jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
Completely and totally off topic.....UW Badger?!?!?! You rock! 
and you roll
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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ATWC.org...click on loops...click on NOAA and have fun
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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old school New Orleans vet Nash Roberts, a legend in this time, always used surrounding area observable pressure data as a measuring stick to determine potential storm movement and direction... he wore out a many of black markers in this process..... you would really expect this thing to move to the wnw or n of due west around this strong ridge.... maybe that is the beginning...
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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time to throw this out:
some off topic posts starting to show up on this thread, and the end result of too much of that is generally that posting privilidges are cut to people who aren't registered. which sucks, since a good number of unregs make very insightful posts. the admin guys are burdened enough keeping the site up in this heavy-traffic period, they don't need to worry with folks who clutter the main board.. don't push it.
if your post consists of a couple of sloppy sentences, information that isn't suited for this board (several forums are nearly idling elsewhere on the site) or pedantically obvious information, it probably doesn't belong here.. this board is for current events discussion/analysis, with leeway for other critical information, or questions that are generally addressed.. it shouldn't be thought of as a personal chat room.
i'll PM regs who stretch the rules, and edit directions onto unreg posts with questionable content. that's where we are now.
HF 0125z03september
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Didn't see this posted, apologize if it's a dupe...
URNT12 KNHC 030043
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0043Z
B. 24 DEG 17 MIN N
75 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2654 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 324 DEG 77 KT
G. 236 DEG 009 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 11 C/ 3048 M
J. 18 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-NW
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1 / 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A OB 14
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NW QUAD 2325Z.
Interesting that they only found a max fl wind of 98 kt....did they not look hard enough? That's only around 112mph or so....would seem to be a lot less than we've seen before, as ground level winds are less, right? Weird storm continues to be weird....
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Londovir
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Some reports of wind gusts to 175 (not confirmed) but 35' waves are confirmed! Holy 5h!+!
I'm not sure how that will translate to surge (will try to find out) but that can't be good.
Even up here, we're supposed to have 10'->12' waves by Sunday/Monday. Normally they're 1'->3. You do the math.
Questions you guys might not have the time to answer or research? Throw 'em out...I may not have the computer prowess of Skeeter & Mike (who you guys owe BIG TIME), but I can pretty much find out anything you might need to know in a short period of time...google & me...we rock.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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I beg you all tonight to be as realistic in your estimates of intensity forecasts as possible. Please we do not need any exaggerations at this point. ... My question based on what is known now, is how long is Lakeland expected to experience these winds since the hurricane's winds are some what flowing like an oscillating fan. ? An estimate is really appreciated and I am not holding anyone to any exact numbers. Thanks sincerely.
I couldn't agree more with all the hype around here. Seems that everyone wants to share in the limelight! People in Tampa are boarding up their homes! That's not going to keep any trees from falling onto the roofs and doing some serious damage. There's a big difference between a major hurricane hitting coastal areas with a surge of water and winds in excess of 120 mph, and a diminishing hurricane moving inland producing flooding rains, tornados, and strong gusts of wind that topple trees, etc. Coastal areas are demolished - but damage to inland areas is far more sporadic, depending more upon vegetation, structural integrity, etc.
Keep in mind that the diameter of hurricane force winds is estimated to be 80 miles across when it hits the coast, but the diameter and intensity of the winds will diminish as the storm moves inland (beyond 80 miles). The highest winds will be found in the forward right quadrant of the storm, relative to the storm's movement. How everyone fares depends upon the track that wants to take. Only time will tell, unfortunately. Fortunately, we do have with the best tools available to guestimate where and when.
There has got to be a better way to respond to these warnings in the future, though, without everyone getting into a panic.
Just my .02.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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According to some of the reports coming in from the Bahamas 145-155mph winds are the standard, especially on Cat Island. ON CBS 4 they talked to this one lady who owns a grocery store there and you could barely hear her over the winds howling on the phone.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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But Lake Worth is 29.89, and that is not exactly south.
Bill
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
Interesting that they only found a max fl wind of 98 kt....did they not look hard enough? That's only around 112mph or so....would seem to be a lot less than we've seen before, as ground level winds are less, right? Weird storm continues to be weird....
