C.J.inNaples
Unregistered
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My dad just commented to me about the apparent "west" movement that may just be a wobble, as many of you have. Does anyone have a site that has radar loops, or even a better a Bahama radar?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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I think that we should all wait and see what is going on after an hour or two...
Think that it is rebuilding on the west side of the storm more than moving west of wnw. As the storm is expanding out again in all directions..especially the west it looks like W movement but think its more wnw.
Yeah..could be in denial but think its more an illusion.
Think its wnw.
Ed Rappaport btw is on tv again an hour after he earlier explained Miami and Dade/Broward look a little better elaborating on watching current trend where it does look like it could be rebuilding on the west side and they are watching for a westward trend.
hmmmn
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Due west movt now the last 5 frames. I guess that we will know at 5pm if it's a wobble or not .
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Blue sky, sunny and hot here, with some variable wind. Don't have a weather station, so can't give wind speeds, but nothing major. I got nothing of that last band, it was kind of ragged by the time it got here, and I guess what was left went to either side of me. Hasn't rained here since some time last night. Typical hot and muggy South Florida afternoon, except for the breeze.
They just got the Miami doppler back up and running.
Bill
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Alex.K
Unregistered
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Quote:
All of a sudden the SW part of the system has exploded. What gives??
ShawnS
Do you mean exploded as in got stronger or discentigrated?
The weakening anyway, appears to be at an end. But will the storm strengthan?
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i agree that the "fun and games" are fixing to begin.... i sure hope those toward the southend of the warnings didn't let their guard down. anyone have an idea of the speed now that is starting to go more westward now? does it have time to gain strength?
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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This may be a trend reflected by a few global models and what the has been doing all week.
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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My gosh! That graphic of the winds was both incredible and horrible. Thank you for posting it.
According that graphic Eleuthra is currently directly in the eye. The worst is yet to come. The back side of the winds will push battering waves and storm surge directly into the harbor and punish the south end. It's not looking good for Abaco either.
We have a home in Casuarina, just a tiny settlement of locals which is directly between Sandy Point and Hole In The Wall. Basically in the center of the bottom V of Abaco.
During Floyd the water came completely over the peninsula (too small to see on most maps) and emptied into the creek behind my house, then ran back out to see following the creek. All of our friends at Casuarina have thankfully evacuated and they are at Cherokee which is much higher. But I cannot even imagine the waves pounding in there right now. Even on a good day the Atlantic waves crash impressively.
Map of Bahamas as requested by someone. Good maps- click to zoom on particular island.
http://users.powernet.co.uk/mkmarina/bahamas/bahamas.html
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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This storm is starting to look weird. It almost looks like the center wants to go ...SW????
ShawnS
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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coop, good to read ya post again. beginning to worry you may have headed north already
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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For any of the Mets here.
What reason would a local television guy have for showing a graphic having the storm going north 50-75 miles offshore?
Maybe because it is still within the realm of possibilty...can't rule anything out yet.
WKMG Channel 6 in Orlando.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 06:02 PM)
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maddiemae
Unregistered
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I agree! I evacated from the Space Coast to Tampa. Didn't want to take any chances. was no fun even though he came from the other coast! I was terrified throughout it and was also w/o electricity for a week. Transformers were sparking everywhere during the strom & I thought for sure my roof would start on fire. I said I would never stay through another one & I didn't!
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Tammy
Unregistered
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FYI I see Jacksonville FL is now under a Hurrican Watch. Actually it's from Flager Beach up to Fernandina Beach. This is about 60 miles south of me! We are way down in low country in south east ga. Nothing usual is happing in my small town yet. We are only 30 miles from the Florida border in Callahan FL.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I am not a met, but I think I can give you the answer. The ETA model has a similar track, so they must be using that. The does not agree at all, however. If that is true, it is dangerous to take a forecast from one model and just use it.
Just a guess.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Think we've got the reason behind the weakening down pat here...let me see if I can explain it pretty well.
Remember the upper low that had been located to the west of as it traversed towards the Bahamas? Once it reached S Florida, it ceased movement and began to weaken, becoming nearly indiscernable on water vapor imagery. This was the status for a day or so, until yesterday.
Analysis of the visible and water vapor satellite imagery from yesterday shows that this weak upper low -- also reflected in the vorticity (spin) fields from the relatively high resolution RUC model -- and completed somewhat of a Fujiwhara-type of interaction, leading to moving northward for a time and then the upper low becoming entrained into ' circulation. Satellite showed that this upper low was entrained on the southwest side of the storm, moving around into the storm in a counterclockwise fashion. This is also consistant with the eyewall first breaking up on the SW side of the storm and later the erosion of the northeast eyewall and the dry slot to the west of the storm.
Essentially, had lunch yesterday afternoon, ending up with an upset stomach. Now that it's had time to digest the low, it is back to strengthening over the open waters near the Bahamas. Recon should be out there shortly to provide a new fix; I imagine that a better defined eye and slightly lower pressure might be the end result. I don't expect any rapid or significant strengthening, but feel that the weakening trend is over.
Ivan is looking mighty healthy out in the E Atlantic today and is well on it's way to becoming a hurricane. Perhaps moving ever so slightly south of due west right now, it may well become a major hurricane in the next 3-5 days. as it approaches the islands. These "deep track" storms are often times the strongest ones, with climatological paths into Texas, Florida, or across many of the big islands, so it'll certainly be one to watch in the not-too-distant future. But for now...all eyes are on .
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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Quote:
For any of the Mets here.
What reason would a local television guy have for showing a graphic having the storm going north 50-75 miles offshore?
WKMG Channel 6 in Orlando.
May be just me but I don't like Ch 6's weather casters.
they used that graphic that does NOT follow what the says the track will be. They are not doing anyone any good by doing that. I prefer ch 9
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well as some have noted it has moved more westward over past couple of hours, best bet is too just continue to watch this trend, given recent history of numerous jogs northward and westward. Remember slow moving storms do jog quite a bit.
Looking at latest shear and shear tendency maps theres still some healthy west and west southwest shear over the storm as upper level anticyclone is sitting south of FL over central and western Cuba. Although shear tendency shows a decreasing shear values between FL and northern Bahama islands. Thus theres a good chance this could strengthen some as it moves over this area "slowly''. I 'am thinking probaly cat 3 and landfall but this could easily be slightly stronger or weaker so I'am taking middle classification for now. I'am sticking with landfall south of cape and north Jupiter Inlet although recent movement westward will need to be watched closely...
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musol
Unregistered
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i want to thank all of you for an outstanding site here.
i have been reading your comments for days and you are all much better thatn the national media outlets...and so interesting.
i have learned so much about steering currents from you..among many other things.
long live all of us hurricane heads!
great work.
as for ...she is something else.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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I agree. Channel 9 is my choice, as well.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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alan -- WKMG is an Accuweather station. They've been calling for that track for a week now and apparently have yet to change. They did the same with , calling for it to move further north offshore (and not impacting the Orlando area). I can't say definitively one way or the other, but I'll bet you it's the Accuweather influence...
...and they're proving why many mets. in the professional community absolutely despise Accuweather. They're also taking a huge risk (one unlikely to pay off yet again) with such a forecast.
JB just called. He's coming down there to personally pummel you tonight...LOL 
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Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 06:06 PM)
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