DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Yea he said it had spectacular stadium effects AND he said the this looks to be a Floyd that very well will brush the coast, if it makes land its where it will make land. Did I hear this man right?? I am trying to finish packing, we are headed to Tampa, only place I could get reservations. I HOPE does a Floyd, but I have been reading here and watching, learning. I think this beautiful monster is going to hit. I just hope anyone listening to will not get what I got, admittly got with my head going in 5 directions. Lord I am tired. 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Clark and javlin. I'm watching Orlando News and I think they are on rerun because I've been hearing the same exact script for the last two hours. Probably getting some very much needed rest for what appears to be a wicked weekend.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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well I know that the is not the most reliable model for tracking tropical systems, but at this point..... which was has for .......now if in the morning the rest of them start showing a trend to the west and south... then the GOM looks like a real possibility..... if the ridge is strong enough it'll happen... I just don't know if it will be strong enough..
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
Latest model diagnostics are out. There are 2 key points here IMHO. First, they mention the 20m height issue, but I thought that was resolved for the 0Z models. I guess not. The second, is in their second to last paragraph when discussing the H5 trough in the N.E. The 2 words about that trough that I key on are "deeper" and "slower".
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think he meant that it *could* deviate to the right or the left of the cone, meaning that it could brush the coast like Floyd. I'll listen and see what he says the next time. I'm not seeing a turn forecasted in the advisories that would indicate a brush, but maybe Mother Nature has other ideas, and I hope it is just a brush.
Now go get some rest. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just read that and have no clue what that all means. Is that good or bad? Will the storm move faster or slower? I'm just a housewife, I don't understand all those weather terms. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Interesting scenario Frank I still think she goes further S over Fl.The forward speed the ridge and open territory.No blocking mechanisms.The field is hers.The possibilty of another 48hrs with the ridge puts her past FL.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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FRANCES OB 05
24.3n
71.4w
they are now entering 70mph fl wnds
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Yeah, that Canadian model is pretty far south and west. I'm not sure how much I buy into it's solution, though. It historically hasn't been a great performer.
By the way, I know they say the model data is updated faster at the address, but you can sometimes get things faster from the original address, http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/. Plus, all of you all were slowing my machine down yesterday with the address, so I'm kinda being selfish here!
(I'd go into more detail, but the 'Net isn't a safe place for that sorta info.)
Time for some rest everyone...me thinks tomorrow's going to be a long day.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Anyone have the 2am update yet?
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fred08
Unregistered
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http://207.156.43.82/
eoc watching sats/ and (far right)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Advisory is late! What's up with the delay?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Don't know but I'm waiting for it before ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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ZZZ someone wake me when it comes out
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The 2am isn't out quite yet...nor is there a recon fix. I think they are likely waiting for the recon fix, particularly on the intensity, to issue the 2am package. I'll comment on it very briefly once it comes out, then it's slumber time.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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mikeG
Unregistered
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got to be recon.....
this could be bad.....last obs was 5 at
FIX TIME 0506
(Z) TIME 0106
(edt) LAT 24.30
(deg) LON 71.40
(deg) Wind Dir. 100
(deg) FL WIND 72.45
(mph) Aircraft Alt. 9974
(ft)
where's other's?
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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this is not floyd. the conditions are totally diff. there was a deep trof. in the s.e. and they were pretty sure it would curve. there is no trof, here to do that. they need to talk about what is going on now not what was there in 1999.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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I'll wait for your comments
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john03
Unregistered
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when do sats come back?
0631z?
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Repeating the 2 am AST position...22.7 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb
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