Strange for sure, but just because they only found a 98KT flight wind, doesn't mean a lot. They probably just missed the strongest winds. I think it's down some, maybe 125, but not that down.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Frances seems to be really tightening up. Alot of deep convection around the center, which is wound up pretty good right now.
ShawnS
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks, but that's not what we wanted to hear. A large dose of shear, or Diegel would work for most folks.
Diegel is not to be confused with Dynagel!
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 01:44 AM)
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Max wind report was in the northwest quad. they probably are higher in the northeast quad they just haven't sampled there yet.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Some reports of wind gusts to 175 (not confirmed) but 35' waves are confirmed!
I read somewhere today (or heard in some report) that the Bahamas don't get much storm surge because of ocean depth around islands. But it would make sense that they would still be susceptible to increased (extreme) surf.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I forgot to mention that I can't find any motion to it. I guess because the eye is covered with convection so it's hard to tell.
ShawnS
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It definitely looks as though is back on a W/NW course, and it wasn't just a "wobble".
Question: Steve Lyons mentioned something today at 5 or 6 about dry sinking air coming in which might inhibit the strength of . It was about where the subtropical high/ridge is. I just looked at the WV loop, and to my somewhat trained eye, it looks as though that dry slot is not as dry as it was and he was hoping it would be. It looks like it's filling back in again.
Does anyone else see what I see?
Could this be the cause of the eye changing? Or is it just recycling (again)?
And yes...I heard SL say that Miami would be out of the clear in 2 hours about 4 hours ago. I don't know why he said that...maybe he was thinking this NW track would last longer than it actually did.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I would guess still WNW.
ShawnS
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
It definitely looks as though is back on a W/NW course, and it wasn't just a "wobble".
Check out the Storm Floater 2 IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
I sure don't see the storm turning back toward the W at all...looks to be continuing that slow NW motion.
As for intensity..the convection is definitely on the increase.
--Lou
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hi Colleen --
Typically around these storms, you'll see a lot of dry air. As I mentioned in either a previous post or another thread, there is a lot of rising motion inside the core of the hurricane. However, to keep the atmosphere in balance, there must be an equal amount of sinking motion outside of the core of the storm. Some of this is found in the eye, whereas the rest is found outside the storm.
Thus, oftentimes when looking at water vapor with powerful hurricanes, you will see a lot of dry air around the storm. This can even appear to move towards the storm at times. However, it rarely impacts the strength of the storm as it is a natural by-product of the storm itself. Yes, it is true that all instability (like storms) is designed to restore stability, and that over time,a storm will fill (weaken) on it's own, but the impact of this dry air towards causing that isn't a very big one.
A note about the storm for the board --
The overall symmetry of the storm has improved over the past couple of hours. The storm has resumed a more WNW path, as the expected in their 4pm conference call. I've learned that trying to interpret wobbles over water is a fool's errand -- it usually only leads to you to misjudge what is really going on with the storm. It usually takes a couple-few hours of sustained "wobbling" to suggest that a direction has changed. Though, as we've learned, a little wobble can make a big difference; see for a prime example.
Give the storm another 6 hours and it might start to get its act together once again. It's nearing the longer islands of the Bahamas, but moving slowly. If anything, I think the slower motion - despite interaction with land - could help restrengthen the storm as a result of more consistant inflow patterns (even if they are being affected by land). I don't expect a lot of restrengthening - and I use that term as I expect the winds to be more in the cat. 3 range at 11pm - but some is possible. Let's not go wild with the cat 5 or dissipation posts now; neither is very likely to happen. Near the status quo through landfall is about where we should be looking.
Things are still looking primed for a secondary landfall in the Florida panhandle somewhere, but we have another day or two to figure the particulars of that out. Only recently have the models begun to agree on a east coast landfall location; let's see what happens in the next day or so before going any further than that.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Here's a link to a nice map labeling all the
Bahamian islands ...
As mentioned above, it's going over Cat Island right now, barely south of the latest track.
Edited by RevUp (Fri Sep 03 2004 02:28 AM)
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