scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Jason? Clark? I think you guys missed my Q. On stewarts comment is the new data in the Oz runs or going to be in the 6Z???? ty
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Holy Sh---
I just realized I'm commenting on the old forum...
We all need to get onto the new one...
MY BAD
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Boy, I really feel for you and anyone in the east Orlando area. I was in Oviedo during , helping in-laws weather the storm, then cleaning up the neighborhood afterwards. Prepare for the worst, pray for the best!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Well phil Clark has been doing a Awesome job so far this year. I would listen to him also. Jasons a met and everyone listens to mets. I do have a dg in meteorology though.
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I posted the message below at 5:44 today in the old forum but didn't receive any answers until the latest 11 p.m. discussion. I'm glad to have it answered. Data errors! ugh.
My original forecast two days ago in the forum was for
Islamorada/Mobile based on the ridge not weakening. I don't believe it will go that low at this point, assuming the newest discussion is correct re the ridge a 290 track would be closer to Miami with Marco Is. exit, then skirt north between the trough and the ridge?
Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
#22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.
In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.
See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from .
-Bev
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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guys I would just to say that the model stuff that I posted was from 5pm and I hope to have the 11pm stuff shortly
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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scitt, remember you laughed when i said this could become a cat. 5 and now it could very well be one, ch. 11 fort meyers just said because of the bad data this could be more west and south than they thought, and be stronger........
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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No..no..no..
this is not meant to dis you or the rabbit.
I totally respect your opinions and forecasts (will you be making one tonight, or copping out like me)...I know you are a met...and rabbit will soon be one, as will Clark...
I was just hoping more of the experts like ED (whose probably busy putting up panels on his abode as we speak) JK, you , Rabbi, & Clark could provide us non-mets with some more info than we can get from & other public locations...that's all.
What's your take....GOM hit or no?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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[Channel 9 in Orlando did a forecast for 11 counties on their 11pm news cast.
Where the storm comes in around Vero Beach 145 + winds (poss cat V) no one is saying that "yet".
as it moves through Osceola County 125 mph winds.
Orlando, 100+mph winds (sustained)
Daytona Beach area 80-100 MPH winds
in the path of the storm we are expecting 20 inches of rain ....according to the local forecast.
TWENTY INCHES OF RAIN. !!!! Wind damage aside, there are going to be some new lakes and streams in Central Florida come Saturday.
This, my friends is scary stuff.....
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Which reminds us that there are dangers from freshwater flooding as well.
Gee 20 inches of rain...............where I used to live if it got that in a year it was only due to el nino conditions otherwise i was more 14 inches annually.........power in town would go out with our first rain storm each year.
Just be glad we don't hills or mountains down here.........mudslides are not good to be stuck in. Have seen my share of them out there in Cali.
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John C
Unregistered
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A new thread up all new posts go there.
This thread is now locked.
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