alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Everyone knew Floyd was turning. The question was when it would turn.
That's not the case with this one. This one isn't turning.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Okay guys- I'm in Atlanta and I'm suppose to be heading to Panama City Beach this afternoon. Any thoughts to this? Put it to mind that I am a hurricane veterin (I grew up in S Fl) and if it looks like will be heading up that way- we'll get out. Do you think people are starting to take precautions there?
Thanks for anyone's input
Kelly
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UGAdawgz
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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what are the current coordinates for this storm?
last coordinates i have are 23.4 N 73.9 W
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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3 days ago I called for North of Ft. Lauderdale and South of Ft. Pierce HIt.
Last night I went to bed thinking how was I going to take my "Crow".
Looking at the track I figured "Stirred at about 145mph".
I will say I feel a little bit better about it today.
Be safe!!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike, you're doing a fantastic job keeping the site up...hadn't been able to get on for more than a minute up until about 10 mins. ago. Let's hope she stays up.
Can't reiterate anything that hasn't already been said...the most sage advice comes from those who have been through big storms before...so listen to them.
NHC forecast track is absolutely scary and they've been excellent with this storm before. JB is still clinging to the notion that this will make the turn, and if memory from early this am serves...the location of by Abaco will be the tell-all. If north, he thinks it will turn and miss FL. If it tracks south or over...then it's FL for sure. He just posted another update and
"Cloud shots are indicating, and recon verifying that is turning more northwest and slowing, and is now moving under 10 mph. I dont see why the course should be much more west than north over the next 36 hours and this means landfall is probably not before Saturday night, or perhaps Sunday morning for Florida.
This is not in any way shape or form an indication that the idea still on the board here is right, it means that it still has chance to be a good one, that the storm stays offshore and the land fall is further north. However that will depend on whether the atlantic ridge stays strong enough to steer it, instead of the hand off to the banana shape on most models."
Trying times ahead. My prayers and best wishes go out to everyone.
Hopefully the site will stay up.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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It would be advisable to stay put here in Atlanta....With reports of mass evacuations all through Florida and gasoline in short supply in North Florida, and the uncertianty of the track after coming inland, it would be a better idea to stay in Atlanta and watch Glenn Burns or Ken Cook....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Just curious, what did Floyd's track look like a 24 hours before it turned? Were the majority of tracks in agreement that it would go into Florida or what?
I definitely don't see this turning at this point, but local mets are still telling us it could happen.
The weather pattern for Floyd was much different than it is for . With Floyd the strong trof was forecasted to push through, and it was basically a wait to see how close Floyd was going to get before the trof picked it up. Right now most of the emphasis is placed on the strong high pressure ridge to the north of . Many models had it in a weakened state by now, allowing to turn NW. However, like Stewart(starting to become a fan of his as well) said in the 11pm update. The ridge seems to be significantly stronger than the earlier forecasts had it, and that's one reason why the track shifted to the west. Whether or not the ridge weakens or strengthens more will help determine if slows down and where she'll make landfall. Remember many of the models had this storm crossing 75w at, or maybe a shade north, of 25n. Right now it appears that will pass to the south of that, and if that's the case the models could shift over to the west a little more.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 PM)
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GulfSide
Unregistered
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What Joe B.'s thoughts on the future of ?
See my above post
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 PM)
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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That's not what I wanted to hear, man. This is an anual trip that my girlfriends and I always take.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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watching the weather... already have hurricane kit in place. will probalbly get an extra case of water when we go to the groc. store to get bar-b-que stuff.. sunday night and monday we will get some fringes (as forecast now) but if you gotta drive back monday you maynot be able to get back
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Plus there could be a second landfall of in the Florida panhandle too...There really is no certianty to what is going to do after it's landfall...and anyway Jeb Bush said yesterday basically if you have plans to travel to Florida this holiday weeked, just cancel them and don't come to Florida....Remember also, this storm is the size of Texas, and when the entire Miami Beach area gets evacuated, they are serious about it.....
