john03
Unregistered
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anyone see anything here?
if in northern keys, why EVACUATE SOUTH TO THE LOWER KEYS!!!! 
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666
Unregistered
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Frances was not worth moving 2 million people what a dud! 
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That's the 8 million dollar question at this hour. The forecast track would put the lower Keys further away than anybody trying to outrun the storm and traffic jams. I saw that too, and that's the only resoning I can come up with.
Put yourself in the forecaster's or the evacuee's shoe's, and you and I would probably do the same. At this time!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Naple ft myers? Thats where i would go if in s florida
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't think I would say something like that. You may entertain that thought, and try it again After She Is No Longer A Threat to anyone. Storms have no brains and they go where they will. She could just as well end up in my backyard.
However a benign threat she may appear to you and others, there are people on here, and in FL, that are terrified of .
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john03
Unregistered
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wait do i see red?
danielw what do you think movement is?
thinking 285 or less and slower....... eyewall looks better to me now and is expanding........
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Becky1322
Unregistered
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Wouldn't be going to the lower Keys for a million dollars---poor Miami-------
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Nice forum here. Anyway, I've looked at all the data as of 4:08 am ET and I expect on the 5 am advisory will maintain as a Category 3 storm, though clearly the 0547Z vortex message clearly shows she's weakening due to subsidence on her NW side and S to SSE shear over her at 300mb. I took a look at the CIMSS data and there is a hint of an eye reappearing and she appears to be regaining her symmetry, though a bit flattened. It may also be noted that may be undergoing an eye wall replacement at this time too. Tops have been cooling over the past couple of hours as well. Looking at the 300mb Analysis and 500 mb Analysis, I"m in agreement with official track, though I wouldn't at all be surprised if this system comes to a virtual standstill at some point late Friday as a blocking ridge continues to slightly build NNW of the storm with axises extending WSW in the GOM and ENE into a another center near Bermuda. If can get away from the shear, the warm Gulf Stream should reintensify her to a CAT 4 before landfall now projected for Saturday night. Recent water vapor imagery shows a decrease in dry air to it's N and NW, so I would think some strengthening is likely.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Welcome to the boards here Alaberry Patch, great info you gave out there. We will like to hear more as soon as you can. Ty scottsvb
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Bill, welcome to the board. I have a question for you. Nash Roberts of WWL-TV used to say the point with the lowest barometric pressure ahead of the storm usually gets the storm. Any reasoning behind that?
Scott you are welcome to put in your 2 cents on the question, too.
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:28 AM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I think its drifting right now but hard to tell.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay John, I see the eye like area you were talking about. The NE quadrant has some tremendous buildups.Warren Madden at is even talking about it.
Bet he's glad he's not flying this one.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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I remember Nash when I was a kid back in the late 70s. To answer your question; it's similar to a trough or shortwave...it is the area of lowest pressure or lowest height; thus the least resistance. Many may wonder why the storm isn't going to move north despite what appears to be two anticyclones in the upper air; reason is there's an axis or you may think of it as a longwave ridge given it is a full latitude ridge. A ridge axis if strong enough; currently 5930 over Bermuda and 5920 near Daytona Bch. FL is a barrier to hurricanes. I wouldn't at all be surprised if you see wobble west a bit over the next 24 hours and as I mentioned don't be surprised if she stalls a bit as the ridge has actually built over the last 12 hours by about 20 decameters. I've noted the cooling tops as I mentioned a moment ago. Everybody has to remember eyewall replacement weakens the storm; once done, it begins to reintensify. This is a normal process. As I said, there is some shear over the system too, but the huge area of subsidence from yesterday is almost gone.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Seems like its W side Bill still has alot of subsidence,,,you agree?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks, I didn't think many here knew Nash.
The latest hourly roundup has Miami Beach with 29.76 (1007.8mb), followed by Flamingo,FL with 29.79 (1008.8mb).
Does that fit your profiling?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/obs.html
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:43 AM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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EyeWall Replacement Cycles: "Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).Courtesy of the NOAA Hurricane Research Division at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is back up just filed their first position report.
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LakeCountySeat
Unregistered
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Just a link to the besk animated satellite photos I have ever seen...
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/%7Erickk/frances.html
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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So I interpret this as meaning that may 'stall' and plunge more west than NW because of the 'axis' status?
That should make Emergency Mgt officials nervous from Miami-Dade to Brevard. Any contemplated changes in the track as a result?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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No! I looked at a couple of sites to check for varying wavelengths on the watervapor shots and with the exception of the NW side; the atmosphere has moistened. Take a look over by Texas and you will see "dry" air associated with a shortwave over the Midwest. Don't get me wrong, there is some subsidence there; but I'm inclined to believe the shear over the system is what's disrupting the eye mechanism right now and CER.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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