MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
(Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands),
Tropical Depression #9 forms in the East Atlantic has a good chance to become .... ,moving west toward the Caribbean... Time to watch later.
Next..
The 5PM position of Hurricane remains on track, slightly adjusted right (closer to Melbourne)... however... it bends it back more left to raise the chances of a Gulf of Mexico event as well..
The windspeed is also slightly down and pressure a little up, but i'm thinking it will fluctuate around this intensity for a while.
Here's an important notice from the Melbourne NWS office and Tony Christaldi:
1) Because of the oblique angle at which is expected to approach the coast... emphasis *still* should not be placed on the point of the projected landfall of the cetner. ' wind field is very large: Tropical storm force or greater winds ecompass more than 50 thousand square miles. Preperations should be made throughout the watch/warning area assuming a *direct* hit from a major Hurricane.
2) Attempting to extrapolate short term (1 to 3 hour) trochiodal wobbles into a longer term motion is prone to be erroneous... especially given the current forward speed. Which is about 10 MPH less than what Hurricane was moving at landfall.
3) For those looking for Comparisons to Hurricane Floyd. The synoptic patterns between Floyd and are completely different. There is no short wave trough of significant amplitude over or approaching the southeast United States or western Atlantic ocean.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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rich
Unregistered
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If you had the choice of Lakeland or Kissimmee where would you ride the storm out at. Lakeland is an apartment building, Kissimmee would be a house built in 2001
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Tropical Storm tomorrow
Frances turned north but the track has been adjusted farther west
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Latest track takes it directly across the state on out into the Gulf of Mexico, instead of a more northerly path up through the state. Winds down to 115mph at landfall (not sure I'm buying that) and it should pass directly over my house before exiting the state a few counties above me.
I think we'll see another track shift again before this is said and done; don't know if they are doing this because of the latest NW movement trends; but I think it would be wise to see what the 11 and 5 am advisories bring us as far as track and intensity.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Yeah...that new track certainly could become a very scary thin for New Orleans later down the line. I am starting to actually beleive in a future northern GOM event. First off though, all prayers go out to those of you in Florida. This could do much more damage than even if she weakens simply because of the sheer size of the storm and the lasting effects of winds.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm sorry...they are adjusting the track back and forth and the info came in early from the . They had listed the winds at 115mph on Channel 9; now they changed them to 130mph. Makes more sense now.
Rabbit...I think the reason they are still shifting the track to the west is because they don't expect that NW movement to continue or have a huge impact on the track. If it stalls - as is predicted - when it starts moving again it could be going W/WNW again, and that's the best explanation I can get out of my non-expert-on-weather brain waves. ;-)
I would expect it to change again. And agan. It's like watching a Tennis match. Only the stakes are higher. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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New Vortex...pressure slightly higher, winds lower...
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/2007Z
B. 24 DEG 02 MIN N
74 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 65 KT
E. 318 DEG 067 NM
F. 048 DEG 104 KT
G. 315 DEG 015 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 14 C/ 3101 M
J. 16 C/ 3105 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A OB 25
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 1823Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 312/010NM
FROM FL CNTR
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Jason Kelley
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Tropic Mark
Unregistered
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Frances now starting to slow its forward speed and I expect it to drop to 5-8 mph durring the night. Tommorow should be interesting day. moved the landfall a bit north at 5pm but I'm not yet convinced of going that far north. The turn w-nw towards Florida may happen sooner than has shown and as slow as will be moving overnight I don't see her that far north when it makes its turn. Stronger easterly winds in the upper level are developing only 75-100 miles north of but will see more tommorow
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Colleen,
You hit it on the head...the Globals (except ) are strengthening the ridge again shortly before and duing landfall and transit, causing a WNW or even W motion...the is finally buying into those tracks.
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Jason Kelley
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caneman
Unregistered
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Oh My, She is getting it back together. Take a look at the deep convection in the southern 1/2 that has come back. WOW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Well sure has made up some ground to the north over the last few hours. Moving .7 degrees north and .9 degrees north from 11am to 5pm today. By contrast she moved .3 degrees north and 1.2 degrees west in the same timespan yesterday. However, she also appears to be slowing some which is probably a factor of her interaction with the land and shallower water that she is now around, what appears to be another eyewall movement and her feeling her way along that ridge to the north. In looking at several of the surface models, as well as, upper level winds I did expect a decent jog to the north sometime today and/or tonight. It appeared to me that the trof out to the west of , back over by the Pensacola area and a little west, had maybe weakened the ridge just a little. Enough that she could track further north than she had previously. However, I don't see this becoming a trend as I believe that the ridge will strengthen again and cause her to resume the more WNW motion she has exhibited for a number of days, at least since last Saturday. In fact, just on the latest satellite view she appears to "correct" herself and shift back closer to just north of due west. These wobbles will likely continue up until the time she makes landfall.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Thu Sep 02 2004 05:21 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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O.K., I'm going to go ahead and ask. We are talking about the ridge building in again and putting on a more WNW track. What are the chances of the ridge being stronger and pushing her more westerly than wnw meaning she could end up in the central gulf instead of the north central gulf? I know that there is another trough in the pacific nw right now that should come in and pick her up by the first to middle of next week but how far west could she possible get before that?
ShawnS
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I can see the trof and I can see the ridge building down from canada in this WV Loop.
Is this what is forecast to force the dramatic left turn shown by the models? And is there nothing left of the trof to encourage more northerly movement?
Thanks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Chopper Davie
Unregistered
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Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
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Doombot!
Unregistered
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Quote:
Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
32.78%
Define big hit...it will not be pretty, but you should be out of the worst of it.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Mike--just one teensy off-topic comment. TD#9 is definitely NOT a fish spinner. 5-day has it in the islands as an 80mph hurricane and one to definitely be watched once we are done with .
Soon to become the Terrible...and heading west
Just wanted to clarify. Now back to our regularly scheduled nightmare...
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 05:32 PM)
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
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and we'll get a handle on this, right?...NOT!
This storm is suprising me too. Thought the wobble meant something when I got on site a few hours ago...and now we are back on a Miami or whatever gig...and on and on..
Does look like is rebuilding again. Plenty of time for the storm to get wicked again...
hang tight everyone...this is gonna be a ride. Anyone know the name of that hapless little island that it went directly over?
san salvador. probably where columbus landed in 1492. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 02 2004 06:12 PM)
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Chopper Davie
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Hey everyone, this is my first time on the board. I'm in Coral Springs, FL, about 15 miles inland from the east coast, just north of Ft. Lauderdale. To those who know about the storm; what are my chances of taking a big hit?
32.78%
Define big hit...it will not be pretty, but you should be out of the worst of it.
So is the high pressure system going to force it further west (therefore south) than the latest advisory said? Are there any indications that the high pressure could strengthen enough to stop any significant northern movement, in turn sending it right into South Florida? Is there any chance (not a remote one, but a real chance backed up by evidence) that this could happen?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Local 6 in Orlando is reporting a projected landfall at Vero with a windspeed of only 105mph. Anybody think this is realistic?
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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it might have been myiguana. something like that!
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