think any of hte houses that were built pre-Andrew can make it through this?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The pressure inside the storm came up. That's good, by most standards. The lower the pressure falls, the higher the wind blows, and the more damage it does. The pressure doesn't have to fall for the wind speed to increase. But that's usually the case. After a storm makes landfall the winds die down and the pressure rises back to normal or standard pressure. Standard pressure is 1013mb or 29.92 inches. They are in different units of measurement.
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Roberta
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Danielw...thanks a million...this eases our minds ALOT!! Bless you for your help!
Roberta in Sebastian
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I haven't looked at the exact new track. Find the Surge Models or levels for your county, then look at the area you live in. If it says you need to go, grab some things and go. Do Not Wait if you live in an area that is low, has been ordered or suggested to evacuate.
Ask your neighbors, especially the long timers, how the area held up during Andrew. If they want to stay let them, but if you even think you need to go. Get Out Right Then. The roads will become clogged, the bridges will be out of service and you Will be riding the storm out in a car.
If your significant other says they want to go. Leave right then and go with them!
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