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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: From NWS Melbourne [Re: clyde w.]
      #23316 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:24 PM

Wow...they just answered every question people on this board have had in the last 3 hours. That was awesome. Thanks, Clyde

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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UPPERLEVEL WINDS
Unregistered




Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: Shawn W.]
      #23317 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM

This move nw from Frances was predictated and expected but if you look to the northern edge of Frances is starting to encounter the high pressure ridge to its north. This is forecasted to slow Frances as it approaches the northern Bahama's and push Frances back to the west to wnw towards Florida. Where this takes place will determin its landfall. Right now forecasted to be West Palm Beach. One of the reasons a hurricane warning is so wide along the east coast is the unknown time Frances will turn back towards Florida. No matter were it makes landfall most of the state will feel effects from Frances. So continue to watch its track but watch for a turn back towards Florida in 12 to 24 hours. This is a very tough storm to forecast so the best advice is to monitor the progress throughout the night and Friday for latest developements

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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Strom Surge Map for Space Coast [Re: jth]
      #23318 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM

Quote:

Moving NW, but I beleive this could be temporary. There is nothing out there to cause a drastic change of direction. Could someone please post a storm surge map for the space coast area. Thanks in advance.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: From NWS Melbourne [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23319 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:30 PM

Thanks Colleen!

What an ironic year to not have access to a PC reguarly. Finally have access again.

Charley was a beast in my neighborhood but this is an entirely different monster all together. Everyone stay safe!!


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Frances - did she make the turn [Re: MrSpock]
      #23320 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM

You guys must be relying on infared becasue the visible clearly shows a NW motions and then back WNW in the last few frames. The infared did appear to have a NNW motion, but that was due to the eye falling apart. Rest assured she is still right on target. WPB to Melbourne landfall.

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
5pm just in [Re: clyde w.]
      #23321 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 948 mb
eye diameter 25 nm

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Frances - did she make the turn [Re: jth]
      #23322 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:33 PM

Thanks Colleen for pointing that out. I was skimming over a lot and missed that, and that message is a gem. I added it to the main page article.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: 5pm just in [Re: HCW]
      #23323 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:37 PM

"DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE."

Well stated! along with the oblique angle at which the storm will be approaching, makes this very difficult to pin down.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Interesting discussion from NWS MLB [Re: Rubber Ducky]
      #23324 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 PM

THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LARGE WIND RADII PORTEND A LONGER PERIOD OF WIND/SURGE IMPACTS OVER A WIDER AREA. THIS ALSO HAS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME VERY...VERY HIGH 2-3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS. THE NATIONAL/REGIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BASIN *AVERAGE* RAINFALL TOTALS OF NINE INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OR SO...ACROSS THE WHOLE OF ECFL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON Frances' TRACK...AND ESPECIALLY HER FORWARD SPEED.

***AS THIS LARGE...POWERFUL...AND VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO USERS NEED BE MADE HERE***

1) BEACUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH Frances IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST...EMPHASIS *STILL* SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE POINT OF THE PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. Frances' WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.

2) ATTEMPTING TO EXTRAPOLATE SHORT TERM (1-3HR) TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES INTO A LONGER TERM MOTION IS PRONE TO BE ERRONEOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN HURRICANE Charley WAS MOVING AT LANDFALL.

3) FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR COMPARISONS TO FLOYD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS BETWEEN FLOYD AND Frances ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THERE IS NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE OVER OR APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE REFERENCES TO THE
MEAN RIDGE EARLIER IN DISC.

4) FOR USERS OF OUR GRIDDED WIND PRODUCTS...THE WIND FORECASTS REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES...AND 34 KNOTS PAST 72
HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNUSUAL DOWNWARD JUMPS IN SPEEDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFT0ERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY. AS WITH HURRICANE Charley...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH INLAND WINDS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
RIVAL OR EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
looks nice in boca [Re: RevUp]
      #23325 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM

A friend of mine in Boca Rotan is riding out the storm - and has been gracious enough to set up a high-speed webcam for me to watch. I can't give you all the link cause nobody would be able to see anything...but I have a great view. Right now looks partly cloudy with a steady breaze...occasion gust to maybe 30mph. Going to be a great show...till the power goes out.

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Frances - did she make the turn [Re: MikeC]
      #23327 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM

I don't know if this has been posted or not, but the Fla Turnpike Authority has lifted all tolls on roads in Central Florida and WKMG-TV is reporting that the Bee Line Expressway which goes from the Cape to Orlando will probably be turned into a one-way road away from the coast......

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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
MLB AFD [Re: MikeC]
      #23328 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM

Parts of that AFD were written by an occasional contributor here, and a buddy of mine, Tony Cristadi...a GREAT forecaster...

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Jason Kelley


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fred08
Unregistered




Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: UPPERLEVEL WINDS]
      #23329 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM

i am seeing somethings on a sat loops that got my eye....i think Frances is about to slow down and possible to a stationary halt!!!!!! there appears to be a dry ridge south of cuba and into the carib....its expanding and forming up with what looks like another dry ridge, from ft myers towards daytona and out towards 32n and 75 and back down around the outer west outflow of storm to just north of keys.....it's expanding and appears this is interacting with her now.....there is something over okla.... could help the weak trough along se to move off to ne......this appears in my view is what might cause a stall in 12 hrs or so.....

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Pinpoint Weather.... [Re: fred08]
      #23330 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:55 PM

That was a great discussion by NWS Melbourne. Anybody know if Stewart will be doing the discussion for NHC tonight?

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: MLB AFD [Re: wxman007]
      #23333 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 PM

I've always felt that the folks at MLB understood that the common reader occasionally stumbles on the discussions and the importance of making them understandable and impactful.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: MLB AFD [Re: clyde w.]
      #23334 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:59 PM

Yes he is.....

NEW TOPIC IS UP...

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Jason Kelley


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bmw
Unregistered




Re: MLB AFD [Re: wxman007]
      #23369 - Thu Sep 02 2004 06:04 PM

What is a good live internet site to follow, that will give me up to date info about what this storm is doing?

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Terry Johnson
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 11
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: question from Gainesville [Re: fred08]
      #23420 - Thu Sep 02 2004 07:21 PM

Yes, it does.

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