jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Moving NW, but I beleive this could be temporary. There is nothing out there to cause a drastic change of direction. Could someone please post a storm surge map for the space coast area. Thanks in advance.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
Is the window closed on GA, NC, SC? No. But that is the absolute least likely of all the possible scenarios right now...I'd be more apt to call for a hard left turn into the Keys than I would for a NC landfall (and I am NOT calling for a Keys landfall).
Current motion is NW..I do expect to see a resumption to a more WNW track down the road aways...of course if this does not occur, the forecast landfall points will have to be adjusted, but for folks in S FL, this doesn't matter...it doesn't matter where the eventual landfall of the eye is, it is going to be rough from the Space Coast to near Miami regardless...the landfall point is more important for the evolution of the storm inland than for residents of S FL.
Pressure up...eye less distinct...I think Hank has some good ideas here..what I think this that some drier air got sucked in just about the time of an ...I do expect the storm to stabilize and maintain Cat 4 strength.
I put the probably of a strike between MLB and WPB at 90%...not certain, but I just don't see anything that would allow anything else to happen.
Thanks Jason,
the NW motion has me wondering but she'll apparently resueme the WNW soon I think landfal a bit North of previous however. We'll see
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guestfromGville
Unregistered
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Hi... I remember hearing how you want to OPEN certain windows sometimes when a tornado is approaching. Assuming we get 80-90 mph sustained winds here, and one of my windows breaks, is it ever a good idea to open more to allow the air to flow through, instead of too much pressure building up inside the house, possibly lifting off the roof? I am surrounded by trees, as is most of Gainesville, which could cause other, possibly worse problems than some broken windows. I am in a fairly strong cement block house from the mid-50s. Putting up plywood is not really an option for me. Even if I wanted to, I believe most of the wood has sold out aleady. People here seem to be stocking up on supplies, but not really covering windows. Thanks for any help.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Could be anything...probably a temporary weakening of the ridge to the NE...but as it does gain some latitiude the ridge should reassert itself and push it more to the WNW...this is not unexpected.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, folks..this is straight from the horse's mouth:
San Salvador (not in the direct path of the storm) just reported a gust up to 115mph.
*Max says: "we expect this to criss-cross the state and exit into the northern gulf of mexico. Inland counties are going to see quite a bit of damage."
No change in his forecast track, didn't mention a movement to the NNW. I"m not saying he isn't seeing it, but with he DID acknowledge that the track had changed; so I guess what I'm saying is that if he was seeing any kind of trend that would change the current track, he would have said it. And probably long before his interview with Sheppard Smith on FNC.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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Thanks, Jason.
TWC just confirmed the Northwest track, and, said, that if it kept on the current track, it would go into North Florida -- but they expect it to turn wnw again after around a day, as Jason was describing.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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NO NO NO!!!!!!!
The myth of opening windows was that earlier it was thought that pressure differences caused the structural failure of homes...this is not the case, and the last thing you want to have is open windows, as this creates wind inflows that will make it much more likely to lose your roof. If one fails, opening more won't help...
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Jason Kelley
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm sure I'm not the only one to notice this, but isn't it an eerie coincidence that, in 1992, the names for the storms that year went Andrew, Bonnie, , Danielle, Earl, ? Now, yes, I know the recycles unused names, but this year of all years, with a storm like that brings back memories of Andrew, it just happens that the same names haunted us in 92? Forgot about that one....
Man the weirdnesses continue....
Londovir
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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If you do have screened in swiimming pool, you may want to remove some of the screening on each side, so that your screen cage doesnt collapse or even worse end up in your neighbors yard.. Screens are of no use to you in a hurricane anyways, and are fairly cheap compared to the cage..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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It seems that Accuweather.com has taken into a count that the storm is moving a little more north than expected. They shifted their track to make landfall in Brevard, and track directly over Orlando. Hopefully this isn't the case cause the middle will go right over my house. 
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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A couple of things.....The Accu-Weather met on CNBC said there still could be a possiblility of a small window of opportunity of moving up to the Carolinas, but albeit a very small one...
Also the -Miami game has been postponed until 9/10...and it looks like that the Universal Back Lot is closing tonight around 6pm and they may close the whole park on Friday....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Did her direction change or was it just a wobble? I can't tell and I'm not an expert - just wanted to know.
ticka1
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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ShadowWind
Unregistered
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I thank you all for explaining this. I am in the dreaded Fort Pierce and evacuations have not been forthcoming they say until 6am in the morning except for residents of the coastal A1A, but I am wondering if I have not made a horrible mistake by not leaving to parts away from all this (Naples). The current track shows the storm headed to Port St. Lucie. I will be evacuating to a shelter, but I am scared that the shelter will be in the brunt of the storm. Should I seek a shelter a little further west, or go to the one in Fort Pierce or PSL? Are most shelters designed for this sort of thing, one of this magnitude? It's an elementary school.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Great discussion from the Melbourne NWS office. Here's and excerpt:
FRI-SUN...CURRENT TPC TRACK IS IN FINE SHAPE AND EXPECTED IMPACTS
WELL PUT FORTH. HAVE BEEN WITNESSING SEVERAL TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO INTENSE EYEWALL CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS OWING TO A LITTLE WEAKNESS AT
H30-H20 HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE ELONGATED CARCASS OF THE LOW
THAT HAD BEEN IN FRONT OF SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE MEAN LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG FROM 400MB AND
BELOW...AND EXTENDS WEST OF 80W.
THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LARGE WIND RADII PORTEND A LONGER PERIOD
OF WIND/SURGE IMPACTS OVER A WIDER AREA. THIS ALSO HAS A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME VERY...VERY HIGH 2-3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE NATIONAL/REGIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BASIN *AVERAGE* RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NINE INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OR SO...
ACROSS THE WHOLE OF ECFL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS IS
VERY DEPENDENT ON ' TRACK...AND ESPECIALLY HER FORWARD SPEED.
***AS THIS LARGE...POWERFUL...AND VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE COAST...SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO USERS NEED
BE MADE HERE***
1) BEACUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST...EMPHASIS *STILL* SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE
POINT OF THE PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. ' WIND FIELD
IS VERY LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE
THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.
2) ATTEMPTING TO EXTRAPOLATE SHORT TERM (1-3HR) TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES
INTO A LONGER TERM MOTION IS PRONE TO BE ERRONEOUS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN
HURRICANE WAS MOVING AT LANDFALL.
3) FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR COMPARISONS TO FLOYD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
BETWEEN FLOYD AND ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THERE IS NO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE OVER OR APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE REFERENCES TO THE
MEAN RIDGE EARLIER IN DISC.
4) FOR USERS OF OUR GRIDDED WIND PRODUCTS...THE WIND FORECASTS
REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES...AND 34 KNOTS PAST 72
HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNUSUAL DOWNWARD JUMPS IN SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS
MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED
UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE
COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFT0ERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY.
AS WITH HURRICANE ...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH INLAND WINDS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
RIVAL OR EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Hi everyone,
Frances has been moving NW throughout the afternoon. However, this is not an indication of a recurvature. There is nothing that is going to cause such a drastic turn to the north. The ridge is just weak, and as such, I would expect a continued WNW to NW movement with a slowing of speed over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, the trough coming from the Pacific NW will move into the central US and should strengthen the ridge north of . This will cause the storm to move WNW once again.
This is my non-professional analysis. I think the track will look similar to Hurricane Erin in 1995, but will be a little farther north, especially after landfall. I don't think we are looking at a GOM entry.
Ronn
This
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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other news from the tropics . We may have a new TD at 5pm
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N26.5W ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 2N27W 15N25W. MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS WEST ESTIMATED AT 15 KT. THREE TENTHS MEASURED BANDING
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
FLARING..AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Flood Watch Counties added: Charlotte, Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborrough, Lee, Levy, Manataee, Pasco, Pinellas,Sarastora, and Sumter; cities included are Brandon, Bradenton, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearlwater , Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, New Port Richie, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Spring Hill, Venice and Zephyrhills.
(Jeez that was a lot of typing!)
For those of you not familiar with those areas, these are counties and cities on the West Coast of Florida, north and south of Tampa Bay. They said that some areas could expect up to 20" of rain or more. I think that this is also another indication that no one really thinks anything is going to pull this up to the Carolinas, as they are advising the people in low-lying areas to immediately move to higher ground, which means more evacuations.
Finally...they are in the process of moving the horses located in Ocala up to KY, TN, etc. And one cow escaped and caused and accident on I-4, backing up traffic.
Gov. Bush is holding a news conference right now and just said that 2.5 million people will be evacuated.
Okay, I think I got it all.
*Sorry, about the typos...I thought I got them all, guess not. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Thu Sep 02 2004 04:21 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Anything is possible, but the new ETA is out to 48 hrs, and so far, it is still offshore Florida, and it is significantly right of where it was. The question is, is this a bad run? It is confusing because this looks more like the older , which is not out yet. It will be interesting to see when it is. From the loop I look at, it looks to be moving NNW in the very short term, and I wouldn't expect that motion to continue. As showed, they'll do whatever they want, when they want, and maybe this one wants to turn right more now. There would be a couple of advantages, the first being, no direct hit, the second being, that wherever it does hit, the interaction with land could weaken it. I think I am spoiled by the fact that the models are run 4 times a day now. I remember when the LFM and NGM were twice a day, and thinking back, it's a wonder any forecast ever verified!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Local shelters are a very good option! The problem is for all those with pets. If you have to leave your local area, remember you still have about 24 hours until starts affecting the east coast.
I understand the consensus that has developed around a PBI-VRB landfall scenario, but we dare not count out other options. There is still time to make preparations in a calm manner. Some people undoubtedly are leaving their local area into harm's way, and may have a difficult time getting back home.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Terry51
Unregistered
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Jason. If I live in Tarpon Springs in a 2 year old house, should I be considering boarding it up??
That depends...does it have windows?
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 04:57 PM)
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