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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alicia
Unregistered
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this just keeps getting worse and worse. I've just today found this site so please forgive me if I am doing this wrong. We are in Kissimmee and were hit pretty hard with roof/pool screen damage with and no power for over a week. I have my elderly parents and kids to think about so we planned on going to Clearwater to sisters tonight since my parents need electric for medical reasons.(my husband is in the AF in FWB so we have no helpful men around) Now it seems to be turning more toward Tampa too, and to makes matters worse we just got a call from Shands hospital in Gainesville that they want my dad up there asap as they found a massive infection in blood work and need to take out the battery and electrodes they put in his chest (the day Charly hit no less!)He recently had a DBS operation for parkinsons. Anyhow, I am so afraid we'll be stuck on the turnpike trying to get there and wish they'd just put him in a hospital here. Anyone know how bad the roads really are?
thanks for any help,advice
Alicia
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Again still see no reason for the shift north, and the sat's seem to suggest the momentum is consistent...Pressures in WPB; FTL, MIA and keys noticably lower than others stations...also lower in Naples and FtMyers too(e.g. 29.94 in Ft. L and 30.04 in Melborne, 29.96 in Ft.Myers.)
Two keys here forward speed, does it stall?, will it go south of the track?..
So Far : no sign of stall and right on trac
Yesterday I was on a WPB land fall and then a twelve hour trec across...still on that call..
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doug
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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I'm thinking that if the storm starts to head up that way, we'll take off Sunday afternoon or Sunday Evening.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's a comparison of , Floyd & Andrew. Unfortunately I don't have the computer skills of Skeeter, but if you copy each to a word processing type program and print them out, you can "overlay" them to see the similarites/differences in the paths. Maybe Skeeter can do this for us and put it out as an image? Skeeter, I'll PM you too, but that might be helpful. Follow the links below for your point of reference.
Frances
Floyd
Andrew
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
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Where can I see his ideas?
Quote:
Mike, you're doing a fantastic job keeping the site up...hadn't been able to get on for more than a minute up until about 10 mins. ago. Let's hope she stays up.
Can't reiterate anything that hasn't already been said...the most sage advice comes from those who have been through big storms before...so listen to them.
NHC forecast track is absolutely scary and they've been excellent with this storm before. JB is still clinging to the notion that this will make the turn, and if memory from early this am serves...the location of by Abaco will be the tell-all. If north, he thinks it will turn and miss FL. If it tracks south or over...then it's FL for sure. He just posted another update and
"Cloud shots are indicating, and recon verifying that is turning more northwest and slowing, and is now moving under 10 mph. I dont see why the course should be much more west than north over the next 36 hours and this means landfall is probably not before Saturday night, or perhaps Sunday morning for Florida.
This is not in any way shape or form an indication that the idea still on the board here is right, it means that it still has chance to be a good one, that the storm stays offshore and the land fall is further north. However that will depend on whether the atlantic ridge stays strong enough to steer it, instead of the hand off to the banana shape on most models."
Trying times ahead. My prayers and best wishes go out to everyone.
Hopefully the site will stay up.
Go to Accuweather.com, sign up for the free 30 professional (not premium) service. You can cancel at the end of the 30 days. All you need is a credit card.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 01:03 PM)
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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Maybe the best is start with Shands...if your dad needs to be there asap, then possibly they can arrange transport by ambulance. All you can do is work through this one step at a time. Probably not good, though, to risk having a seriously ill patient stuck on the turnpike.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I've been going over the sat. loops and, IMO, has settled on a NW track. We may have seen the last of the jogging back and forth ( north than west) that she is going to do. Just an opinion.
ShawnS
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Sadie
Unregistered
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Many, many thanks for all your valuable info. Here in Arcadia, only left two holes my roof. At least there is a roof.
We are trying to secure debris piles. I know how slammed you all are, but I have looked everywhere for this info and can't find it. Could you help us all by telling us which direction the strongest winds will be coming from? It will help tremendously when we batten down again. This must be what combat is like, fight an engagement, regroup, and brace for the next sortie. Prayers go up for all.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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the local news said it looked like a lot of people were coming this way from south and central fla..i-95 was packed and I-10 had alot more traffice than usuall
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