Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 64 (Nate) , Major: 82 (Maria) Florida - Any: 92 (Irma) Major: 92 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | (show all)
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Color Sat pic [Re: berrywr]
      #23650 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:55 AM

Thanks, LakeCountySeat , awesome link!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: LSU Sat pic [Re: danielw]
      #23651 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:05 AM

John there is Red popping up in the N quadrant. In the middle of the orange area, from 11 to 12 o'clock position.
http://antares.csi.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_ir.html


Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 05:07 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Is Frances a dud? [Re: berrywr]
      #23652 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:09 AM

No wx info here. Just an attemept at humorous frustration.

I've watched millions flee Florida sucking up all the gas at most gas stations. No resupply because the ports are shut down. We're stuck in Florida waiting on this fickle hurricane.

When she was a Cat IV, I was worried. Now, I'm just ready for here to fly by me and drop some rain and move on.

Frances, I think you're a dud. Proove me wrong.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #23653 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:53 AM

no kidding! Frances is falling apart. I just cant see her coming back to life.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: 52255225]
      #23654 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM

could be. but notice the official forecast landfall is getting consistently later. that ridge breakdown some of the globals were on is looking very real right now. there's still lots of time to for the storm to change its trends.. the shear goes away and the storm will spin back up.
it's not something that can be easily forecast, shear.. quite often modeling suggests over and over that shear will die down but it never does.
also, keep the conversive chatter and redundant information off the main board. i posted something to that effect last night, and i mean it.
HF 1203z03september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: 52255225]
      #23655 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:05 AM

I personally see four scenarios. One is the current forecast. I give it about 50%. Two is that Frances continues on current track; but is cat 2 or less at landfall. 20% Three is that show moves more northerly, weakening as she goes and enters north of the Cape to GA/SC border at cat 1/2. 10%

Fourth scenario is the one that still concerns me. All of the above are still huge rain events; but the wind event is diminsished. The fourth is the biggest question. A stall after it gets to the Gulf Stream for extended period of time. Thus, allowing the dynamics to improve and rebuild back to Cat 4 after which the path is a who knows. 20%

Those are my ideas. Not changing my preps at all though.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re:LSU [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23656 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 AM

You may think that and it may come to be. But when milions of lives are at stake its best to error on the side of caution.

It's complacency that takes lives.

Frances is just temporarily weakening, she will be coming into more favorable conditions soon. The Gulf Stream is very warm.

MaryAnn


Quote:

Frances was not worth moving 2 million people what a dud!




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: 52255225]
      #23658 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 AM

What an answer to prayer! Frances has weakened considerably despite everyone's assurance that she be a CAT IV when making landfall. I appreciate the post last night (from Agent B) that first noted the increasing shear coming from W. Cuba.
Previously, NHC would not intensify the storm prior to landfall. Now that Frances has weakened, they are going against guidance and trying to strengthen it again, but with low confidence of course. Our biggest challenge in forecasting "mother nature" is human nature!
Frances has weakened considerably, but is still a force to be reckoned with - a minimal CAT III storm with destructive winds along the coast, widespread heavy rain, heavy surf, flooding, tornadoes, etc. It's the Bahamas which have taken the brunt of this one, and they will need help.
"Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

Edited by RevUp (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:19 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Following Lowest Pressure [Re: berrywr]
      #23659 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:14 AM

In looking at the current pressures I see that Miami Beach pressures are the lowest and still falling on the esat coast, and Naples is doning the same thing on the east coast. I used the falling pressures to track Hugo years ago. So after going through Charlie, I'll error on the side of caution and expect this storm to start moving west around the ridge and it should start building after it gets past the islands. Any comments would be helpful. We still have a mess here in our area and cleanup really has not started in most areas around here.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LeftOrlando
Unregistered




Re: Following Lowest Pressure [Re: firestar_1]
      #23660 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:20 AM

Tracks and intensity on this baby are so very uncertain. We left Orlando yesterday morning at 5:35 a.m. and we are now in Atlanta. I have no regrets on leaving. I may have had regrets if we stayed.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23661 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 AM

Is it a possibility that this storm could downgrade to a tropical storm before even making landfall?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: 52255225]
      #23662 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 AM

Always a possibility. Just like it is an equal or greater possibility it gets back to Cat 4. Best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: 52255225]
      #23663 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:31 AM

Could up dwelling even weaken this storm more over the next few days ? Is it going to slow down that much ?

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Track [Re: firestar_1]
      #23664 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 AM

Frances seems to have lost its punch from some southwesterly shear from a high pressure area to the SW of the storm that was not expected. Even though this southwesterly shear weakened the storm, it really has not been able to push the storm more to the right. This makes me think that the storm really still wants to stay left. I believe as it moves a bit farther north and closer to the other high north of it, that the flow around that high will push the storm directly to the west. It also will increase in strength again due to the slow movement and gulf stream. Don't let your guard down. It looks like it is weakening and slowing down which is buying us some more time. But, it can strengthen again and if it does turn due west it is not that far off shore.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: Rasvar]
      #23665 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:34 AM

If Frances fizzles, it will be interesting to watch the media and public reaction to having evac'd all the people. It was certainly a sound decision, but I wonder how much static the NHC will take. Worse, people may not take future warnings seriously.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Seems like they always....... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23666 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM

have a surprise or two for us don't they..... par for the course.... we sometimes think we have them all figured out, last weekend we said, come Thursday and we'd have a handle on Frances.... if we have a handle on it we're not holding on very tight....

bottom like, appears to me we are years away from truly being able to accurately forecast what these things will do as to track and intensity.... yeah, we've gotten really good over the past few years, with all the technology available.... but nature is not as an exact science as some want to make it.... that's the beauty of it all... wonder what her next surpise will be?

and it makes us all eat a little humble pie every now and then.... I've had my full for sure....

The residents of Florida did what they had to do.... cudos for their great response to what was at the time an epic disaster in the making.... THIS EVENT IS NOT OVER YET EITHER....

hopefully Frances will not find her former glory days... we'll see


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Seems like they always....... [Re: Frank P]
      #23667 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM

Okay, I am such an amature at this I could be in diapers, BUT, I have been watching the loops and I am seeing the eye try to form in the last one or two frames. I think she is going to gain some form and wind again. Not as bad, but my "gut" tells me she is not done yet.

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
maxwellincfl
Unregistered




Re: Is Frances a dud? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #23668 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 AM

Those of us living from Punta Gorda up through Arcadia, Lake Wales, Kissimmee, Orlando, Daytona will be happy if this storm becomes a "dud". Unfortunately, a cat 2/3 storm is not a dud. Many lost their roofs/businesses etc and were without power for 2 weeks after cat 2 conditions from Charley (Polk/Osceola counties).

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Seems like they always....... [Re: Frank P]
      #23671 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 AM

Back after a much needed break from the storm.....After reading some of the posts I have to feel that this is no time for complacency as this is still a very dangerous storm lurking in the Atlantic. I mean remember what only 90-100 mph winds did to Orlando during Charley and the winds for this storm are at 125mph still. Plus with the slow forward speed is something that no one really wanted to try to deal with and that is the immense amount of rain that this monster's gonna dump on S and C Florida.

Plus Atlanta is right in the cross hairs of a major flooding event to the north with the remnants of this monster.

I feel that the people who evac'd were very smart and I also think that people are still gun-shy over what happened with Charley too.

Just my .02 worth....


Also FYI, there are NO hotel rooms on I-75 available from Valdosta all the way to Dalton, Ga because of the evacuees, UGA and GT home openers, a sci-fi convention and other things. People are heading over to Alabama or SC to find rooms now.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 44 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 29757

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center